The explosions of Nord Lines 1 and 2, transporting Russian gas to Germany, represent a new development of the war in Ukraine, and a deepening of the energy crisis in Europe, in a step that would further deepen the European Union's involvement in the war.
Russia and Western countries accuse each other of being behind these bombings, although the investigations have not yet been completed, but there is consensus that the explosions that occurred were deliberate, and a state was behind them, and they were related to the war in Ukraine.
If we follow the logic of those who have an interest in cutting off gas supplies to Europe and who are affected, we will find that Germany and the European Union in general are the most affected by the interruption of the flow of Russian gas before completing their preparations to fill their tanks and prepare alternatives.
According to the Anadolu Agency, the United States, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states and Britain are among the most prominent beneficiaries of the interruption of Russian supplies to Europe, and each of them has an interest in the bombings in the Baltic Sea, according to mutual accusations, without meaning that any of these countries are actually involved in These bombings, before the results of the criminal investigation.
irreparable damage
"It will be useless forever after sabotage," German authorities conclude if Nord Stream 1 and 2 are not quickly repaired, revealing that the mastermind behind the bombings is seeking to have it out of service beyond next winter.
According to the Russian authorities, if the right conditions are provided, the pipeline will be repaired, but this will take at least 6 months.
This situation will make Germany suffer severely in the coming winter, although it managed to fill its tanks with rates ranging between 80% and 90%, which is enough for a period not exceeding 3 months.
Der Spiegel magazine quotes German government departments as saying that the damage to the Nord Stream lines was so extensive that it was impossible to restore them.
The flow of gas from the Russian pipeline continued for several days after the explosion, reflecting that it was full of gas, including the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, whose exploitation was frozen even before its official start-up, due to the repercussions of the Ukrainian war, while Nord Stream 1 stopped a few weeks before the three explosions.
It is worth noting that 3 explosions targeted the Stream tubes 1 and 2, on September 27, and took place in international waters in the Baltic Sea, before a fourth leak was discovered on September 28, but it was less in size than its predecessors.
The strongest possible response
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, considered the bombing of the two lines a deliberate attempt to disrupt the European energy infrastructure.
But its threat that this attempt will face the strongest possible response carries an implicit message directed to Moscow of being behind these bombings in the midst of European and American support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian army.
The President of the European Commission could not issue a warning of this kind if the accused was Washington or any of the other European countries.
Did Russia shoot in the foot?
Most Western fingers point to Russia for being behind the bombing, and Moscow responds that the accusation is "expected and absurd", and the Kremlin spokesman notes that the leaked Russian gas is very expensive.
Russia is also affected by the bombings, because the gas pipelines are Russian and the leaking gas is Russian, and it is hard to accept that they shot themselves in the foot.
But this is not enough to exonerate Russia, for every war has its costs, and some losses can be sacrificed for greater goals. Moscow excelled in the war of deception, and practiced it repeatedly, the most famous of which was when it denied and underestimated accusations that it had mobilized its forces to attack Ukraine, which is what actually happened.
The Nord Stream pipeline explosions came one day before the announcement of the results of the referendums that took place in 4 Ukrainian provinces under the control of the Russian army (Kherson, Zaporizhia, Lugansk, Donetsk).
It is in Moscow's interest that a major event, such as the gas pipeline bombings, overshadows the vote of the four provinces in favor of joining Russia, the results of which Ukraine and Western countries vehemently refuse to acknowledge.
The world's media focuses on the Nord Stream pipeline bombings, with little light on Russia's willingness to annex Ukrainian provinces, not supported even by Moscow's allies, let alone the European Union and the United States.
As for the Russian damage from blowing up a pipeline it owns and the gas it produces, it can be compensated for by the significant increase in gas prices that followed the explosions.
In addition, Nord Stream 1 has been suspended since the end of last August, after Russia reduced its supplies to Germany, under the pretext of making reforms, and it currently needs a stronger argument so that these reforms take months instead of days and weeks, to continue putting pressure on Germany at the height of the winter, and prompting it to abandon its support Ukraine to arm itself and withdraw its sanctions against Moscow.
Washington has an interest
Moscow does not hesitate to accuse the United States of being behind the bombing, and it cites many evidence to that without confirmed evidence, but it calls for an investigation into this file.
The website AviaPro - affiliated with Russian security services - reported that two weeks before the Nord Stream bombings, strange activity of NATO aircraft and ships was observed in the region.
The Russian website indicates that NATO planes and helicopters flew over the area where the Nord Stream pipeline exploded, and hinted at the involvement of the West in what happened.
This news intersects with what was published by the German magazine Der Spiegel on September 27, that the US intelligence agency warned Germany of possible attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, weeks before the gas leak from Nord Stream.
But Der Spiegel did not reach the same conclusion as the Russian site. If Washington wanted to blow up gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, why did Germany warn?
Moscow also bases its accusation of Washington being behind the bombings on leaks of US President Joe Biden, in early February, who said that his country would end Nord Stream 2 if Moscow intervened militarily in Ukraine.
Poland or Ukraine?
The former Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, posted a tweet on Twitter after the bombings, in which he said thank you to the United States, indicating that Washington was behind these bombings.
"I am happy that (Nord Stream), against which all Polish governments have fought for 20 years, is paralyzed in 3 quarters, which is good for Poland," Sikorski said in another tweet.
However, he added that his words are just analysis and not based on information, yet he puts Poland within the circle of countries benefiting from the bombings, and therefore one of the countries that can be accused.
Ukraine is also not excluded, especially as it hastened to accuse Russia of being behind the gas pipeline bombing, and it is in its interest to worsen the relationship between Moscow and NATO, which will enhance European and American military support for its army.
Kiev does not want to be the scapegoat for the US army's exhaustion of the Russian bear, but rather wants to directly implicate NATO in its war against Russia, even if this leads to the outbreak of a nuclear war.