After Russia annexed 4 new Ukrainian regions, what are Ukraine's options? Is it heading to internationalize the war?

Kiev

- After 7 months of its war, and regardless of international and international rejection, Russia announces the annexation of 4 new regions to its territory (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson), after Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

Not all of these four regions are under the control of the Russian forces, but are considered the hottest fronts ever;

This will introduce the war to a new turning point, placing Ukraine - whether it likes it or not - in front of additional reality and challenges, and forcing it to adopt new strategies for the next stage, which is full of possibilities.

According to the military departments of the regions of Ukraine, Russia controls 99% of the Lugansk region, 57% of Donetsk, 67% of Zaporozhye, and 57% of the Kherson region;

With partial control of not more than 4% of each of the Kharkiv regions in the east and Mykolaiv in the south.

Ignition of the four fronts

The biggest possibilities, according to officials and experts, are that the fronts of these areas will ignite more, and Russia will increase the size and quantity of its bombing operations on various Ukrainian regions and cities, especially on “vital infrastructure.”

Military expert Mikhailo Zhirukhov says that "there is no dispute that Russia's war is targeting all of Ukraine, not only the Donbass region as they (the Russians) announced previously (which includes the Donetsk and Lugansk regions), nor only the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions."

The expert believes that the fronts of these areas will inevitably flare up soon, but in favor of Ukraine, explaining in an interview with Al Jazeera Net: “The Russian forces need time to mobilize and send forces, and turn these areas into bases for their forces, as they did in Crimea after 2014.” limit his opinion.

He added, "The annexation came in response to the rapid and sudden liberation operations in the Kharkiv region, and the latter continues with a momentum that will soon increase in the east and south, with the arrival of more Western military aid, taking advantage - inevitably - of the Russian "arranging the ranks" period, if Putin does not make a crazy choice by using Nuclear weapons also threatened."

Operations stop and start again

Here, experts believe that Russia may soon announce the cessation of the war, which it calls, to this day, a "special operation", with the expectation that other operations will be announced.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, the military expert at the "Ukrainian Institute for the Future" and the former advisor for military security affairs in the Ukrainian parliament, Ivan Stupak, says, "Most likely, Russia will announce the launch of a "liberation" or "against terrorism" operation for the areas it annexed, to expel the Ukrainians from them; This is for internal consumption, with continuous advertising, promotion and justification campaigns for what is happening.”

He added, "This will not change anything on the ground. The Russians will fight as they have been doing, and they will bomb every place near or far without change. As for the Ukrainian forces, they will continue to strike them and liberate the lands."

Crowds carrying Russian flags in Moscow's Red Square after the annexation of 4 new Ukrainian regions to Moscow (Anatolia)

The strategy of "internationalization of war"

In parallel with its insistence on the liberation of territory by force, and its refusal to negotiate with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin is at the helm, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, Ukraine appears to be following the path and strategy of "internationalizing the war".

This was evident in the most prominent and first Ukrainian reaction, as President Volodymyr Zelensky requested urgent accession to NATO membership, and the implementation of the "Kyiv Security Document" by the Western "partners" until this is done.

Political analyst Viktor Taran believes that "the Ukraine war has de facto gone global. The whole world has been affected by it, and threatened with disasters because of it, and this will continue if he does not intervene strongly, especially if Putin resorts to the option of using weapons of mass destruction, which Washington has already warned of, and vowed to respond." on him".

And he adds, "Putin - originally - wants this, as he is heading after the occupation of the four regions to accuse Ukraine's allies of targeting his country's territory directly, regardless of whether he improves or miscalculates."

Building the army and fixing the feet

In addition to the above, analysts believe that Kyiv should adopt other strategies, including, according to political analyst Hennadiy Kurban, rebuilding and modernizing the army, according to NATO standards and military capabilities, while building 3 defensive lines on the entire border with Russia, Belarus and the occupied territories.

Kurban also adds, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, "The country should not give calm and serenity to the Russians and their loyalists, and it must establish its feet in the European Union as a member and as a reliable partner in the camp of the West, and convince the latter and the world of the importance of continuing and tightening sanctions more on Russia and its allies until the end."

Big and "serious" losses

Under the expected scenarios, it remains certain that Ukraine suffered a great loss after losing control of its four regions after Crimea, which constitute about 20% of its territory.

The Donbass region (Donetsk and Lugansk) provided about 20% of the GDP (about 180 billion before it was partially occupied in 2014, and about $100 billion after that), and contained most of the wealth of minerals and their heavy industries, and about 75% of the coal wealth alone.

While the Zaporozhye region includes, for example, but not limited to, the nuclear plant is the largest in Europe, and supplies the country with about 25% of its need for electric power, which may threaten a deficit in this sector.

As for the Kherson region, it has the most fertile lands in the most temperate regions of the country in terms of climate, which is why it supplied Ukraine and exporting countries with millions of tons of crops of grain, corn, melon, oil products and others annually.