The "white paper" resolves the first session of Parliament... Is Lebanon facing a presidential vacancy again?

Beirut -

The first session called by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to elect a new president for the country constituted a preliminary test of intentions between the political blocs. Analysts consider it as a starting whistle for the presidential elections, in a country that has not witnessed, since the Taif Agreement in 1989, presidential elections within the constitutional deadline. It was followed by an extension or a vacuum.

And what the House of Representatives witnessed on Thursday, September 29, by dropping 63 white papers, representing half minus one of the number of members, reflects an actual translation of the results of the parliamentary elections last May, which produced for the first time after 2005 a House without a majority or a minority, and its complex structure outside the bilateral March 14 and March 8, made it a fertile ground for confrontation and disruption.

The first session of the session was attended by 122 out of 128 deputies in Parliament.

The most prominent of those who dropped 63 white papers were the representatives of the Free Patriotic Movement, the duo of Hezbollah and the Amal movement. The vote count showed that Representative Michel Moawad received 36 votes (the Kataeb Party, the Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and others voted for him), and 11 votes for Salim Eddeh (some independents voted for him). He is a politically inactive businessman and the son of the late Minister Michel Eddé, and 12 votes for other names.

The second session of the session was canceled after the votes were counted, as a result of losing the quorum, due to the withdrawal of a number of deputies, most notably the deputies of the two blocs of Hezbollah and the Amal movement.

Constitutional Path

The Lebanese president is elected from the Maronite Christian community according to the confessional system, and constitutionally requires the vote of two-thirds of the total members of Parliament, ie 86 deputies, and in the second session by an absolute majority, ie 65 deputies.

The constitutional deadline for the election of a new president began in early September, a month has passed, and it will continue until October 31, and may include sessions that do not result in the election of a president, which will enter the country with a presidential vacancy on the first of next November.

Initial scene

Political writer Khaldoun Al-Sharif places the first session in the field of preparation and preparation, refusing to count it among the actual sessions that might result in the announcement of the name of a new president of the country.

While writer and political analyst Ali Hamadeh believes that the session was exploratory and did not crystallize the options of most of the powerful forces, "Neither the March 8 party led by Hezbollah was able to come out with one candidate for the whole team, nor did the other forces named either change or sovereign (March 14). ) or independent, I was able to find common ground around one candidate.”

On Al Jazeera Net, Hamada describes what happened as a "scene of loss", because the strongest party, that is, Hezbollah, does not have a parliamentary majority and is unable to impose its candidate, and this was translated with its allies into the white paper that establishes the presidential vacancy.

As for his opponents, "they are distracted and unable to secure a quorum for a broad political consensus to impose an anti-Hezbollah candidate."

For his part, political analyst Ali Shukr told Al Jazeera Net that the first session expressed the contradiction of the Lebanese political scene.

On the one hand, the legal quorum for the session was arranged as if there was a government administration, and on the other hand, it reflected political imbalance in Parliament and sensitivity between the blocs, and weaving an understanding between them became more difficult than ever before in previous parliaments.

The results of the May 2022 elections reshuffled the cards in Parliament, as a result of the advance of the Lebanese Forces Party (headed by Samir Geagea) in exchange for a relative decline of the Free Patriotic Movement headed by Gibran Bassil (President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law), which exacerbated the difficulties of accessing one of the candidates. The Maronites, namely Geagea and the two allies of Hezbollah, Bassil, and the head of the Marada movement, Suleiman Franjieh, were elected to the presidency.

Observers believe that the shake-up of the Sunni sect’s representation in the parliamentary elections after the Future Movement’s absence from it for the first time, may complicate the possibility of internal consensus on the identity of a new president, according to the usual approach in Lebanon, especially since President Aoun in 2016, was elected after two and a half years of presidential vacuum, crowning The fruit of the settlement, and the most prominent godfather of it was his ally Hezbollah and Hariri, who came as prime minister, and his most prominent Christian opponent is the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea.

The Council failed to hold a second session to elect the president after losing the constitutional quorum (Al-Jazeera)

After the first session

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Sharif mentions that Lebanon has historically used an external "friend" in the presidential elections.

He called for the need to read the tripartite Saudi-French-US statement issued last week on Lebanon, and stressed at the time the need to "elect a president who can unite the Lebanese people and work with regional and international actors to overcome the current crisis."

Al-Sharif said, "No political team that is currently balanced can send its candidate, because if there is no agreement on the name of a president with external and regional support summoned by Lebanon, it is difficult to hold presidential elections that pave the way for crossing to the Republican Palace."

The political writer believes that what is not available now, i.e. international and regional incompatibility, may become available with the demarcation of the maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel and with American mediation, if it occurs.

He said that Hezbollah's acceptance of any naval settlement later, "means that it is ready for other settlements, the first of which is the presidency, to rid its nurturing environment of the tragic conditions in which all Lebanese are living."

He adds that Lebanon needs a consensual president and a reformist prime minister, otherwise the donor and friendly countries will not deal with him, and "so far, the name of a consensual president for Lebanon is not seriously available to the public."

For his part, Shukr says that the first session put the political forces in front of a difficult confrontation of merit, "that will make it difficult to anticipate the personality of the next president."

He mentions the extent of the political repercussions, positive or negative, that the path of the nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington could leave on the Lebanese political scene.

He does not agree with Al-Sharif about the possibility of reaching the name of a consensual president who does not belong to a balanced Christian party in the country, "because this will deepen sectarian and political sensitivities, in light of the frantic struggle over the constitutional powers of the presidency, and Christians may refuse this time the arrival of a president who does not reflect the pulse of their street."

On the other hand, Hamadeh says that Berri (the head of the Amal Movement, an ally of Hezbollah), may continue his political maneuvering through parliament, in support of the arrival of his presidential candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, and to block the way for any other candidate, most notably his opponent Basil, which doubles the embarrassment of Hezbollah, which stands in front of two candidate allies. , while Bassil served as a shadow president during Aoun's era.

Hamadeh believes that Franjieh, despite the difficulty of his access, is a candidate from the Hezbollah duo, the Amal Movement, to Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to the point that he may be a favorite candidate for the banking system's tycoons, according to him.

It is expected that the country will enter a presidential vacancy, which may push the name of Army Commander Joseph Aoun to be agreed upon as president with internal and external support, "but until his arrival he needs a settlement with Aoun's political team and Franjieh, and most importantly with Hezbollah and its internal and regional strategy. It lasts for months."