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The implications of the US President's declaration to defend Taiwan militarily
Taiwan receives more military support from the United States.
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Biden vowed to defend Taiwan.
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Putin and Jinping relations are developing.
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US President Joe Biden said in an interview broadcast on September 18, 2022 that US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, in his clearest statement yet on the issue.
China responded by emphasizing that his statements represented a "severe violation" of Washington's policy toward the island, and Beijing added that it "regretted and strongly opposes" Biden's pledge to take such a step.
Continuous American provocations
The United States has adopted a number of provocative policies directed against China in connection with their conflict over Taiwan, which can be detailed as follows:
1- Letting go of strategic ambiguity
Washington has begun to abandon the policy of strategic ambiguity and adopt policies that confirm that Washington is now supporting Taiwan's independence from China.
This began at the end of the Donald Trump administration, when the US-Taiwan partnership was emphasized, and restrictions on diplomatic cooperation were lifted. Trump also reversed the recognition of the Taiwan Relations Act, which was concluded by Congress at the end of the seventies of the twentieth century, and clearly affirms that the government of the People’s Republic of China is the government The only legitimacy that represents all of China, and that Taiwan is part of China.
2- Commitment to defend Taiwan
US President Joe Biden affirmed his administration's commitment to protecting Taiwan in his September 19 statements, and defending it in the event of an invasion by China, stressing that his response to Taiwan will differ from his response to the Ukraine war, in which Washington avoided intervening militarily to defend Ukraine.
This statement reflects an affirmation that Washington's policy is heading towards escalation against China, and that it may gradually move to impose greater sanctions on Beijing during the coming period. The US administration revealed, in September, its intention to expand restrictions imposed on US shipments to China of semiconductors used in intelligence. Artificial intelligence and chip-making tools in October 2022, in an indication of Washington’s desire to limit China’s technological superiority, and to use the Taiwan crisis to adopt policies aimed, in the last analysis, at weakening the Chinese economy, and then slowing Beijing’s transformation into one of the major powers capable of competing with Washington.
3- Washington's military support for Taiwan
The US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee approved a bill entitled "Taiwan Policy 2022", which aims to enhance US military support for Taiwan worth $4.5 billion over four years. The law also provides $2 billion in loans to help Taiwan buy weapons.
This was preceded by the approval of the US administration to sell Taiwan $1.1 billion in arms to strengthen its defenses, which included 60 Harpoon missiles capable of sinking warships, and 100 short-range Sidewinder missiles capable of intercepting missiles or drones, in addition to Maintenance contract for the Taiwanese radar system.
Two American warships, the Chancellorsville and Antietam, also crossed international waters in the Taiwan Strait, and before that the aircraft carrier Reagan was returned to the South China Sea.
4- Encircling China through blocs
The Indo-Pacific region has become a top priority for the United States to encircle the influence of China, as one of its most important competitors.
This was manifested in the Okos agreement with Australia and Britain in September 2021, the return of the Quad security dialogue to the spotlight, in addition to the economic framework for the Indo-Pacific region that Biden presented during his last Asian tour, which included 14 countries.
firm Chinese response
Accordingly, Beijing is following a set of steps in dealing with the issue, which can be detailed as follows:
1- Maintaining the military option
On September 22, Chinese President Xi Jinping again called on his country's armed forces to focus on their mission of preparing for war, indicating that the military option would remain on the table, if Washington sought to incite Taiwan to formally declare its independence from China. What confirms this is that these statements were issued four days after Washington pledged to intervene militarily to defend Taiwan, which means that Beijing does not care about Biden's latest announcement, and that his statements will not make Beijing retreat from the military annexation of Taiwan.
Beijing is conducting maneuvers near the island, such as the one announced, in August 2022, which was like trying to impose a naval blockade on the island, as Beijing warned against passing through the points covered by the maneuvers.
China also participated in the "Vostok-2022" maneuvers with the Russian army and the armies of other allied countries.
China has also strengthened its security presence in the South Pacific by signing a broad security treaty with the Solomon Islands to expand its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
2- Enhancing military capabilities
China plans to become the most powerful army in the world by the centenary of the People's Liberation Army in 2027, and to make it a major power by 2049. in 2022.
3- Prepare for possible Western sanctions
Beijing supports the “Cross Border” financial system as an alternative to the “SWIFT” system, in order to carry out trade exchange between countries without relying on the US dollar, but rather in local currencies.
She stressed the importance of this during the summit of the Shanghai Organization in Samarkand.
This reflects that Beijing is benefiting from the lessons of the Ukrainian war, and is studying Western sanctions and ways to undermine them.
China has also established several international alliances, such as the BRICS and Shanghai, the 16 + 1 mechanism between China and some European countries, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which makes it able to guarantee the presence of countries supporting it in its confrontation with the United States.
4- Maintaining partnership with Russia
A joint Russian-Chinese statement was issued in early February 2022, confirming that international relations are entering a new era, along with the extension of the bilateral treaty on good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation in 2021.
It is expected that Beijing will move to consolidate its relations with Russia by continuing to buy Russian crude, which European countries stop buying, in addition to opening the way for Chinese small and medium companies to study job and investment opportunities in Russia, taking advantage of the vacuum of Western withdrawal from Russia, which practically undermines the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy, and finally confirms that the international system is moving to a multipolar system.
5- Employing the weapon of sanctions
Beijing threatens to impose sanctions on countries that recognize Taiwan and have diplomatic relations with it, which is what happened with some Pacific islands, such as Palau, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Nauru, because of their confirmation of their diplomatic relationship with Taipei in March 2022. It came to the point of actually imposing sanctions, as happened With Lithuania, in August 2022, suspending all forms of exchange with the Ministry of Transport and Communications after the minister's visit to Taiwan, as well as imposing sanctions on Taiwanese politicians for supporting separatism, and suspending the export of some goods to Taiwan in August 2022.
Beijing has other options to escalate sanctions against the West, which is to disrupt the movement of trade in the Taiwan Strait, through which ships pass on their way from China and Japan to Europe and the United States, and about half of the global container fleet passes through, which makes its disruption a negative impact on supply chains. international access in the South China Sea, and increasing transit time through the alternative strait represented by the Luzon Strait.
Military escalation brakes
There are a set of brakes limiting the military confrontation between China and the United States over Taiwan, which can be detailed as follows:
1- The cost and benefit of the Chinese invasion
It is noted that the chances of a sudden escalation of military tension, in the near term, are not high, based on the fact that Beijing is still following cautious gradual policies, as China studies many aspects, the most important of which is that the Taiwan Strait is located at the intersection of global trade supply, and that Taiwan is the largest factory in the world for chips and semiconductors.
So any attack means delaying the achievement of the nation's rejuvenation goal pursued by the Chinese president, which would be damaged in the event of war, and the global economy into a severe recession.
2- The limits of the American position
Despite the statements promoted by the United States to provide military support to Taiwan, a military solution is not a realistic option before Washington, given that any direct confrontation with China will develop into a nuclear confrontation, which Washington cannot do.
It should also be taken into account that no country or alliance is committed to protecting Taiwan's sovereignty and political independence, and the United States does not even recognize Taiwan as a country despite lifting all diplomatic restrictions.
quarrel
It is clear from the Chinese-American interaction that Beijing will not give up its escalation towards Taiwan, in order to maintain the current status of the island unchanged, i.e. an island that is not recognized internationally.
On the other hand, the United States is trying to provoke Beijing by using diplomatic and military tools, in order to justify imposing economic sanctions against Beijing, and trying to encircle it with military alliances, in a way that limits China's development and its transformation into a major power capable of antagonizing America in all aspects.
Beijing supports the “Cross Border” financial system as an alternative to the “SWIFT” system, in order to carry out trade exchange between countries without relying on the US dollar, but rather in local currencies.
Chances of a sudden escalation of military tension in the near term are not high, given that Beijing continues to pursue cautious gradual policies.
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