[Current Affairs Observation] How much will the far-right victory affect Italy and the EU?

  Italy recently held parliamentary elections, and the far-right party Fraternity Italia became the largest party, and its leader, Georgia Meloni, is expected to become prime minister.

Although some European media are concerned that the "right turn" of the Italian political situation will have an impact on the EU, analysts believe that the new Italian government is likely to continue its previous policy towards Europe in general, and it also faces considerable domestic challenges.

  Voting in the Italian parliamentary elections will be held on September 25.

Data released by the Italian Ministry of the Interior on September 26 showed that the center-right coalition composed of the Italian Brotherhood, the League and Forza Italia won about 44% of the votes, of which the Italian Brotherhood won 26% of the vote, making it the largest in the parliament. A single party; the center-left party alliance won 26% of the vote, of which the Democratic Party won 19%; the Five Star Movement won about 15% of the vote.

  The Italian Parliament consists of two houses, the Senate with 200 seats and the House of Representatives with 400 seats.

The center-right coalition will get more than half of the seats in both the House and Senate, based on the votes.

The center-right coalition has previously reached an agreement to elect the leader of the party with the highest number of votes as prime minister, which means Meloni is expected to become Italy's first female prime minister.

However, the specific candidate for the prime minister still needs to wait for the presidential nomination, and the result of the formation of the cabinet must also pass the confidence vote of the parliament.

  Meloni, 45, was born in Rome and was elected to the House of Representatives in 2006, according to Italian media reports.

In 2008, the 31-year-old Meloni became the youngest minister in Italian history when he became a youth minister in the Berlusconi government.

In 2012, Meloni participated in the creation of the Italian Brotherhood Party and was elected leader of the party in 2014.

  In the Italian parliamentary elections in 2018, the Italian Fraternal Party formed an alliance with the Alliance Party and Forza Italia, but the party won only 4.5% of the vote.

In 2020, Meloni was elected president of the European Union of Conservatives and Reformists.

Before the election, the Italian Brotherhood party's support rate in the polls was around 25%, and it was widely expected that the party would win the election.

  Some media analysts pointed out that the victory of the Italian fraternal party was first of all due to the dissatisfaction of the people with the status quo.

Since the beginning of this year, Italy has experienced repeated epidemics, rising energy and raw material prices have led to inflation, and the economic situation has been grim.

Although Draghi's government took some measures, it caused divisions within the ruling coalition, and Draghi was eventually forced to resign.

Faced with this situation, the people desperately hope that the political situation can be restored to stability.

  Meloni's Brotherhood of Italy is the only major party not involved in Draghi's government, so the party has portrayed itself as a "spokesperson" of dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Meloni's campaign not only responded to voters' economic concerns, but his Italian interests and anti-immigration propositions also attracted some voters.

  In addition, Meloni's campaign strategy also played a role in winning the election.

She formed an early alliance with Salvini's Coalition and Berlusconi's Forza Italia.

Paying attention to the creation of personal image and actively using social media to shorten the distance with voters have also accumulated a certain popularity for her.

  Many European media are worried about the victory of the far-right party of the Italian Brotherhood, believing that the Italian political arena will "turn to the right" and that there will be cracks in the relationship between Italy and the European Union.

However, analysts pointed out that judging from the political situation in Italy in recent years, the policy propositions of far-right parties tend to become moderate after they come to power. If Meloni becomes prime minister, it may bring some policy changes. The relationship will not be completely dead.

  At home in Italy, the new government will face the challenges of rising energy prices, high inflation and sluggish economic growth.

The turnout in the general election was only 63.9%, indicating that a considerable number of voters are holding a wait-and-see attitude on whether the election can bring about change.

Whether the center-right coalition can remain united is also worth watching.

In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and some domestic reform issues, there are many differences between the Italian Brotherhood Party and the Alliance Party.

  In fact, the Italian Brotherhood is not the only political party that has sprung up in Italy in recent years.

In the 2018 parliamentary elections, the center-right alliance won the first vote, but the anti-EU and anti-immigration Five Star Movement became the largest political party.

Since then, the support rate of the League Party has skyrocketed. Salvini once tried to aspire to the position of Prime Minister, but failed, and his supporters also flowed to the Italian Brotherhood.

Today, Meloni has become the "vanguard" of the right-wing camp. I wonder if she can gain a firm foothold in politics?

  Regarding the relationship between Italy and the EU, Meloni made it clear that he supports the policies of Western countries on the Ukraine issue, while emphasizing that they will abide by EU rules.

Italy is the biggest beneficiary of EU recovery funds, receiving around 200 billion euros by 2026.

The new government needs the 200 billion euros to tackle domestic economic challenges, so a standoff with the EU is unlikely.

A "right-turned" Italy might put more emphasis on its own interests, but only within the framework of the European Union.

  In addition, the victory of the Italian Brotherhood Party sparked cheers from far-right parties in other European countries, and Hungary, Poland and other countries also congratulated Meloni.

Analysts believe that the EU is currently going through multiple crises. If a far-right party takes power in Italy, the unity and stability of the EU may face a more severe test.

  Bi Zhenshan