TO ANALYSE
Nord Stream gas pipelines: six hypotheses to explain the leaks
A gas leak from the Nord Stream gas pipelines observed in the Baltic Sea, Tuesday, September 27.
A fourth leak was spotted this Thursday, September 29 in southern Sweden.
© Danish Defense Command via AP
Text by: Louise Huet
8 mins
This Thursday, a fourth leak was observed at the level of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
Europe, the United States and Russia all evoke a deliberate act of “sabotage”, but for the moment, it is impossible to certify the author or his motivations.
RFI draws up six different hypotheses that could explain these spectacular leaks.
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Since Monday, September 26, all eyes have been on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, which have been caught up in a political standoff for months.
Located in the Baltic Sea, off the Danish island of Bornholm between southern Sweden and Poland, the pipelines connect Russia to Germany, and were intended to supply Europe with Russian gas.
Monday, September 26, three impressive leaks, preceded by underwater explosions, were identified, two on the Danish side and a third on the Swedish side.
A fourth was also spotted on Thursday
, according to an official from the Swedish authority.
More than half of the gas contained in Nord Stream 1 and 2, which had been out of service and shut down since the summer, has already escaped, as reported by the Danish authorities.
All leads are on the table
to try to understand the origin of this act.
Everyone passes the buck, Europe and the United States point the finger at Russia, which for its part opened an investigation for “
international act of terrorism
” this Wednesday.
Moscow accuses for its part Washington, which considers the insinuation "
ridiculous
", and Finland suspects a "
governmental actor
".
To see a little more clearly, RFI deciphers six hypotheses and the motivations of the potential actors involved.
HYPOTHESIS 1: The accident
The hypothesis of accidental failures was quickly ruled out.
“
An accident is totally improbable
”, assures an expert in geopolitics and energy to RFI, who wished to remain anonymous given the “
sensitivity of the file
”.
“
The Nord Stream 2 pipe is a completely new pipe, the Nord Stream 1 pipe is ten years old, but also almost new.
It should also be noted that their steel thickness is considerable and the qualities of the pipes are adapted to difficult conditions
,” he adds.
According to the specialist, accidents several days apart are unthinkable.
HYPOTHESIS 2: An isolated act of sabotage
The hypothesis of deliberate sabotage is gradually being confirmed, as indicated by various European and Russian intelligence reports.
But is it an isolated act or a sabotage maneuvered by a country?
In view of the explosion, "
more than a hundred kilos of explosive charge
" were deposited on the gas pipelines.
The Norwegian seismological institute NORSAR, which specializes in detecting earthquakes and nuclear explosions, estimated the second detonation at 700 kilos.
The operation therefore requires a relatively complex intervention, at a minimum depth of 70 meters.
The question that arises, according to the geopolitical expert, is how to sabotage these gas pipelines, and from where?
“
From installations that leave from Russia.
There are also possibly installations on the access point in Germany.
But how can one manage to send from Germany explosive charges which explode in the middle of the Baltic Sea, if it is a question of an individual act?
For the specialist, the hypothesis of solitary sabotage remains very surprising, due to the level of sophistication of the explosions.
►
To read also: Leaks in the Nord Stream gas pipelines: the hypothesis of sabotage in the minds
HYPOTHESIS 3: Sabotage from Russia
The thesis of state participation is increasingly favored to explain leaks.
This Thursday, the Kremlin itself said it suspected
the “involvement
” of a foreign state, without however naming a particular country.
Yet some defense experts, as well as the West, see Russia as the number one culprit.
In tweets, independent naval analyst HI Sutton explains that currently, “
the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world.
They are based in the Arctic.
They would be able to degrade a pipeline in the Baltic
”.
According to the geopolitical specialist wishing to remain anonymous, such leaks allow Russia to “
appeal to a case of force majeure not to honor its contracts with Europe for gas supply via Nord Stream 1
".
3. GUGI and the internet tapping subs
Today the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of spy submarines in the world.
These are based in the arctic
They would be capable of damaging a pipe in the Baltic.
However it seems unlikely.
pic.twitter.com/lSRo8i4gjs
— HI Sutton (@CovertShores) September 27, 2022
However, the expert considers the Russian track not very credible since Nord Stream 1 and 2 had already been shut down since the summer, "
Russia has little interest in these leaks
", and these explosions are "
tremendous damage to assets at considerable values for the country
”.
Also, the specialist argues that this type of accident further discredits Russia as a reliable gas supplier.
According to him, instead of sabotaging gas pipelines, the Kremlin could in a simpler and more effective way cut off existing supply channels, "
they don't need to blow up their gas pipeline to implement measures against from Europe
".
The researcher also points out that Russia holds the key to Nord Stream's front door, and could simply lock it if it wishes to make the European Union thirsty.
However, he puts forward another idea: “
The Russians, who are avowed climate skeptics, could have wanted to open the floodgates so that there was more methane gas escaping into the atmosphere, but that seems totally ludicrous to me
.
»
HYPOTHESIS 4: US Involvement
Washington is one of the toughest opponents of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, and has been for years.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 7, US President Joe Biden had also raised the possibility of “
ending
” it if Moscow intervened militarily in Ukraine.
Russia has also urged the US authorities to give it answers on the country's involvement on Wednesday.
“
The American president is obliged to answer the question of whether the United States has carried out its threat
”, launched the spokeswoman for Russian diplomacy Maria Zakharova.
Thus, for the expert in geopolitics and energy, the American track remains very probable.
“
When we look at who benefits from the crime?
It is not especially to Russia, it is certainly not to the Europeans who are on the contrary weakened in their gas supply.
So to whom?
To the producers, suppliers, and exporters of liquefied natural gas, namely the United States, Qatar, Australia... We can't say anything, but objectively, they are the ones who profit and benefit from the situation.
»
HYPOTHESIS 5: Secret services and drones
From a defensive and military point of view, the option of using underwater drones is plausible.
“
A drone that deposits 100 kilos of TNT at a specific location is not very sophisticated technology, especially since the depth of water in the Baltic Sea is rather low.
For example, a drone is easier to use than to mobilize combat swimmers, who need ships on the surface to recover them
, ”says the specialist.
According to an AFP military source, the area is "
perfectly suitable for midget submarines
".
A special naval operation, coordinated and prepared, is therefore not to be ruled out.
“
Secret services in many countries are not 100% controlled.
We cannot exclude a spontaneous initiative from such and such an American, Russian, etc. service, like the attack on the Rainbow Warrior
[sabotage of a flagship of the NGO Greenpeace by the French secret services in 1985 in Oakland, Ed]”, analyzes the expert in geopolitics.
HYPOTHESIS 6: What about Ukraine?
Could Ukraine be the source of the leaks, in the midst of a war against Russia?
For our source, it is a hypothesis, but which assumes a minimum of logistical means in the Baltic, means that the Ukrainian forces do not have for the moment.
"
The interest of Ukraine, to aim for a logistical tool which is used to supply a friend, Europe, seems absurd to me
", he declares, even if he concedes that the European Union is a less powerful than the United States in terms of military and financial supply.
“
Perhaps they could be much less sensitive to the impact that a gas leak has on European consumers?
asks the specialist without too much conviction.
This Tuesday, September 27, Ukraine denounced a "
planned terrorist attack
” by Russia “
against Europe
”.
Since the alleged “sabotage” of the gas pipelines, Norway, now the main gas supplier in Europe, has reinforced its security arrangements around its oil and gas installations, perceived as potential targets of choice.
At Russia's request, an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council is to be held this Friday to clarify the situation.
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