Moscow -
The results of the Russian referendums in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions did not come as a surprise. They were expected. The referendum was preceded by polls conducted in several stages in the aforementioned regions, which showed - according to those in charge of them - that the overwhelming majority supported joining Russia.
With the transformation of these regions into a new geopolitical situation, Russian observers expect that the results of the referendums and the accession of new regions to Russia will lead to a reconsideration of the political, economic and social strategies of the state, to take into account the new demographic situation, and the entry of different population groups and regions into Russian geography.
Although Kyiv called for the punishment of Moscow over the referendum, Russian political analysts do not rule out that the strong Ukrainian reaction and the possibility that Kyiv will take military action against the newly joined regions with Russia, will lead to the latter's holding of new referendums in other regions of Ukraine.
In any case, only the protocol aspect remained to announce Russia's entry into a new geopolitical phase.
After the accession of these regions, the country will enter into a fundamentally new economic reality, with a different population size, and therefore the beneficiaries of the general budget assistance will increase, and the need for reconstruction and infrastructure reform will emerge, as well as support for industries and institutions, and the development of health care, education and pensions.
The vast majority of participants in the referendum voted in favor of joining Russia (Reuters)
How did voters in the four regions vote?
99.2% of those who participated in the referendum voted in favor of joining the Donetsk region to Russia, and 98.4% with the accession of Lugansk, 87.5% in Kherson region supported this, and 93.1% in Zaporozhye.
Despite the bombing of the Ukrainian forces, the turnout in the referendum in some areas reached nearly 100%.
The director of the Center for Political Forecasting, Denis Krkodinov, explains these high percentages, that everyone dissatisfied with the Russian authorities left those regions even before the start of the special operation, and this is just under a third of the population of the regions, while the rest wanted to be part of Russia.
What are the losses of Ukraine as a result of the referendum?
After settling the post-referendum legal procedures, Ukraine will have lost about 20% of its territory, economy and population.
As Krkodinov says, this would be a major blow to Ukraine, which has been "feeding" on Donbass resources for nearly three decades.
He continues that during the Soviet era, powerful industries were created in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, especially in the field of industry and mining, which formed the basis of the Ukrainian economy.
The Russian expert cites data from the State Statistical Service of Ukraine at the end of 2020, which indicate that the contribution of the Zaporizhia economy - for example - to the country's gross regional product is 4%, and the Kherson region is 1.6%.
Before the declaration of secession in 2014, Donetsk region's contribution to Ukraine's economy was 10.8%, and Lugansk 3.6%, of Ukraine's GDP.
By the way, the Kherson region is the main supplier of grain, not only within Ukraine, but also to Europe, as there are companies of the main chemical industries and the most important mining companies.
The results of the referendum impose a new geopolitical reality for Russia and Ukraine, which has lost a large part of its territory (Reuters)
What will Russia get?
Political analyst Valery Korovin argues that Russia, in the first place, has been able to "restore historical justice", adding that the lands of "Novorussia" (a historical term for the Russian Empire referring to the territory north of the Black Sea and including parts of Ukraine) have always been part of Russia since imperial times. It was "crossed out" and annexed to Ukraine by Mikhail Gorbachev, the first president of the USSR, in 1991.
He continues that these lands are inhabited by the Russian population, and for Moscow, its accession will be a catalyst for restoring the cultural and historical unity of the country.
Accordingly, more than 8 million citizens (21% of Ukraine's total population) will now officially become Russian citizens.
The Russian flag is raised in one of the Zaporozhye regions during the 5-day referendum (Reuters)
How did the area of Russia change after the accession of the four regions?
After the referendum, the area of Russia will increase by 0.6%;
That is 108,840 square kilometers.
For comparison, the combined area of the four regions is roughly the size of Bulgaria.
What awaits the residents of the joining areas?
According to Karuvin, the accession of new territories will increase the size of the state's responsibilities towards the population.
Hence, the authorities will focus first on social issues and the reorganization of economic life, and companies and factories will be transferred from there to come under Russian jurisdiction, and residents of the new regions will have to submit to Russian legislation.
Most important of all, in the opinion of the analyst, is restoring the destroyed infrastructure of those regions. According to estimates by the pro-Russian presidents of those regions, the restoration of each region will require about 2 trillion rubles (about $35 billion).
Will Russia stop its own military operation in Ukraine after the referendum?
The future of the military operation in Ukraine has not yet been announced in Russia, after the ratification of the accession of the four regions to it.
But according to Kremlin Secretary Dmitry Peskov, “at the very least, the entire territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic should be liberated,” and he also said that he had no answer about the possibility of changing the name of the special military operation to a counter-terror operation, after the accession of the new regions.