That the leaks on the two Nord Stream lines are due to sabotage and that only a state actor can actually be responsible for this is pretty much all that initially seems clear about this serious incident in the Baltic Sea.

In view of the geopolitical developments, this is unsatisfactory.

But ultimately, Western politicians in particular should only judge and act on the basis of reliable information.

Before you announce the "sharpest possible answer", as the President of the EU Commission did very quickly, you first have to know who you want to answer.

Moscow's tactical interest

In Poland and in the second tier of German politics, Russia is nevertheless already being named as the originator.

It is not uncommon for a country to destroy its own infrastructure during a war.

There is good reason to believe this reading, since Russia would have a tactical interest in forcibly cutting off the pipelines.

It would be a way for Moscow to aggravate the gas crisis again (psychologically), now that the gas tap is already largely closed.

It would also be a warning shot that Putin could use to demonstrate to the West his will and further escalation options.

Ukraine would also have an interest in shutting down the two lines, but in this case a strategic one: it has always viewed them as a threat to its national security.

But it seems unlikely that Kyiv would do something at this stage of the war that must be taken up by European allies as an attack on energy supplies.

What western politicians don't have to wait for are protective measures for the critical underwater infrastructure.

The gas bubbles in the Baltic Sea provide the German security policy, which used to be so dreamy in the past, with further illustrative material for the requirements of the turning point in time: maritime security is also part of it.