Fact or deception .. Why did Putin's nuclear threats raise the concern of the West?
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent warning against using nuclear weapons to defend his country in the face of war with Ukraine raised a troubling question that has become an even more pressing: Is the ex-KGB officer practicing deception tactics?
Putin warned that it was not a hoax.
Western politicians, diplomats and arms experts are divided on this, with some saying he could use one or more tactical nuclear weapons in an attempt to stave off military defeat, protect his rule, or intimidate the West or intimidate Kyiv into submission.
Putin's warning, followed by a more specific threat of a nuclear weapon being used in Ukraine by an ally, could mean the Kremlin is considering escalation after Russia annexed four Ukrainian regions that it only partially occupies.
The Russian parliament is expected to announce the annexation of these regions on the fourth of October.
Once that happens, the path will be clear, in Moscow's view, for a potential defensive strike if it feels the region is under serious threat.
Threatening to use a nuclear weapon may be a sign of desperation, yet whether or not Putin will use it may ultimately depend on how trapped he feels.
Putin controls the world's largest nuclear arsenal, including a new generation of hypersonic and tactical nuclear weapons ten times more than the West, and is taken seriously by the United States and NATO.
"If Russia's choice is between fighting a losing war in which Putin can be overthrown, or displaying some nuclear power, I would not bet that they would not choose to display nuclear power," Tony Brenton, a former British ambassador to Russia, told Reuters in August before Putin stepped up his warnings. .
In his latest comments, Putin openly warned the West that Russia would use all available means to defend its territory and accused the West of discussing a possible nuclear attack on Russia.
"This is not a hoax," he said.
And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that it can backfire on them.”
This sharp Kremlin tone is very different from the more subtle nuclear signals the late Soviet leaders favored after Nikita Khrushchev pushed the world to the brink of nuclear war in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told US television networks on Sunday that the administration of President Joe Biden takes Putin's comments "very seriously" and warned Moscow of specific "catastrophic consequences" if it used nuclear weapons.
Washington has not made clear its possible response, but the use of a nuclear weapon could lead to a nuclear escalation, which is why most experts believe a massive conventional attack on Russian military assets would be more likely.
Asked if Putin was heading toward a nuclear attack, CIA Director William Burns told CBS.
Yesterday, Tuesday, "we have to take very seriously the kind of threats that loom."
But Burns said US intelligence had no actual evidence that Putin was heading toward the imminent use of tactical nuclear weapons.
If Putin orders a nuclear attack inside Ukraine, it would be the first use of nuclear weapons in a war since the United States launched atomic bomb attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.
Shorter-range, less powerful weapons launched by sea, air or land could theoretically be used against Ukrainian military targets, although their efficacy in such a scenario is debated among military experts.
Another option, they say, would be for Putin to detonate such a weapon over a remote and uninhabited area or body of water, such as the Black Sea, as chilling evidence of his sincerity.
The radioactive fallout of a small Russian tactical weapon could be limited to about a kilometer, but the psychological and geopolitical impact would be felt worldwide.
In a sign that Washington keeps a close eye on Russia's nuclear arsenal, flight tracking data showed on Saturday that the United States has deployed at least two RS-135 Cobra Bull spy planes used to track ballistic missile activity, near the Russian border.
Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King's College in London, said there was no evidence that Moscow was preparing for such a nuclear strike at this time and that Washington would know "quickly" if it was.
He added that he did not think it would make sense for Putin to resort to a nuclear weapon to defend the newly annexed territories.
"Given the irrational nature of using a nuclear weapon in these circumstances, taking the threat seriously involves the assumption that it would be an emotional outburst of desperation on the part of Putin in a situation where he feels threatened," he said.
"You can see the pressures he is under and the justifications he has in mind that using a small nuclear weapon might achieve its goals of turning the situation around and intimidating the West and getting it out of its way," said Richard Bates, professor of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University.
Putin says Russia is now fighting for its existence in Ukraine after years of humiliation at the hands of an arrogant West that wants to destroy the former superpower.
"The West has crossed all lines in its aggressive anti-Russian policies," he said in his September 21 warning.
Russia's military operation in Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of people, fueled global inflation, and led to the worst confrontation with the West since the height of the Cold War.
After seven months of war, Putin's forces are facing a fierce counterattack from Ukrainian forces, which are armed and trained by Western countries.
The better off Ukraine is on the battlefield, Bates said, the more likely Putin will resort to nuclear weapons.
The Russian nuclear doctrine allows a nuclear strike after "aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened."
Kremlin hawks say the West is trying to oust Putin, who has been in power in Russia since 1999.
US President Joe Biden said in March that Putin "cannot stay in power," in comments the White House said were intended to prepare the world's democracies for a protracted conflict over Ukraine, not support regime change in Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously dismissed the Russian warnings, but told CBS on Sunday that Putin might be getting serious now.
"Maybe yesterday it was a hoax, now it can become a reality," he added.
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