Expert in an interview: "He says to himself: Who needs a world without Putin?"

Grigory Borisovich, did the mobilization ordered by President Putin last Wednesday surprise the Russians?

Frederick Smith

Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS in Moscow.

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The majority, no doubt.

So far, dismay has dominated.

Some start taking action, trying to hide.

Others prepare to fight.

Why are people surprised?

Russia is a very depoliticized country.

For most people, politics does not exist: they try to stay away from it as much as possible, do not think about political events, are absolutely sure that what is happening in the world politically has nothing to do with them, them will never affect.

At least that's how it was for a long time.

The mobilization means that politics is beginning to affect a much wider range of people;

not all at once, but of course everyone in the country knows about the mobilization.

People start thinking about the situation.

Does Putin now risk losing his status as a “good tsar”?

The model of the relationship with the Emperor changes.

This was previously seen as the one who takes care of state and politics, allowing his subjects to go about their own business and not demanding any participation from them.

This created room for personal development.

Now that model is, if not completely destroyed, at least undermined.

What happens when this ruling principle is destroyed?

Good question.

In practice, it is about what happens when the main method or tactic of governing in Russia is no longer demobilization, but, on the contrary, mobilization.

Putin has never done it on this scale - and he has been in power for more than 20 years.

It's an entirely new situation, an entirely new experiment.

There is one very bad symptom: Russia's society is very atomized, the horizontal ties between people are weak.

Everyone relies on themselves and on the fact that the “Tsar” will not do anything bad.

This kind of atomized mass is a perfect building material for a fascist society;

this is what Germany looked like in the early 1930s.

On the other hand, Putin has never acted like he is now: he dislikes mobilization,

but police management methods in which he controls everything and nobody does anything without his consent.

Putin is very far away from the people, afraid of them, of any collective action and initiative from below.

If he now tries to become a mobilizing leader, it can easily fail because he has no real contact with a large part of the population, actually keeps himself to the non-contact.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

where he controls everything and no one does anything without his consent.

Putin is very far away from the people, afraid of them, of any collective action and initiative from below.

If he now tries to become a mobilizing leader, it can easily fail because he has no real contact with a large part of the population, actually keeps himself to the non-contact.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

where he controls everything and no one does anything without his consent.

Putin is very far away from the people, afraid of them, of any collective action and initiative from below.

If he now tries to become a mobilizing leader, it can easily fail because he has no real contact with a large part of the population, actually keeps himself to the non-contact.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

before any collective action and initiative from below.

If he now tries to become a mobilizing leader, it can easily fail because he has no real contact with a large part of the population, actually keeps himself to the non-contact.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

before any collective action and initiative from below.

If he now tries to become a mobilizing leader, it can easily fail because he has no real contact with a large part of the population, actually keeps himself to the non-contact.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

So it will be very difficult for Putin to get people involved.

It seems that a significant segment of Russian society is not really ready to follow Putin, especially the younger, more progressive, well-off groups that don't understand what the point is.

It's an unpredictable situation.

What happens if the mobilization fails or does not bring any military successes, if Putin appears as a weak leader?

A military defeat of Putin would mean his end.

There can be no doubt about that.

And if the war drags on?

In a way, this is what Putin needs now: his calculus is that countries like Germany will freeze to death and give way.

But so far the delay has not benefited Putin - he hesitated and hesitated and got defeat in Kharkiv.

Then the generals told him that the next defeat might be just around the corner.

So he ordered mobilization.

Now Putin is preparing to annex more areas of Ukraine.

Is there support for this in Russian society?

The word suggests that there is a kind of democratic expression of will, a common departure of citizens.

But for us it works something like this: If you get too angry, you get punched in the nose.

If you're just minding your own business, don't.

Hence the general indifference.

It's a sad situation.

Moscow is also threatening to use nuclear weapons to defend post-annexation conquests in Ukraine.

Would Putin go that far?