Louis de Raguenel 11:54 a.m., September 27, 2022, modified at 11:58 a.m., September 27, 2022

At the call of the CGT, FSU, Solidaires and youth organizations, a mobilization and a day of strike are organized this Thursday, October 29 everywhere in France, against the reform of unemployment insurance pensions.

According to information from Europe 1, the Central Territorial Intelligence Service (SCRT) expects a weak mobilization.

According to this note from the Central Territorial Intelligence Service (SCRT) that we consulted, between 68,000 and 75,000 people are expected this Thursday, September 29 to converge in the streets, everywhere in France.

A relatively weak mobilization therefore.

Between 4,000 and 8,000 demonstrators in Paris

In detail, the strongest mobilization should take place in Paris with between 4,000 and 8,000 demonstrators.

Then, in the provinces, Marseille and Lyon are the two cities that come first in the mobilization according to the intelligence sleuths, responsible for anticipating social movements.

With a mobilization of 4,000 people in Marseille and 3,000 in Lyon.

Still according to our information, the presence of a number of black blocks is not feared at this stage.

In addition, no violent calls have been identified at this time.

The police and gendarmes are not lowering their vigilance, however: "it will be a test that we are watching closely", explains one of them who remembers the start of the Yellow Vests demonstrations in 2018, "the demands of social emergency are always taken seriously".

A weak mobilization which can push Emmanuel Macron to accelerate

These low mobilization estimates could convince Emmanuel Macron not to wait to launch the pension reform.

And therefore to have it adopted via an amendment to the Social Security Finance Bill, allowing it to use Article 49, paragraph 3 of the Constitution as many times as it wishes.

Verdict at the end of the week, the day after the demonstrations…the moment chosen by the Head of State to give a timetable for adopting the pension reform.

For the record, in 2010, during demonstrations against a previous pension reform bill, between 800,000 and 1.3 million people took to the streets during the various mobilizations…and 500,000 against the CPE in 2006.