Those who read the headlines of the real estate market are disoriented.
Last week they talked about a boom in sales.
This figure was given by the authoritative Observatory of the Revenue Agency, according to which the purchase of houses in the second quarter of 2022 was still growing, with a trend rate of sales of + 8.6% compared to the same period of 2021.
But the empirical data tell a completely different situation.
A major player in the market, the American Century 21 Italia, saw an increase in rents at the expense of sales.
The real estate agency analyzed the market numbers in the main Italian cities (Rome, Milan, Turin, Bologna, Naples, Florence and Catania) during the first 8 months of the year, comparing them with those of the same period of 2021 and the average of last 4 years.
It emerges that buying interest marks a "minus" compared to 2021 in all cities: in Rome -10.3% and Milan -11.7%, reaching peaks of -17.5% in Bologna, -15 , 6% in Naples and -14.8% in Turin.
More moderate, but still negative compared to 2021, the decline in the purchase interest rates in Florence -6.9% and in Catania -5.8%.
How then can these data be explained so, apparently, in contrast with each other?
The explanation is in how the data is collected, i.e. how recent or old is the photograph they return.
The return to rent in Italy reveals a trend that had not yet been intercepted by the latest official data, those of the Observatories of the Revenue Agency.
According to Marco Tilesi, CEO of Century 21 Italia, “they are the result of the data that the notaries communicate for that quarter, ie the deeds.
But in reality the purchase and the price sanctioned in the deed was defined at least in the previous quarter, if not earlier.
This means that the data from the Revenue Agency Observatory, while referring to the second quarter, concern negotiations concluded months earlier and then signed only in the second quarter of 2022. In short,
Sales prices have risen: Milan has the podium with an increase of + 4.8%, followed by + 3.2% in Bologna, 1.8% in Turin and 1.5% in Rome.
In contrast, Florence (-0.7%), Naples (-0.4%) and Catania (-3.5%).
Instead, searches for rent increased: in Milan the first 8 months of 2022 recorded an increase in these searches of + 6.2% compared to the same period of 2021, in Bologna by + 7.5%, in Florence by +7 , 2%, in Catania by + 10.9%.
Growth in Naples (+ 1.4%), Turin (+ 0.8%) and Rome (+ 1.6%) is more modest, but still present.
Compared to last year there has therefore been an evident slowdown in the interest in purchasing in favor of rented houses.
Being able to have a mortgage, commit to an installment that could splash with variable rates, are two factors that affect and will increasingly affect the buying and selling market.
'' Today in Italy, potential home buyers are on pause for reflection and the causes are many - explains Tilesi - including the increase in interest rates, i.e. the difficulty in obtaining mortgages from banks, and the increase in purchase prices ''.