The earthquake that hit Italy after Giorgia Meloni's victory in the legislative elections is felt in the four corners of Europe.
Since the resignation of Mario Draghi two months ago, European leaders have been dumbfounded by the inexorable rise of the far-right candidate in voting intentions.
It's now official: the alliance, formed by Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia, Matteo Salvini's League and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, came out on top in the legislative elections on Monday 26 September.
These three parties won between 41% and 45% of the vote, according to Rai.
Enough to get a majority.
The 45-year-old Christian, conservative and anti-system politician is set to become Italy's first woman to lead a government.
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It is above all the first time that a far-right party finds itself at the head of a founding country of the European Union.
In Brussels, we already fear a series of crises and standoffs with the institutions.
Fears widely relayed before the elections by opponents, including Enrico Letta, the boss of the Democrats.
"With Putin or with Europe. Choose," he told the candidate during the legislative campaign.
He believes that the leader of Fratelli d'Italia "wants to implode the EU. Her election would be a gift for Moscow", he relayed in the Italian press.
An opinion shared by the German weekly Stern, whose cover of the last issue presents Giorgia Meloni as "the most dangerous woman in Europe".
>> "We will defend God, the fatherland and the family": Giorgia Meloni, favorite of the elections in Italy
European institutions under threat
Another source of concern for the Europeans are the allies of this coalition, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini.
They demanded "an apology or the resignation" of Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, who had mentioned possible sanctions "if the next government were to undermine fundamental democratic principles in Europe."
The Italian people have decided to take their destiny into their own hands by electing a patriotic and sovereignist government.
Kudos to @GiorgiaMeloni and @matteosalvinimi for resisting the threats of an anti-democratic and arrogant European Union by achieving this great victory!
– Marine Le Pen (@MLP_officiel) September 26, 2022
Within the parties of the far right in Europe, on the other hand, we exult.
"The Italians offered a lesson in humility to the European Union which, through the voice of Mrs Von Der Leyen, claimed to dictate their vote. No threat of any kind can stop democracy: the peoples of Europe the head and take back their destiny in hand!”, tweeted, bravado, the European deputy Jordan Bardella, acting president of the National Rally.
Same enthusiasm from the leader of the far-right Spanish party Vox, Santiago Abascal or the party of Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban.
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The specter of an "Italexit" for the time being dismissed
On the European institutions side, the leaders, "with their eyes riveted on Rome, are waiting to see what the ruling coalition could give. Should we expect complicated relations as with Hungary and Poland? Hard to say so much Giorgia Meloni has carried a double discourse towards the European Union", analyzes Alix Le Bourdon, correspondent for France 24 in Brussels.
The political leader has indeed sought "on the one hand to warn Brussels that she was going to defend Italian interests. And on the other, she qualified her Europhobic outbursts vis-à-vis the European Commission, unlike his ally Matteo Salvini", continues the journalist.
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The elected official has also been able to provide reassuring pledges to her future European partners, in particular towards the business community and Italian public opinion, recalling that she was in no way favorable to a possible exit from the EU. euro, nor to a hypothetical "Italexit".
Nor is there any question of modifying the treaties as the National Rally and La France insoumise in France want to do.
On the other hand, the Italian forties will probably not give the green light to a reform of the European treaties, as Paris wishes.
Just as it risks opposing the idea of a consensus on qualified majority voting within the Council of Ministers in certain areas of common foreign policy.
On the diplomatic level, the common program of the victorious coalition plans to respect Italy's international agreements by remaining in NATO or by supporting Ukraine.
Unless his allies - Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi - change his position in favor of Russia.
In an interview granted on September 22 on the public channel Rai, Silvio Berlusconi took up the language elements of the Kremlin by evoking "special operation", instead of "war".
He also felt that Vladimir Putin "only wanted to replace [Volodymyr] Zelensky with a government of honest people".
On Monday, the Kremlin did not hide its enthusiasm for the idea of more "constructive" relations on the morning of the victory of the neo-fascist alliance.
"We are ready to salute any political force capable of overcoming the established mainstream full of hatred towards our country (...) and to be more constructive in relations with our country," the spokesperson told reporters. of Russian President Dmitry Peskov.
Debt, immigration and abortion in question
In terms of European concerns, we must also mention the economic issues.
It must be said that the Italian debt reaches 150% of its GDP.
“Despite this debt, the coalition plans tax cuts and increases in public spending,” explains Alix Le Bourdon.
However, there is little risk that the majority in power will call into question the post-Covid recovery plan because this plan, paid in installments, is only allocated on condition that the Member States respect their commitments.
It seems unlikely that Italy will deprive itself of the 140 billion euros that it still has to collect from the European Union.
Finally, Italy could above all be intransigent in terms of values.
Everything suggests that Giorgia Meloni's positions on immigration or abortion will create a stir within the 27. "On these issues, Italy could get closer to Hungary and Poland", believes Alix Le Bourdon .
France will be "attentive" to "respect" for human rights and abortion in Italy, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has already warned.
The end of the Franco-Italian honeymoon
As for Franco-Italian relations, they could well darken.
It is not impossible to see the contacts between the two countries break, estimates Marc Lazar, specialist in Italy, on Europe 1. "Between Mario Draghi, the outgoing President of the Council, and Emmanuel Macron, it was the great agreement. It was almost a honeymoon and there was a lot of common interest at European level. […] Giorgia Meloni, let's speak clearly and I am weighing my words, is anti-French".
But "once in Brussels, [Giorgia] Meloni will learn some things on the job, concludes Maurizio Cotta, professor of political science at the University of Siena. Is it relevant to ally with [Viktor] Orban to put Paris and Berlin back? Of course, there won't be much sympathy for him from [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz and Macron. And vice versa. But when it comes to shaping European policies, you have to be pragmatic…”
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