A particularly sensitive week opens for the government.

The executive is indeed accelerating on Monday with the presentation of budgetary and environmental texts, but it is especially expected on the burning issue of pension reform.

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne should set the tone early in the morning on BFMTV, just before a busy Council of Ministers.

On the menu, the finance bills (PLF) and social security financing bills (PLFSS) for 2023. But also a bill on renewable energies that Emmanuel Macron intends to develop "twice as fast".

The spectrum of 49.3

The PLF will be “a protection budget”, argued Sunday, in the

JDD

, the Minister of Public Accounts Gabriel Attal, highlighting in particular “the tariff shield” to limit to 15% the increase in gas bills and electricity. electricity for the French.

But that should not be enough to find allies on the opposition benches, to the point that Gabriel Attal considered "probable" the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the adoption of texts without a vote.

As for the Social Security budget, the government is counting on a deficit reduced to some 6.8 billion euros, a marked improvement compared to 2022. But with a deficit in the old-age branch starting to rise again, making it essential according to the government to extend working hours.

“Yes, we will reform pensions”, promised Gabriel Attal, but without specifying the timetable and the content.

And above all, without excluding an amendment to the PLFSS which could be the subject of a 49.3 but which makes it jump into the ranks of the majority.

Unions and oppositions are up against a flash reform, including LR, which nevertheless considers it essential to reform pensions.

An amendment to the PLFSS “would be a declaration of war”, launched LFI deputy Manuel Bompard on Sunday.

LFI and the RN have promised motions of censure and the RN will vote for other motions, "whatever their origin", said Marine Le Pen.

To bring down the government, however, a very broad coalition of oppositions would be needed, including LR, which is currently unlikely.

A “slightly high” growth forecast

In addition to pensions, several points in the budget promise lively discussions in Parliament.

The Nupes and the RN are notably pushing for a tax on "superprofits", in the face of a divided majority on the issue.

Communities, faced with skyrocketing energy bills, will be another hot spot.

The government must also present its public finance programming bill for the five-year term on Monday.

In an opinion issued on Sunday, the High Council of Public Finances deemed "unambitious" and "particularly fragile" the trajectory envisaged to reduce the deficit from 5% to 2.9% by 2027. It also judges the growth forecast of 1% of the government for 2023 "a little high".

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