The Islamic Republic of Iran is facing its greatest challenge since the 1979 revolution. The death of a young woman as a result of ill-treatment by the vice squad was the spark that ignited the fire of recent protests.

In the past two decades, protests have become the norm in Iran.

Their frequency and force increased steadily.

Workers and students took to the streets because of their needs, as did doctors, teachers and pensioners.

Most of the time, however, it remained small, local outbursts of anger that were easy to put down.

Most recently, the protests spread nationwide at the end of 2017 and 2019.

Taken as a whole, they are an expression of the fact that the Islamic Republic has not kept its promises to ensure justice and widespread prosperity after the Shah's dictatorship.

However, the protests never reached a critical mass to seriously endanger the Islamic Republic.

The recent protests are getting closer to this critical point for three reasons.

First, the mostly youthful demonstrators today bravely confront the security forces.

They are no longer backing down, as was the case in 2009, when a sentence by the revolutionary leader Khamenei was enough for the demonstrators to stop protesting the controversial re-election of then-President Ahmadinejad for fear of bloodshed.

Rule of prohibitions alienates people from Islam

Second, Iranians from all walks of life can identify with the recent protest.

It started as a protest against compulsory headscarves and for more women's rights.

Then the focus widened rapidly.

The killed Mahsa Amini became the face of a fight against the religiously based paternalism by clerics and their armed troops such as the Revolutionary Guards, which reaches into all areas of life.

Pious Iranians also agree, complaining that this regime is alienating more and more people from religion through bans.

In no other country in the Islamic world are the mosques so empty during Friday prayers as in Iran.

Third, the protests, more than previous ones, are exposing cracks in the system of domination.

For the first time, cases of refusal to obey orders are reported from the ranks of the security forces.

In addition, representatives of the moderate wing of the regime express understanding for the demands of the demonstrators and would be willing to lift the requirement for women to wear face coverings.

Khamenei opposes reforms

But it won't come to that.

The 83-year-old Khamenei, who is in poor health and has been at the head of the republic since 1989 as the successor to Ayatollah Khomeini, is in the process of settling his estate.

The discussion (if not to say the fight) about his successor has long since begun.

He wants to leave the regime intact to his successor, possibly his son Modschtaba.

Khamenei is not known for compromises, he rides the principles of the revolution.

This includes hatred of Israel, and the obligation for women to cover up.

The only difference between Iran and other countries is the headscarf requirement.

The headscarf is the symbol of the Islamic rule of the ayatollahs.

The regime is neither willing to reform nor to compromise.

He therefore has no choice but to use force to quell these protests as well, with a bloodbath if necessary.

That has its price.

Because with such pictures, the United States will neither agree to the return to the nuclear deal nor the lifting of sanctions.

The Islamic Republic is thus caught in a downward spiral.

Unless the sanctions are lifted, living conditions will continue to deteriorate and impoverishment will continue.

The reasons for dissatisfaction - economic hardship, political oppression, lack of social freedoms - are merging into an avalanche that could herald the end of the Islamic Republic.

No means other than violence

Despite the looming dangers, the Tehran leadership has no plan B. This has dramatic consequences.

Apart from China, no one is investing in Iran anymore, and capital flight is continuing.

Iran is in the last quarter of Transparency International's corruption rankings, and the brutal activities of the security apparatus remain unpunished, as the case of Mahsa Amini shows.

It is uncertain what will happen after Khamenei.

The young Iranians see it all.

As a result, some are leaving their homeland. Probably no other country has been affected by the brain drain like Iran.

The others demonstrate.

The Islamic Republic has maneuvered itself into a dead end.

The regime seems to have no ideas other than violence to cement the rule of the ayatollahs and their Revolutionary Guards.