American researcher: Dialogue with Russia before it is too late

The magazine "The National Interest" published an article by an American academic and researcher in which he addressed his vision of what could result from the Russian war on Ukraine, stressing the need for dialogue with Moscow.

Simon Servati, a professor of foreign relations at the American University of Old Dominion, believes in his article that Russia is certainly the biggest loser in the war, but the need to communicate with it to stop the fighting is no less important.

He says that the current situation is tainted by confusion and ambiguity about "what we do and what we expect" as US President Joe Biden's term enters the second half and "perhaps the last". He is Chair Emeritus of the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Geostrategy and Global Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Although the writer believes that no one knows what will happen in the coming days, he asserts that neither side of the war in Ukraine can emerge victorious from it, yet they refuse to end it, and Russian President Vladimir Putin had warned two months ago, "We haven't started anything yet." .

Despite mounting evidence of failure, Russia still controls the war that Putin started as long as he controls its escalation beyond Ukraine's ability to bear or the West's daring to contemplate.

Commenting on Putin's statement last August, in which he said, "We have lost nothing and will not lose anything," the writer asked in a tone not without warning, "What if (Putin) - under pressure from his domestic critics - means what he says?"

He adds that the Russian president may resort to the worst bad options available to him - a nuclear weapon - despite Biden's warnings to him, which aim to deter him.

Servati asks again, "Is it then time to think about the path we are all taking and apply the brakes before it's too late?"

In his article, the academic and researcher recalls wars the world has witnessed, such as those that took place in Bosnia and Herzegovina, between the two Koreas, in Vietnam and Iraq, adding that the West missed all opportunities to end them before they caused unbearable costs.

Serfaty believes that the Ukraine war lacks red lines acceptable to all sides that allow the parties the time they need to reach a position of claimed strength before agreeing to enter into serious negotiations.

For those who dream of an unconditional Russian withdrawal or regime change in Moscow, Ukraine is nothing like the war in Afghanistan precipitated by the "old" leader of a rickety Soviet state.

This is a global and existential crisis, the like of which we have not seen since 1945, according to the description of the “National Interest” article, whose writer explains that the war in Ukraine has just begun, and no one can predict its impact on the balance of things in the current decade.

With the beginning of a new century, Putin announced his options to re-equip arms and retreat towards the Cold War, using the expansion of NATO membership as a pretext, and a return to previous positions as a strategy, and Russian history as an incentive.

However, it is premature - in the opinion of the author of the article - to predict the outcome of the war, yet it is possible to make an early assessment of the repositioning towards the United States, how America can be compared to Asia, the development of Sino-Russian relations, and the rise of other countries of the world compared to the West.

To believe allies in Europe and elsewhere that a US president would risk launching nuclear war on their behalf under all circumstances is a risky gamble.

In the article, the researcher praises the performance of the US foreign policy team, noting that the war in Ukraine enjoyed an unprecedented level of consultations within NATO and with the European Union.

The writer considers insulting Putin in abusive terms in anticipation of his unconditional abandonment of every inch of Ukraine - including Crimea - is not a strategy that guarantees victory, and to expect him to leave Ukraine empty-handed and humiliated is a deception.

Servati continues, claiming that Russia is the biggest loser in the war, adding that no matter what happens next, there is a need to talk to it in order to end the fighting.

Servati concludes that this is the time for the parties to talk to each other, no matter how difficult it may be, and that Russia should not be pushed into what he calls "strategic desperation", nor can Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky be allowed to be "reckless" no matter how willing he may be. in winning the war.

According to the writer, dialogue will not necessarily end the war, but it will put an end to the killing, and it will not lead to the full restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty, but will keep it on the right track without incurring additional costs that may soon be irreversible and will not be borne by everyone.

Servati concludes that the United States should not miss the opportunity before it is too late.