President Biden's performance does not determine its outcome
The upcoming midterm congressional elections are different from previous ones
Biden gave a speech to the nation on September 1 declaring that the central issue was extremism.
Reuters
All midterm congressional elections focus on the economy.
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Why are this year's midterm congressional elections different from all previous midterm elections?
In all previous midterm congressional elections, the judgment on the performance of the President of the Republic was the main factor in determining their outcome.
If the performance rating was as low as 40%, that would have been a disaster for President Biden's party.
During the first midterm elections of President Barack Obama in 2010, he obtained an approval rating equal to 45%, and his party lost 63 seats in Congress.
In 2018, President Donald Trump's approval rating was 40%, and his party lost 40 seats in Congress.
The republican majority is likely
Incumbent President Joe Biden received an approval rating of 44%, and accordingly many Republicans expect to win control of the House of Representatives by achieving an overwhelming majority.
But although a Republican majority still seems likely, winning five seats in the House of Representatives could bring a Republican majority.
Democrats are now ahead of Republicans by 44 percent over 38 percent, voters said when asked how they would vote in the midterm congressional elections.
A single seat for Republicans could help give them control of Congress.
But given this year's mixed congressional seats, and the bad fortunes of several Republican candidates, the Republicans' fortunes in Congress do not look good.
All midterm congressional elections have focused on the economy.
Of course, this year's weak economy is important, but not to the degree that it overwhelms the other issues.
But there are signs of improvement in the US economy.
Oil prices have fallen by 25% since last June, and consumers seem resigned to high inflation, and are living with it.
A very important issue is abortion rights.
Americans' rights, whether abortion rights, civil rights, or gun rights, cannot be taken away from Americans without triggering a violent political backlash.
And that is exactly what is happening this year, because the Supreme Court's ruling last June reverses its 1973 ruling and ends the status of constitutionally protected abortion rights.
We are seeing a sharp increase in the number of voters who say that abortion will be a very important issue in determining midterm elections, especially among women and young voters, who support abortion rights and who are registering to vote in increasing numbers.
In other midterm elections, the opposition party was the most angry party.
This year, President Biden's party is the most angry.
Nearly 45% of those who say they will vote against the candidate backed by former President Donald Trump.
This is much higher than the percentage of those who say they will vote against the candidate backed by President Biden (38%). The president determines the outcome.
In all midterm congressional elections, support or opposition to the president was the most important factor determining the outcome.
This year, only half of voters say President Biden will play a large role in determining the vote.
When Biden addressed the nation in a speech on September 1, he declared the central issue to be extremism, adding, "Donald Trump and the far-right groups that support him represent the extremism that threatens the foundation of our republic."
This year's congressional elections seem more like a referendum on former President Trump, who may nominate himself, than a referendum on the current president, who may also run.
The Democrats were victorious in the 2018 midterm elections when Trump was in office.
Anti-Trump forces may play a significant role in the Republican loss of the election this year.
The Democrats are outpacing their president
In all midterm congressional elections, the president determines whether his party is attractive.
But this year the Democratic Party is in a better position than the Democratic president himself.
The Morning Consult poll indicates that “Democrats outperform their president in popularity.” The poll indicates that, among independents, Democrats have a 30-point lead on the universal ballot than President Biden's approval rating.
Something seems to be driving many voters to vote for the Democratic Party.
And of course not the Democratic president.
Democrats, including President Biden, are betting that an aversion to the Republican Party is tainted with extremism.
The evidence of their extremism is their refusal to accept the results of the 2020 elections.
sarcastic strategy
In other midterm congressional elections, each party tries to stay out of the other's internal affairs.
But this year, Democrats are spending tens of millions of dollars to help far-right candidates and those who reject the results of the 2020 election defeat more moderate Republicans.
The point is that voter-rejected extremist Republicans will be an easy target for Democrats to beat in the November elections.
This sounds like a cynical strategy, but it carries risks.
Some of these radical Republicans can actually be elected, especially if a large number of voters are weary of the status quo and are looking for any candidate who presents an agenda for "change."
The midterm congressional elections have always been three episodes, all sideshows without a major event.
And 2022 might be different.
And two-thirds of voters this year say it really is a problem of knowing which party will win control of Congress.
This is the same percentage that said so in 2018, when Trump was still in power.
The midterm elections in 2018 were all centered on Trump.
Perhaps it will be this time.
• There are signs of improvement in the economy in the United States. Oil prices have fallen by 25% since last June, and consumers seem resigned to high inflation, and are living with it.
• President Biden got a performance rating of 44%, and accordingly many Republicans expect to win control of the House of Representatives by achieving an overwhelming majority.
* Bill Schneider is Professor of Politics and Management at George Mason University
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