Decisive week for the executive.
After a long sequence where everyone – majority parties as well as opposition parties – was able to take a position on the pension reform wanted by the Élysée and Matignon, Emmanuel Macron and Élisabeth Borne should decide in the days to come on the method.
The President of the Republic and the Prime Minister will thus bring together the leaders of the majority and the ministers concerned next week to take stock of the way to initiate the pension reform, announced, Saturday, September 24, the entourage of the leader of State.
After a lunch at the Élysée Palace on Friday between the two heads of the executive, "all options remain on the table", assured the presidential entourage to AFP, while the reform divides within the majority.
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"The president and the head of government are aligned on a fundamental principle: this reform must see the light of day in the summer of 2023", underlines one in the entourage of Emmanuel Macron.
"The president considers that, like the deputies of his majority, he has a very clear mandate from the French to reform," adds the same source.
However, according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV, broadcast on Thursday, only 13% of those questioned say they are in favor of an "urgent" pension reform, against 51% who are asking for "time for consultation and debate" and 36% who do not consider it necessary.
Only 21% want to delay the retirement age against 46% for maintaining it at 62 and 33% for lowering it.
For their part, all the unions promise a dark autumn if the government imposes a new pension reform this year.
The CGT has already called for a strike against the future reform on Thursday 29 September.
Is a pension reform essential?
The Pensions Orientation Council (COR) announced on September 15 that the expenditure of the pension system, even if it were controlled over the long term, was not compatible with the trajectory of reduction in public expenditure envisaged by the government for 2027.
The Pensions Monitoring Committee, for its part, warned on Thursday, September 22, of the risk of "significant residual imbalances in the short and medium terms" which could be amplified in the event of degraded growth in the years to come and recommends that the legislator " find an answer to the problems of balancing" the system, without however taking sides for an age measurement.
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Between raising the retirement age, increasing contributions, increasing the number of years of contribution, reducing the level of pensions, it is a question of making a political choice.
Exit the reform envisaged three years ago with the establishment of a retirement by points.
During his presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron proposed instead to maintain the current system by raising the legal retirement age – from 62 years old currently – to 64 or 65 years old.
The executive could also accelerate the 2014 reform which extends the contribution period necessary to obtain a full pension.
"The big difference with all our partners and all our neighbours, and moreover with most Western countries, is this retirement age, it's this working time," explained the porter on Friday. word of the government, Olivier Véran.
"We are talking about gradually rebalancing things (...) because for us, it is a dogma, a base, and we will not go back on it: we will not increase taxes, we want to lower them , and we don't want to increase the debt any further, otherwise our children will pay it."
A reform to finance the "French social model"
Questioned, Thursday, September 22, by BFMTV on board the presidential plane which brought him back from New York, Emmanuel Macron defended his plan to reform the pension system, explaining that he wanted to create budgetary leeway to finance other major social reforms. of the country, preserve France's independence and promote ecological transition.
"I am convinced that it is a necessity. Why? Because we see that today, the challenge which is ours is to be more independent in Europe and in Franco-French", said Emmanuel Macron, underlining that "our independence is not to live on credit".
The government has chosen to protect the French from inflation thanks to the tariff shield, to support the economy during the health crisis, and wants to carry out hospital, education and security reform while preparing for the transition. ecological, he developed.
💬 "Pension reform is a necessity (...) Rebuilding the hospital and the school, it costs money"
Emmanuel Macron confides exclusively on @BFMTV on his return from the United Nations
📺 An interview to be found in full at 10:30 am in @LeLiveToussaint pic.twitter.com/GwiyxLohuF
– BFMTV (@BFMTV) September 22, 2022
"It costs money. Can we finance it with the deficit? No. We are one of the countries with the biggest deficit in Europe. Can we finance it with more taxes? No. We are the most taxing country in Europe."
"The truth is that we need to work more and produce more wealth in our country if we want to protect, have a policy of social justice and defend the French social model, its strength and its future," he said. -he adds.
What method to pass the reform?
This is the question that angers the majority.
The government has mentioned the tabling of an amendment in the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS).
A method which would allow him to go quickly, but which would have the great defect of being considered as a "forced passage", in total contradiction with the "new method" of governance advocated by Emmanuel Macron, in particular during the launch of the Council National Refoundation.
"We are not to pieces," insisted Sunday a heavyweight of the majority, the president of the MoDem François Bayrou, at the end of the university of the party's return to Guidel.
“Take three or four months to reflect together and put options and proposals on the table, I think that would be good, not only for civil peace – that matters – but for the reform itself.
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François Bayrou had already warned the executive on September 17 about a reform that could not "be done around an amendment", a method which he said would be a "forced passage".
"If we embark on this path, then we are sure to first coalesce the oppositions between them, then to divide French society", warned the president of the Modem, calling for taking "the time for pedagogy ".
In the process, the boss of the centrist group, Jean-Paul Mattei, announced on Tuesday that the MoDem deputies would vote “certainly” against a pension reform by amendment to the draft Social Security budget.
Thursday, September 22, another important personality of the majority, the president (Renaissance) of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, took over.
"The government's amendments must not in themselves bring about a substantial reform", she warned on franceinfo, calling for "taking the time to consult with the political groups and with the social partners (...) for a comprehensive reform which must appear fair to our fellow citizens".
Oppositions ready to draw the motion of censure
On the opposition side, received this week at Matignon, the confrontation is much more direct.
At the end of her meeting with Elisabeth Borne on Thursday, Marine Le Pen brandished the threat of a motion of censure.
"I made it clear to him that if they were going to push through the pension reform through an amendment to the Social Security finance bill, and using 49.3, then we would table a motion of no confidence and we would vote for the motions of censure that would be tabled, regardless of their origin," said the former presidential candidate.
On Tuesday, the president of the La France insoumise group in the National Assembly, Mathilde Panot, warned that her group would table a motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3 to pass a retirement amendment in the PLFSS.
And even among the Republicans, who are basically in favor of pension reform, the pill is struggling to pass.
"An amendment that fell from above on the PLFSS is unacceptable," criticized the boss of LR senators, Bruno Retailleau, on France Inter.
With AFP and Reuters
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