The start of the referendum to annex it .. What did Russia achieve from the annexation of Ukrainian regions?

MOSCOW -

On Friday, the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye began the referendum process on joining the Russian Federation. Voting will take place in the four regions until September 27.

This comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced - in a televised speech - that his country will support the decision that will be taken in referendums by the residents of the aforementioned regions.

Employees of the local election commission prepare for the start of the referendum in the Donetsk region (Reuters)

Support polls

According to the head of the military and civil administration of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, the referendum came "in response to requests from public organizations and residents of the region" and the voting will be organized throughout Kherson, the same decision issued by the leadership of the Zaporozhye region, which came one day after a similar decision by Before the local authorities of Donetsk and Lugansk.

According to separate local public opinion polls conducted in the mentioned regions, 90% of Lugansk residents indicated a strong desire to join Moscow, 91% in Donetsk, and about 80% in Zaporozhye and Kherson.

hysteria and rage

Russian observers believe that the decision to hold the referendum in those regions will lead to unprecedented hysteria by the Ukrainian authorities, and will also anger Western politicians, and they consider it necessary to take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the vote.

At the same time, most of them tend to believe that Donetsk and Lugansk are more willing to join Russia than Zaporozhye or Kherson, based on the actual area of ​​territory under the control of Russian forces.

In parallel, some political analysts put the decision to hold the referendum in the context of the response to the counter-attack of Ukraine, and the withdrawal of Russian forces from important areas in Kharkiv at the end of August towards Kherson, and Kharkiv on September 6.

A Ukrainian soldier during the battles in Kherson, which Russia expects to include many economic benefits, especially agricultural (Reuters)

economic gains

Economist Victor Lachon believes that the regions preparing for the referendum have rich black soil, mineral deposits, developed industry and great economic, industrial and human potential. A well-developed mining industry, transportation and industry network, as well as a good base for the development of tourism.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Lashon says, "Although the infrastructure restoration will require large investments, the return will be high." Until 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk together provided 16% of Ukraine's GDP, and their share in the Donbass region in the sale of industrial products was higher than Any other region of Ukraine.

He continues that if the referendum ends in favor of joining Russia, this will give it additional economic power, in addition to the fact that the merger of agricultural lands that include the regions of Zaporozhye and Kherson, will turn it into the largest players in the Russian grain market.

allay the fears of its inhabitants

For his part, the Director of the Center for Political Analysis and Social Research Pavel Danilin considers that the main purpose of holding the referendums is to calm the residents of the areas controlled by Russia from the consequences of the return of Ukrainian forces, noting that "there is fear chasing many, even those who do not support Russia, because if Ukraine returns They will not be able to ascertain who is supporting them and who is against them.”

According to this political analyst, the residents of these regions view Russia as a symbol of help and protection. "People there felt real support. They see the construction of new hospitals and schools, as well as all Russian regions expressing their solidarity with them and joining in collecting aid for the residents of the liberated Ukrainian regions."

Of course, he added, the Western "Kyiv patrons" would not accept the results of the referendum, but the entry of new territories into Russia would change the facts on the ground, as the West and Ukraine would have to make one of two difficult choices: either accept the fact that this is Russian territory, or realize that they are conducting military operations. Against Moscow with all the consequences.

Zaporozhye nuclear plant, which has been controlled by Russian forces since early March 2022 (Getty Images)

race against time

As for the political researcher, Alexander Kuznetsov, he asserts that the recognition of the republics is a necessary factor to ensure the security of the Russian Federation, otherwise American and NATO forces may appear on its territory, near the Russian borders.

But he points out that the Zaporozhye region - unlike Kherson - was "liberated" by only 70%, which is a huge urban agglomeration in which more than 700,000 people live, and this could put the results of the referendum in permanent dispute.

According to him, it is necessary to have mechanisms to protect the results of the referendum: diplomatic, military and economic, in light of what confirms that they are inevitable attempts by Kyiv to disrupt it, as well as questioning its results and not recognizing it?

The researcher puts the speech of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, regarding the bombing of the nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye, in the context of creating a state of panic and causing the population to leave, concluding that the fewer people who participated in the referendum, the better for Zelensky.