With the start of the countdown to the supposed Lebanese presidential elections before the end of next October, a crowd of traditional and non-traditional candidates emerged.

On the first of this September, the constitutional deadline for the election of a new president of the republic by members of the House of Representatives began, and it ends on October 31 next.

Accordingly, Lebanon is preparing for a constitutional procedure that must take place before the end of the term of current President Michel Aoun, who has spent 6 years in power since 2016, which was full of crises at all levels.

The term of office of the president lasts 6 non-renewable years, and he may not be re-elected until 6 years after the end of his first term, noting that this rule was breached in two cases, during the era of former presidents Elias Hrawi (1989-1998) and General Emile Lahoud (1998- 2007).

The president's sect and the voting mechanism

Although the Lebanese constitution does not discriminate between citizens to hold positions, the political system that has been in place for decades requires the sharing of powers and senior positions according to religious and sectarian affiliations.

Accordingly, the president of the republic is a Maronite Christian, the speaker of parliament is a Shiite, and the prime minister is a Sunni, and the custom extends to other positions, such as the army chief being a Maronite, the gendarmerie commander a Sunni, the director of public security a Shiite, and the governor of the Banque du Liban a Maronite.

According to the constitution, the president is elected by secret ballot by a majority of two-thirds of the members of the House of Representatives in the first session, while an absolute majority (half + 1) is sufficient to elect him in the voting cycles that follow.

The constitution does not obligate those wishing to fight for the presidency to submit nominations in advance. The 128 members of Parliament are the ones who elect the president, meaning that every deputy can elect any Lebanese Maronite he chooses, provided that nothing prevents or conflicts with basic conditions such as age and criminal record.

So far, 5 individual nominations have emerged, but it can be said that they do not receive any support from the country's prominent political parties.

The head of the Justicia Legal Organization, Paul Morcos, said that it is not necessary for any candidate to announce his candidacy for the presidency, but the elected must have the conditions that qualify him for representation (Parliament), including the condition of citizenship.

For his part, journalist and political analyst Mounir Al-Rabee said that despite the large number of candidates, according to the political reality, traditional candidates (from the political center) are often closer than others to their choice of the presidency.

He pointed out that the traditional candidate needs some kind of political deal and compromise in order to get the votes needed to reach the presidency.

He pointed out that at the present time, none of the traditionalists is able to reach the presidency, because there is no choice but to agree on a figure from within the state, such as Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, as a consensual option for the political forces that make up the parliament.

He continued, "It is also possible to agree on a figure outside the political club with financial and economic interests, who is able to develop a plan in cooperation with internal and external forces, to come to the presidency."

Competitors from outside spheres of influence

The former ambassador to Jordan, Tracy Chamoun, who is close to the current president, the granddaughter of former president Camille Chamoun, is one of the most prominent people who announced their candidacy for the presidency in a press conference on August 29, when she presented her program entitled "A New Vision for the Republic".

She was preceded by the former Secretary General of the Supreme Council for Privatization Ziad Hayek, who holds the position of president of the World Association of Partnership Units in Geneva, to which 41 countries belong.

Among the personalities who have applied for candidacy is Mai Al-Rihani, an activist in the field of girls' education and the defense of women's rights and empowerment, a writer, poet, and activist in international development institutions based in the United States.

On September 21st, the head of the Environmental Rescue Party, Bechara Abi Younes, announced his intention to run according to a presidential program titled "Lebanon...the entity, the presidency, the authorities."

Businessman Sayed Boutros Franjieh also announced his candidacy for the presidency, and pledged to save Lebanon from its current economic crisis and to attract foreign investments.


traditional middle characters

As usual, politicians who are considered traditional candidates for the post appear in Lebanon, although they have not announced this, as everyone realizes that the president comes as a result of the consensus of the prominent traditional political parties that make up the parliament.

Among the most prominent names automatically presented is the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Franjieh, an ally of Hezbollah and the Syrian regime.

Likewise, the name of the army commander often appears, who is listed as close to the United States, knowing that the army leaders are considered among the permanent candidates for the presidency of the republic, the last of them in the modern era are Emile Lahoud (1998-2007), Michel Suleiman (2008-2014) and Michel Aoun.

The name of Gibran Bassil, President Aoun's son-in-law, also stands out despite his declining fortunes after losing the parliamentary majority, especially Christianity, and bearing a large part of the crises that Aoun witnessed.

For his part, Lebanese Forces President Samir Geagea considers himself a natural candidate, but says he is open to withdrawing any candidate who meets his party's specifications.

The names of MPs Michel Moawad and Nima Afram, who are affiliated with the independent opposition circle, which they rely on, are also put in the race, in addition to their foreign relations with major influential countries such as the United States, France and Russia.

Also, the Governor of the Banque du Liban, Riad Salameh, is one of the names that are presented, albeit shyly, at every presidential entitlement, despite the decline in his fortunes due to the economic crisis since 2019, and the accompanying accusations of corruption against him.

Determining the date of the meeting

These days, attention is turning to the date when Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will be called to a session to elect the president.

In a previous statement, Berri linked the call for this session to the parliament’s approval of reforms that are preconditions for a rescue program offered by the International Monetary Fund.

A political source links the date with the obtaining of a prior agreement between the major powers on the name of the president, an agreement that may be long overdue given the large number of unofficial candidates, and the absence of an explicit, allied majority capable of decisively delivering its candidate.

Analysts point out that consensus on the name of the president was not only an internal condition, but is also affected by regional and international climates and trends, particularly Iran, Saudi Arabia, France and the United States.