On the eve of the legislative election on September 25, a name made the front page of the press, well beyond the country's borders, that of Giorgia Meloni, the head of Fratelli d'Italia. The post-fascist party...

Chronicle of a victory announced for the Italian right in the legislative elections

Former Presidents of the Council, Silvio Berlusconi (left) and Matteo Salvini (right), surround Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Fratelli d'Italia party, during a meeting in Rome on October 19, 2019. © Andrew Medichini / PA

Text by: Juliette Gheerbrant Follow

5 mins

On the eve of the legislative election on September 25, a name made the front page of the press, well beyond the country's borders, that of Giorgia Meloni, the head of Fratelli d'Italia.

The post-fascist party leads the voting intentions with 25% of the vote, ahead of the Democratic Party.

The party took the lead in the right-wing coalition ahead of Matteo Salvini's La Ligue and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia.

This coalition could win more than 60% of the seats in Parliament.

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The thrust is spectacular.

From 4.3% in the legislative elections of 2018 Fratelli d'Italia could go to 24-25% of the vote this Sunday.

This does not mean that a quarter of Italian voters miss Mussolini, but it is difficult to ignore the roots of the party.

In 1996, Giorgia Meloni explained in a report by our colleagues from France 3 that Benito Mussolini had been "

a good politician

Everything he did, he did for Italy and you don't find that in the politicians we've had for the past 50 years

," said the young activist.

►Also read: Given at the head of the Italian legislative elections, the head of Fratelli d'Italia wants to reassure

Certainly, the head of Fratelli d'Italia was then 19 years old, and her speech has changed a lot.

Ready to govern, she maintains order in her troops and thus excluded a few days ago a candidate who left tributes to Hitler lying around on social networks.

But it was within the Italian Social Movement, founded by supporters of Mussolini after the Second World War, that she began her political career.

However, no one fears the return of the black shirts.

The threat is elsewhere, believes political science professor Carlo Galli of the University of Bologna: “

One of the main risks is that of a radical change in the dominant political narrative.
In what we teach at school, for example.
In Italy, the Constitution was born from the fight against fascism, it was born from the resistance and among the parties that did not subscribe to it, there was the Italian Social Movement.
Imagine what it means to see his heirs come to power through the ballot box.
It's not that they are fascists in the proper sense, no, but we can say that they are not completely integrated into the republican legitimacy

”.

One coalition, three competitors

But Fratelli d'Italia will not rise to power alone.

It is indeed a right-wing coalition that presents itself to the voters.

Matteo Salvini

's Nationalist League

is in second place with 12% of voting intentions,

Silvio Berlusconi

's Forza Italia in 3rd with 6-7% of the vote according to the polls.

“

The dynamics are very good for the center right

”, begins Marco Valbrizzi, political scientist at the University of Bologna, before continuing: “

Finally, I continue to say center right, but the right component is prevalent.
Besides, the question today is whether the two far-right forces, Fratelli d'Italia and the League can obtain a majority on their own - without the small moderate component of Berlusconi's Forza Italia party.
It is a hypothesis which is not at all improbable, and which would strongly shift the axis of the government towards the more radical components of the coalition

”.

Driven by the polls, Giorgia Meloni is entitled to claim to lead the country.

But the struggle will be bitter within the coalition to form a government team capable of obtaining the approval of the President of the Republic.

Apart from "

a few great experienced and recognized personalities from previous Berlusconi governments, the right has very few political personnel"

, believes Carlo Galli, "

and this is a problem, because the quality of people counts, and how!

The other unknown is how long the coalition could resist divisions.

While they have many common values (traditional family, economic liberalism, Christianity, etc.), the three parties also have many differences.

Muted at the start of the campaign, they have started to resurface, notes political scientist Marco Valbrizzi who mentions among the subjects of contention the use of EU recovery funds - of which Italy is the main beneficiary - their allocation and the reforms that must accompany them;

support for Ukraine;

positions on sanctions against Russia, again to name but a few.

“

These divisions will be crucial when forming a government.
In general, on international issues, the coalition is divided.

What about Europe?

The first fracture, and not the least, concerns the European Union.

Third economy of the 27, Italy is also in the top 10 world powers.

And if Forza Italia, as a member of the EPP, the European People's Party in Brussels, is at the heart and origins of European construction, the other two are clearly on the side of nationalist and illiberal governments.

The League is a member of ID, Identity and Democracy, with the government party of Hungary, and Fratelli d'Italia is a member of the ECR, the party of European Conservatives and Reformists with the party of the Polish government.

Also with the extreme right of the Swedish Democrats and the Vox party in Spain.

Giorgia Meloni's European project is clear, it is that of a Europe of nations which privileges national prerogatives.

What will Forza Italia weigh in the balance?

This is one of the keys to post-September 25.

According to the latest polls, faced with a fragmented center left and a losing 5-star movement - although on the rise - the 47% of votes with which the right-wing coalition is credited could translate into more than 60 to 65% of the seats in Parliament.

Either a blue wave over the entire peninsula.

►Also listen: Italy: why do we say that the far right is at the gates of power?

Chronicle of a victory announced for the Italian right in the legislative elections

Chronicle of a victory announced for the Italian right in the legislative elections

One coalition, three competitors

What about Europe?

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