It is a military escalation expected and feared for months.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced, in a televised speech recorded and broadcast on Wednesday, September 21, a “partial mobilization” of reservists to support the war effort in Ukraine.

This partial mobilization would serve to “protect our homeland, its sovereignty and its territorial integrity, and ensure the security of our people and the peoples in the liberated territories”, justified the master of the Kremlin. 

From two to 20 million reservists

In his speech, it is no longer just a question of a “special military operation” in Ukraine, but of defending against “the objective of the West” which, according to Vladimir Putin, is to “destroy Russia” .

The same rhetoric used by Sergei Shoigu: the Russian Minister of Defense declared following the presidential address that Russia was "at war with the West". The soldier came to specify the contours of this partial mobilization which, for the moment, would only concern “300,000 reservists” who had already served in the army.  

Some fear this is just the beginning.

“The mobilization decree is formulated in the most vague terms possible, leaving the Minister of Defense to decide freely who and how many people will be sent to the front.

[...] Sergei Shoigu has set a cap at 300,000, but he can revise it at any time and mobilize an unlimited number of reservists”, specified on Telegram Pavel Chikov, lawyer and president of Agora, a Russian NGO from defense of human rights.

In reality, the number of reservists that can be called up remains limited.

“On paper, Russia can mobilize between two and 20 million men with this decree”, specifies Nicolo Fasola, specialist in Russian military questions at the University of Bologna.

Indeed, two million men have served in the army over the past five years and can, in fact, “be considered still ready for combat”, specifies the Italian expert.

In all, 20 million individuals are registered on the list of reservists while still being old enough to go to the front.

In this respect, sticking to 300,000 for the time being “allows the government to maintain the illusion for the Russian population that the 'special military operation' [the official designation in Russia of the war in Ukraine, editor's note] does not require a total military effort”, specifies Nicolo Fasola. 

"More prisoners and more deaths at the front"

With this partial mobilization, “Vladimir Putin is trying both to minimize the internal negative backlash of a measure he had done everything to avoid until now, and to project internationally the image of a leader strong with the necessary reserves to continue the war”, analyzes Jeff Hawn, specialist in Russian military questions and external consultant for the New Lines Institute, American center for research in geopolitics.

How to reverse the situation on the ground?

The Ukrainian army currently seems to have the upper hand over Russia: having regained control of the Kharkiv region, it now appears determined to push the Russian troops out of the Luhansk region, in the Donbass.

Ukrainian forces have already taken over, on Monday, September 19, a town located in the suburbs of Lyssytchansk.

“It's simple: without these 300,000 additional men, the Russian defeat seemed almost certain.

This reinforcement should, in theory, provide Russia with a significant quantitative advantage”, specifies Nicolo Fasola.

But in practice, “the impact on the course of the war should not be significant”, estimates Jeff Hawn.

The decree only makes official “a mobilization of the shadows which had been underway for months”, specifies this specialist.

The Russian authorities were already stepping up efforts to encourage reservists to return to service. 

However, this decree introduces a nuance: reservists who refuse to go to the front risk heavy prison sentences – in this case, 10 to 15 years in prison.

“The effects of this partial mobilization will be more prisoners in Russia and more Russian soldiers dead on the front,” summarizes Jeff Hawn. 

For him, Vladimir Putin's appeal to the patriotic fiber to "defend Russia against the onslaught of the West" will have little effect on the extent of the mobilization.

A sign that Russian citizens are trying by all means to avoid the army, “direct flights between Moscow and Istanbul or Yerevan are full”, assures Turkish journalist Ragıp Soylu on Twitter.

They would have even been stormed last night, adds, still on Twitter, Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, a consulting firm for security issues in Russia.

In other words, the Russians sought to leave the country as soon as the tougher penalties for those who refuse to take up arms were announced.

Reservists but no weapons?

It must be said that the recourse to partial mobilization indicates that “Russia remains committed to the doctrine of mass warfare, which essentially consists of drowning the adversary in numbers even if this means losing a lot of soldiers.

It worked in Georgia (2008), during the annexation of Crimea (2014), but it is not certain that it will remain valid for this conflict”, underlines Nicolo Fasola.

Another problem: "This doctrine does not make it possible to compensate for the shortcomings of the Russian army brought to light by this war", believes Jeff Hawn. of NATO, the Russians appear badly equipped and badly commanded.

"Sending barely trained reservists who have no knowledge of the chain of command to the Ukrainian front will simply disrupt the Russian ranks a little more," said Jeff Hawn. 

Above all, with what weapons will they fight?

“The war and international sanctions have had the effect of partially paralyzing the Russian arms industry.

To equip 300,000 new soldiers, it will be necessary to draw on stocks of old weapons which will not be very effective against the equipment of the Ukrainians”, judges Nicolo Fasola. 

During his speech, Vladimir Putin certainly announced “an effort to allocate more resources to the manufacture of weapons.

But it will take time, more than to send the reservists to the front”, analyzes Nicolo Fasola. 

A reality which, according to this expert, risks resulting in a situation “of the most embarrassing for the Russian army”.

It will quickly receive – in the coming month – the first reinforcements linked to this mobilization effort.

But new soldiers may not have the necessary equipment to fight effectively.

They will then be the very definition of cannon fodder.

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