"Winter is coming", France sounded the alarm of "energy war" in advance

Observation | "Winter is coming", France sounded the "energy war" alarm in advance

　　Turn off Wi-Fi, wear down jackets at home, pee in the shower… the summer is not over yet, and the French are figuring out how to launch a national energy-saving campaign in winter.

"We are going through a war!" This is not the first time the French have heard such a solemn oath from President Macron - the last time was the "war on the new crown epidemic".

This time, the object of the war has become an energy crisis.

　　"The best energy is the energy we don't consume," Macron said at a press conference on Europe's energy crisis on September 5.

He urged French businesses and households to conserve energy, aiming to reduce energy consumption by 10 percent in the next few months, also by turning off heating and air conditioning.

　　Macron did not explain how to monitor or measure how the 10 percent energy-saving goal is achieved.

Due to rising energy prices, many French households have begun to curb their use of natural gas and electricity during the summer when heat waves swept across Europe.

French Prime Minister Borne also recently proposed a "tough medicine": if no solution is found, there may be a two-hour daily power cut in winter.

However, not everyone will heed the government's call.

　　Hearing Macron's "Declaration of War", the Frenchman Katya was a little disgusted.

"We really overreacted, it was too exaggerated, we were too emotional," she told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn), "I am not against sanctions, but from the moment they are imposed, you demand Your people are careful to turn off the heat in their homes, tell them we have to ration supply, and possibly power outages at times... these things are being imposed on us for no reason, it's absurd."

　　France is one of many European countries tightening their belts for the winter as energy costs soar.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which in Macron's eyes marked the "tragedy of the return of the old continent," has put Europe and France in a state of battle, with the enemy being Moscow's "energy weapon."

The Nord Stream-1, Russia's main natural gas pipeline to Germany, is still closed indefinitely. European Commission President von der Leyen said that the EU's electricity market cannot function normally due to the knock-on effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

　　Despite Macron's repeated calls to "stay awake," France and Europe may not be ready for this coming winter.

Summer is over, will winter be far behind?

　　From this autumn, the nightlife of bustling Paris will end earlier than usual.

After the store closes, the illuminated plaques dim.

The Eiffel Tower, which originally turned off its lights at 1 a.m., also turned into the night more than an hour earlier.

　　In July, France's major supermarkets had agreed to implement energy-saving plans as this year's record heatwave lingered.

In addition to turning off the lighting signs in advance, the supermarket also halved the lighting consumption before customers enter the store to achieve the goal of "systematically reducing lighting intensity".

Other measures include stopping nighttime ventilation and staggering ice-making periods.

In particular, the temperature in sales stores this autumn and winter will be lowered to 17 degrees Celsius, in response to regulatory requirements.

　　All aspects of life have been affected, and "energy saving" has also become a high-frequency word in French life.

Energy-saving advertisements are rolling on TV, and people are also concerned about the fluctuation of electricity prices.

"Everyone expects electricity prices to go up, people want to pay now, on our side, there will be a minimum fee, paid in advance, more refunds will be made at the end of the year, and if you pay now, it's not that expensive." Living in the south of France Alexander of Montpellier told The Paper that there has been a wave of "electricity purchases" in his community as soon as the fall begins.

　　Alexander said that the winter in southern France is not cold, and the residents will not be frozen.

"I don't turn on the heat unless it's snowing, but it rarely snows in Montpellier and our house usually stays at 20 to 21 degrees Celsius, but now the government advises us to turn on the heat to 19 degrees Celsius, ok Well...I don't know what will happen." But he also pointed out that the winter in central and northern France is still cold, and some people may need to buy generators to power their homes.

　　According to the French "Le Figaro" report, an energy-saving-related survey conducted by the French polling agency in July showed that 63% of respondents agreed to reduce energy consumption, including using the "environmentally friendly" program of washing machines, replacing traditional light bulbs with LED lights, reducing the temperature of home heating and shower water, etc.

The data also shows that corporate executives and the middle class seem to be more determined to save energy than the working class, people under 50 are more determined to save energy than older people, and urban residents are more determined than rural residents.

　　"I'm tired of walking through these windows that are brightly lit at night and seeing customers sipping coffee on auxiliary heated patios or having to wear short sleeves and vests in the air-conditioned section of supermarkets..." in a video posted to the top Among them, the host of the French BMF TV station advocates the values ​​of energy saving.

　　But some shocking footage also emerged in the video.

In July, the cars of government officials were parked in the Elysee Palace compound with their engines and air conditioners running.

Then a retired old man said in the picture, "The government told us to turn off the air conditioner, but I don't know anyone who has an air conditioner at home. Look! To repair some broken windows, I put thick tape. I care today. How to keep warm in winter..."

　　"While saving us electricity, the president takes his wife to 'drive racing' at sea? How much carbon emissions does this cause?" Alexander also complained about the difference between "little bourgeois" and "bottom people".

He was referring to the scene in late July when Macron and his wife Brigitte went to Fort Bregason, a summer residence in southern France, for a vacation. At that time, Macron was photographed by the media topless riding a motorboat at sea.

　　"After the first oil crisis in 1973, President Pompidou called on the French people to have a 'conservative spirit', people were asked to limit the heating temperature of their houses, to reduce the speed of vehicles ... but people at that time understood. The key question It's an education issue." Maxime Maury, a professor at Toulouse Business School, told Le Figaro, "If we ask the people to make sacrifices and the leaders don't set an example, we will face the new 'yellow vests' 'crisis."

"If factories don't survive this winter"

　　With gas and electricity prices rising in recent months, both the French government and the private sector have had to find ways to adapt and reduce operating costs.

Energy prices in France and across Europe hit record highs in late August.

In one year, electricity prices in France rose by 25% year-on-year to 1,130 euros per megawatt-hour, the first time French electricity prices have exceeded 1,000 euros, according to the European Energy Exchange.

　　At present, places with a high degree of energy dependence such as swimming pools, ice rinks, and ski resorts have had to be closed.

According to France 24 TV, the French company Vert Marine has decided on September 5 to close one-third of the public swimming pools it operates.

The company said in a press release that its annual energy expenditure has risen from 15 million euros to 100 million euros.

　　Local governments have also been hit hard by rising energy prices, with budgets in many towns starting to tighten.

"Our budgets are exploding and inflation is having a huge impact on all local governments," André Ranier, vice-president of the French Association of Mayors, told France 24 television.

Figures from the French Association of Small Towns show that energy expenditures in some cities have increased by 50 percent.

　　In a report released in late July, the French Senate warned that rising energy costs could put essential public services at risk and could force some institutions to abandon investments in the transition to green energy.

In addition, this will lead to increased local taxes, which will affect the purchasing power of households.

　　In Katya's view, this crisis cannot be overcome by ordinary people.

Katja, who is currently working in a chemical company, has personally experienced that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, her industry has gradually entered a cold winter.

　　"Because we produce chemical products, we are very dependent on natural gas supply. Like many other companies, our company is directly affected by this energy crisis, and the winter will be more difficult." Katya said that her company has about 500 employees. In recent months, it has lost nearly 3 million euros per month and is currently operating at its limit.

"If shareholders see the complexity of what lies ahead, they may not continue to invest."

　　French Prime Minister Borne at the end of August called on companies to immediately adjust their production plans.

“Climate change is no longer an inarticulate truth, but a disruptive reality. We must implement inspiring and innovative solutions that bring about powerful changes in the way production is done.” She pointed out that if Russia completely stops the For natural gas exports, France needs to quickly find "way to make the ecological transition into innovation, growth and jobs."

　　But long-term energy transition plans are now too late, and soaring prices have forced some companies to make strategic decisions ahead of winter.

The Dunkirk aluminium plant in northern France has decided to cut production by 22% in the final quarter of 2022.

The company will suffer heavy losses from October if production continues as planned, with electricity bills likely to increase from 40 million euros in September to December, the company's managing director, Guillaume Degoy, told Reuters. 150 million euros.

　　Duralex, a well-known French glass manufacturing company, announced on September 1 that from November, the company will not start the melting furnace of the factory for at least four months, and some employees will face unemployment.

In a statement explaining the decision, Duralex's president said, "producing at today's energy rates would result in unsustainable losses."

　　"There are many industries that are currently in danger, and many factory workers are unemployed." Katja told The Paper, "The impact of energy on industry is far greater than the impact on home heating. If the factory cannot survive this winter, workers will cannot survive.”

　　France and Germany join forces to overcome the crisis?

　　Compared with other countries in Europe, France is highly dependent on nuclear power, with about 70% of its electricity supply coming from nuclear energy.

With Gazprom becoming increasingly scarce, the issue of nuclear power is at the heart of all discussions.

Critics have targeted Macron since the French government released figures on soaring electricity prices in late August.

　　"Macron destroyed our energy independence. It was he who announced the closure of 14 nuclear reactors in 2018," French Republican lawmaker Eric Ciotti wrote on Twitter.

Columnist Laurent Alexander said, "Today, after energy shortages, we are reconfiguring energy rationing to please ecologists."

　　Macron did promise in his 2017 campaign to reduce nuclear's share of energy production to 50%, amid calls for Europe to denuclearize.

But in fact, after entering the Elysee Palace, his posture has undergone a more natural change.

In October 2021, Macron announced a large "nuclear power recovery plan" that aims to build six new nuclear reactors by 2050.

French TV 1 reported that although an energy planning law in 2020 mandated the closure of 12 nuclear reactors, only two were actually shut down as a direct result of Macron's policies.

　　Still, Macron's pre-employment promises have had a considerable impact on nuclear power production.

Jean-Bernard Lévy, director general of EDF, bluntly said EDF was in a state of tension because of the lack of a "well-trained team".

"Why don't we have enough teams trained? Because we're told: nuclear power will decline, power plants will be ready to shut down."

　　"In fact, we redistributed electricity produced in other countries through the EU, including coal power and renewable energy, and finally the price we saw in France increased." Katya also believes that "in the EU Horizontally, every country pays more or less the same, but in France, if we keep nuclear power, our electricity price will be cheaper. We should bring the electricity price down by ourselves first, and then let the other countries get from it benefit."

　　Some economists believe that France's nuclear power problem has become a bigger challenge than Gazprom's supply.

At present, 56 nuclear reactors in France have been forced to shut down because of corrosion problems, they have to undergo overdue maintenance and inspections, and some reactors have to cut production in the summer.

According to data provided by the EDF, as of August 29 this year, 57% of France's nuclear power plants were "offline".

　　In a normal year, France exports 10 percent of its nuclear power during the warmer months, but during peak winter consumption, France imports electricity from neighboring countries, especially Germany, Reuters reported.

This summer, France's electricity was not exported, but imported from Belgium and Germany.

　　To overcome the energy challenges posed by the reactor shutdown, Macron called for European solidarity - more specifically, for Franco-German mutual assistance.

On September 5, after a video conference with German Chancellor Scholz, Macron announced that France would increase the supply of natural gas to Germany in exchange for continuing to supply electricity to France.

At the same time, self-defeating Germany has announced the restart of closed coal plants and an extension of nuclear power production for several months.

　　"We are closer to Russia and could have had much cheaper gas, why would we do that?" Katya, a graduate of international relations, felt "unprecedented disappointment" with the EU.

　　Katya was born in France and is half-Russian, but she says this factor does not affect her judgment as a French citizen.

"I used to be a very pro-EU guy, but now I've changed my mind. For many people, their lives have been changed, and the straw that broke them could be the energy crisis."

　　On September 7, Von der Leyen said that Russia's "manipulation of the natural gas market" and climate change have jointly caused energy prices to soar in Europe. Therefore, five measures should be taken immediately to deal with the crisis, including mandatory measures to reduce electricity consumption during peak hours. , set a cap on the income of “low-cost power generation” companies such as new energy and nuclear energy, impose high taxes on fossil fuel companies, and set a price cap on natural gas imported from Russia.

But so far, the 27 EU member states have struggled to agree on this.

　　"How did we get here? I think it's kind of ridiculous, but I really don't know how it ends," Katya said. "I'm against war, it affects so many countries in the world ... but we use (sanctions) ) to deal with Putin in this way, then he can only continue his war.” (The Paper reporter Yu Xiaoxuan)