Several countries are becoming more vulnerable to the use of lethal weapons

The world faces the challenge of defusing a devastating nuclear war

• Russia may be forced to opt for the nuclear option if it is defeated in the war.

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• Mohamed ElBaradei (left) was awarded the Nobel Prize for his efforts to promote world peace.

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• There will be no winners in any nuclear conflict.

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During the Cold War, millions of people slept every night in fear of nuclear conflict.

However, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world has increasingly viewed the threat of nuclear war as unlikely.

Today, with the Russian war in Ukraine intensifying, and great-power competition intensifying, it is necessary to reconsider our assumptions about the possibility of nuclear conflict.

The only way to effectively protect against the unfolding "annihilation of the world" scenario is to strengthen the current international nuclear weapons system.

In a letter sent in early August to participants in a conference on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: "There can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it should never be unleashed."

This was an attempt by Putin to roll back an earlier threat as Russia's invasion of Ukraine began.

West warning

At the time, in an apparent reference to the Kremlin's nuclear arsenal, Putin warned the West that any attempts to interfere in Moscow's military campaign against its neighbor would lead to "consequences not encountered in your history."

Days later, Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert.

Six months later, Russia's dismal performance on the battlefield has suffered a setback, while Moscow is reeling under the weight of massive sanctions.

Senior Russian spokesmen have hinted at the use of tactical nuclear weapons, or worse.

CIA Director William Burns noted this, during a public address in April, warning that Putin might resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons if he felt Russia was facing a heavy loss in its war in Ukraine.

Three weeks later, in an interview with the Financial Times, Burns noted, again, that "given the kind of military threats we've heard from the Russian leadership," Washington "cannot underestimate" the possibility of Russia carrying out a low-yield nuclear strike.

source of concern

While the risk of Russia launching nuclear attacks has increased due to its war in Ukraine, it is certainly not the only concern on this front.

More recently, given the escalating tensions over Taiwan, the risks of war between the United States and China have increased.

Given that Beijing's conventional military capabilities are much weaker than Washington's, the same logic applies to the Chinese case: In an effort to avoid defeat, which could also translate into a weakening of the regime, the Chinese decide to resort to nuclear weapons.

The great powers are not the only ones who could resort to the use of nuclear weapons in certain situations.

And just last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatened that his country was ready to deploy its nuclear forces if US-backed South Korea decided to launch preemptive strikes against Pyongyang.

Likewise, given the state of South Asia's geopolitics, the risks of nuclear exchange in the region are on the rise.

Given its traditional contrast with its arch-rival - India, Pakistan retained a policy of nuclear use for the first time.

But now, with Islamabad's economy entering its weakest moment, amid growing security challenges, particularly from extremists, and the rise of the far-right Hindu nationalist regime in neighboring India, the risks of nuclear conflict in the Indian subcontinent are much greater than before.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, regardless of whether there is a new nuclear deal or not, Iran can be expected to continue to pursue nuclear weapons, especially as the regime is weakening internally, while maintaining an aggressive foreign policy.

Previous successes

At a time when we have many nuclear flashpoints, it is important to look back at past nuclear disarmament successes.

Of course, there are only a few of these cases, which include Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine and South Africa.

However, each offers important lessons that can help advance efforts toward international nuclear security.

The case of Kazakhstan is particularly noteworthy, as a new country that emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union had the fourth largest arsenal in the world.

Countless citizens died of radiation poisoning, or cancer, as a result of more than 450 Soviet nuclear tests at the huge Semipalatinsk nuclear test ground.

The Eurasian state not only renounced nuclear weapons, but also emerged as a leader in international efforts for nuclear disarmament, as evidenced by former President Nursultan Nazarbayev's first executive order upon independence, the closure of the Simi site.

Unlike other nuclear test sites, Simi has been closed forever.

Kazakhstan's 2009 initiative to declare August 29 the International Day Against Nuclear Tests was unanimously adopted at the United Nations General Assembly.

And the world finally celebrated this important date.

Although symbolic in nature, such moves go a long way in mobilizing the collective action necessary to advance critical international standards of global non-proliferation.

It promotes multilateral diplomacy, which faces serious limitations.

Business as usual is not enough to constrain the behavior of states that find themselves in existential situations.

"Nobel for Peace"

This is where the Nobel Peace Prize, first established to advance the global pursuit of peace, can play a major role in shaping the global dialogue.

But in the past three decades, the annual award has only been given twice, in recognition of efforts to achieve nuclear security.

The first was in 2005, when the International Atomic Energy Agency and its then director, Mohamed ElBaradei, received the Nobel Peace Prize.

Twelve years later, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons received the prestigious award.

There is no greater threat to international security than the possibility of nuclear war.

In an increasingly multipolar global environment, especially amid the serious deterioration of the rules-based international order, the danger is growing.

The Nobel Peace Prize in itself is recognition of the efforts of individuals and institutions to promote international peace.

Much more important are the criteria that the award poses in the process.

Today, it is critical that the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee help counter the escalating threats of nuclear conflict.

• With the intensification of the Russian war in Ukraine, and the intensification of competition between the great powers, it is necessary to reconsider our assumptions about the possibility of nuclear conflict.

• Due to its traditional contrast with its arch-rival - India, Pakistan has retained its nuclear use policy for the first time.

• 450 Soviet nuclear tests were conducted at the huge nuclear test ground in Semipalatinsk.

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