Tehran -
After rounds of negotiations between Tehran and Washington through the European mediator, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced, last week, that Iran's latest response to the European proposal "makes the prospects of reaching an agreement in the near term unlikely," while the foreign policy official in The European Union, Josep Borrell, the diplomatic track has reached a "stalemate".
Contrary to Western pessimism about the possibility of saving the nuclear agreement in the near term, the Iranian side's comments were optimistic about the negotiations aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement, coupled with readiness for constructive cooperation in order to close the controversial file with the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding questions about the effects of uranium in 3 undeclared sites. .
In light of the assessments regarding the decline in hopes of saving the nuclear agreement, especially after the IAEA confirmed that it was unable to guarantee the peacefulness of the Iranian nuclear program, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said - in a press statement - that there is no fundamental impediment to the path of reviving the nuclear agreement. He described the issues raised regarding the presence of uranium traces in undeclared Iranian sites as "fabricated political files."
In addition to the Iranian-Western disagreement regarding the Vienna nuclear negotiations, observers in Iran have varied opinions about the diplomatic track and its ability to overcome obstacles, while some attributed the reason for Tehran's optimism in the possibility of reviving the nuclear agreement to the cards owned by the Islamic Republic.
continuity of negotiations
For her part, the international affairs researcher, Parasto Bahrami Rad, sees the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the worsening energy crisis in Europe as a catalyst for reaching an understanding on the nuclear agreement, stressing that "despite the Western declaration that the negotiations reached a dead end, they did not stop behind the scenes." ".
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the researcher reads the positions of the Iranian and American sides in the context of their policy to strip the largest amount of privileges from the opposing party, stressing that "the threat of a decline in the diplomatic option, coinciding with the International Atomic Energy Agency's issuance of its latest report comes to undermine the Iranian economy and create popular pressure on the Iranian government." ".
And two-thirds of the members of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors (comprising of 35 countries) supported - last Wednesday - a non-binding statement put forward by the United States, Britain, France and Germany, demanding that Tehran provide an explanation for why there are traces of uranium in its undeclared sites.
Bahrami Rad attributes the reason for prolonging the nuclear negotiations to Tehran's insistence on the approach of correspondence through a mediator, and its non-acceptance of negotiating directly with the United States to unilaterally withdraw the latter from the nuclear agreement in 2018.
And she asserts that she does not expect a major breakthrough in the course of negotiations that depend on correspondence, and the policy of responding to response, explaining that "the European side would have urged the Iranian and American sides to negotiate directly in the round that was held in Doha, without the presence of the other parties to the nuclear agreement."
Possible scenarios
Bahrami Rad believes that the future of the nuclear negotiations will not deviate from the following two scenarios:
First: The resumption of nuclear negotiations on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings;
It will be attended by Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi at the head of a high-level Iranian delegation, which will provide an opportunity for the European parties to the nuclear agreement to move the stagnant waters and discuss the outstanding issues with it closely.
Although an agreement in New York would be possible, it is unlikely at the present stage.
Second: Resuming nuclear negotiations after the US midterm elections scheduled for next November, with European mediation, and working to bridge the gap between the Iranian and American visions.
pressure coup
For his part, Professor of International Relations at the University of Tehran, Mohsen Jaliland, believes that there is no way for both Iran and the United States but to revive the nuclear agreement, adding that "the great rift in the positions of the two sides makes reviving the nuclear agreement until next March a very difficult task."
Gilliund reveals to Al Jazeera Net, "an American request that the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's fatwa on the inviolability of the atomic bomb industry be converted into a law in the Iranian parliament, which Tehran rejects altogether and in detail, similar to Washington's refusal to give guarantees that the next US government will not withdraw from the nuclear agreement again." .
The Iranian academic sees the cessation of the Russian war on Ukraine as a catalyst for reviving the nuclear agreement, while stressing that "the Republican victory in the upcoming US elections will complicate saving the agreement."
Jilund attributed the reason for Tehran's optimism in the possibility of reviving the nuclear agreement to the cards owned by the Islamic Republic.
The professor of international relations believes that Tehran sees the postponement of reaching an agreement on its nuclear file as an opportunity to continue developing its nuclear program, which it considers a factor of pressure on the Western side.
The coup confirms the policy of maximum pressure exerted by Washington on Tehran, which enables the latter to adhere to its conditions and not make concessions despite the announcement that the negotiations have reached a dead end.