European
natural gas traders
know that next winter will not be easy, but they are optimistic to the point that some of them have started making a wild prediction:
prices may have peaked
.
The
Financial Times
notes this , recalling that on August 26 the price of wholesale gas in Europe reached an intraday maximum of
343 euros
per megawatt hour - the equivalent in terms of oil of almost
580 dollars a barrel
- but has since dropped. about
200 euros / MWh
.
Prices, observes the British newspaper, are still very high compared to historical standards, almost
10 times the average level of the last decade
and more than double the level at the beginning of June, before Russia reduced supplies from the
Nord Stream 1
pipeline , its main export channel to Europe.
According to traders, however, the price trend in recent days suggests that the market may have reached a
turning point
and thus
stabilize in the coming weeks
, as happened this spring after the initial surge following the invasion of Ukraine. by Russia.
"
We could have a welcome respite towards the winter
", said an analyst of an energy trading company in Switzerland to the Ft. "
It does not mean
- he observed -
that the situation is resolved, far from it, but also a temporary moment of slightly lower prices are welcome
. "
Recently, Goldman Sachs
economists
predicted that European gas prices
will drop
, potentially
below € 100 / MWh by spring.
, before going up again next summer when the rush of operators to fill the storage facilities will be repeated.
According to some analysts, the fact that Russia has already cut gas supplies to Europe by around 80% could still mean that Putin's ability to reserve surprises for the market is exhausted.
Furthermore, gas storage targets in Europe, which have prompted operators to buy supplies ahead of the winter in a more frenetic way, are now well ahead of schedule, having reached 84% of capacity.
Although concerns remain over the availability of sufficient stocks for the winter, the buying frenzy has subsided slightly.
ICIS
Industrial gas demand and price trends in central Europe
However, it is
too early to claim victory
: the cooling of prices may not last, as the cost of gas is still
volatile
.
On Wednesday and Thursday, prices jumped by about
25%
, demonstrating how the market remains volatile while the EU is discussing potential price caps on imports and nothing has yet been defined.
In short, even if prices have dropped by more than 100 euros compared to the summer peak, there are still many risk factors to be evaluated, in addition to the fact that governments will have to incur additional costs to help families and businesses penalized by the whirlwind price increase.
For example, a very cold
winter
in the Northern Hemisphere - in Europe, Asia or both - would increase competition for LNG marine cargoes, given the critical role of this fuel for heating, which could drive up again. prices.
Also of
concern
is the
hurricane season in the United States
, which is now the main exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe: any damage caused by storms to export terminals could drastically increase the price across the Atlantic.