Science and Technology Daily, Beijing, September 15 (Reporter Zhang Mengran) A new study published in the journal Science by researchers at the University of California, San Diego shows that China-US low-carbon technology cooperation poses almost no national security risk and economic risk, while The current U.S. decoupling of clean energy technologies from China could undermine U.S. and global efforts to mitigate climate change.
The study refutes the assumption that U.S.-China cooperation presents significant national security and economic risks across the board.
These risks have underpinned policies in three U.S. administrations and most European governments, ranging from import tariffs to increased scrutiny of scientific collaboration.
In addition to increasing innovation, a major benefit of collaboration is making these technologies more affordable, according to Michael Davidson, lead author of the new study and an assistant professor at UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy.
So in hindering such cooperation, it is also necessary to look objectively at specific policy goals and how they affect the ability to respond to the threat of climate change.
The study was designed to investigate assertions made by U.S. policymakers that cooperation with China on low-carbon technologies could threaten U.S. economic and national security interests.
Using quantitative and qualitative data, the study breaks down the risks of collaborative development of 5 key technologies to reduce CO2 emissions: wind, solar, carbon capture and storage (CCS), batteries and "green" steel.
The findings suggest that various low-carbon technologies have little impact on U.S. national security threats.
For example, open research and development on batteries is considered a safety issue because they can be used for military purposes, but these batteries are not the same as those needed to combat large-scale climate change.
The study describes how solar photovoltaic panels and batteries present a higher risk of supply chain disruption due to the high concentration of manufacturing in China.
To mitigate these risks, the study provides a novel framework for calibrating responses to the specifics of specific industries and technologies.
For example, as opposed to the binary choice between open supply chains and domestic supply chains, the study identifies a range of diversification options that can reduce policy risk.
Another reason for the U.S. to reduce trade with China is to create jobs.
For example, the Biden administration decided to use the Defense Production Act to increase domestic solar manufacturing, claiming it "will benefit companies, places and workers."
But if it increases the cost of solar PV and slows deployment, the bill would only result in limited jobs and higher emissions, the researchers noted.
Building photovoltaic panels is often the least labor-intensive part of an entire business, with more people involved in developing, installing, maintaining and operating solar projects.
These jobs are difficult to outsource, and they suffer when PV costs increase.
To measure the level of economic and national security risk for a given technology, the new study uses industry and government data to assess the current level of dependence on China for different technology components.
Since these risks are difficult to quantify, the study provides in-depth cases combining quantitative and subjective assessments for assigning risk levels to each category, such as unemployment, intellectual property, supply chain, critical infrastructure, and more.
For most technologies, decoupling is worse than cooperation, the researchers noted.
There are enormous benefits to having an open supply chain and research environment, and policies aimed at disrupting or decoupling should be based on sound, objective assessments of risk and reward.