Translation Introduction:

In a dramatic turn in the tide of the war, the Ukrainians began to launch preemptive strikes against Russia in Crimea, while launching a counterattack that succeeded in recovering several thousand kilometers of territory.

In this context, Patrick Tucker, technology editor at Defense One, discusses possible Ukrainian strikes during the coming winter with the aim of weakening the capacity of Russian forces.

Tucker believes that these counterattacks will inflict severe damage on Russian soldiers who may end up "homeless" without food or even ammunition.

Translation text:

Many have speculated that the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian bases in Crimea are the beginning of a long-awaited Ukrainian counter-attack aimed at reclaiming territory stolen from the February invasion.

However, a number of experts suggested that the attacks were an attempt to prevent Russian forces from getting supplies or advancing further than they had reached.

It appears, then, that the series of bombings that took place on August 9 at the Saki air base, and the August 20 strikes on the Russian naval port of Sevastopol in Crimea, marked the beginning of a new phase of the conflict in conjunction with the directing of the Russian forces to focus in the Donbass region and southern Ukraine.

"The long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive began in the south with an explosion in Crimea," Politico said.

But a military analyst specializing in Eastern Europe, who asked not to be identified because of his continued work with the US government, said Ukraine's goals are probably more modest: "They are not trying to eliminate the (Russian) Black Sea Fleet, but rather to eliminate support The air force that is based on Crimea and supports the Russian front in the south, and they are trying to eliminate the main railway linking Crimea and Kherson,” the Ukrainian city currently under the control of the Russians.

The analyst said that even the fighting in the vicinity of "Kherson" does not necessarily herald the entry of Ukrainians into the city: "It does not seem that there are any preparations in that area to launch an attack, and there are no real movements of forces there, but the Ukrainians are trying to isolate the Russian forces in the upper region of the city." Kherson is nothing but. The reason for their strikes on these areas is the presence of three main bases from which Russia obtains the necessary air support from Crimea, and the Ukrainians are also trying to weaken the capabilities of those bases.All of the above are things that Russia can recover from, but it will represent a real problem. in the coming weeks."

Charles Farrer, a former US Navy soldier, said the current efforts appear to be aimed at weakening and isolating Russian forces in Kherson in order to put Russian leaders in a difficult position, trying to hold on to the area with little hope of relief or support. Or find a way out before it's too late.

Farrer added that Ukraine "has been able to cut off all the tributaries of the river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, stifling (Russian) communications and supplies to the forces of the north bank."

In turn, the United States continues to supply Ukraine with ammunition, which consists mostly of bullets and unguided mortars, while some laser-guided munitions help the Ukrainian artillery fire from a smaller number, to achieve the greatest possible effect.

winter is coming

Russia will witness Ukrainian strikes on transport infrastructure and road-paving efforts to cut off the movement of potential Russian reinforcements towards a designated point of attack (Reuters)

Farrer says Ukraine's goals tell us its strategy in combat: "They bomb ammunition depots, they hit fuel sources, they target important supplies. And if you have a soldier on the battlefield who doesn't have any ammunition and no food, he's not a soldier. He's homeless."

This suggests that Ukraine is pursuing a policy of long breathing, and is seeking to make the life of the Russian forces more difficult, especially when winter comes.

Farrer added that "whatever the Ukrainians did to make the logistical conditions more difficult (for the Russians) now in the summer, it will become ten times worse for the Russian soldiers in the winter. They will not only feel thirsty, but also cold and hungry."

A former senior US State Department official who remains in regular contact with the Ukrainian military's high command agreed that Ukraine's current strategy is targeted strikes to weaken Russia's ability to provide support and supply to its units in the south.

“I think what the Ukrainians are thinking about is impeding Russia’s ability to keep track of its progress,” the former official explained. “They are destroying ammunition, fuel, logistics, bridges, railroads, perhaps trying to get a little bit of Sevastopol.” Russia has maintained its military offensives” by strengthening Ukraine’s control over the sea route between “Odessa” and “Romania,” making it more difficult than before to resupply Russian forces by sea.

The former official agreed with Farrar that the top priority for the Ukrainians now is to make life difficult for Russian forces in Kherson and its surroundings as much as possible in the coming months.

"The Ukrainians basically want to starve the Russian forces as much as possible in terms of ammunition and fuel, and they want to achieve this before winter. The next step will be to cut the land lines of communication coming from Russia and passing through the Donbass, Maripol, Zaporozhye Province, and even Kherson Province," the former official explained.

In the end, if the Ukrainians could regain control of the area west of the Dnieper River by the end of the year;

They will be in a good enough position to look forward to making further progress on the ground."

Another major short-term goal, the former US official said, is to make Crimea militarily useless for Russian forces.

Farrer says the success of these efforts means that the Ukrainians can pursue more ambitious goals, such as destroying the Russian Command and Control Department, similar to the recent attack on a command post in Kherson.

Farrer added, "At the beginning of this attack, we will witness massive, coordinated strikes on elements of the Russian command headquarters to move closer to the headquarters and control. We will witness Ukrainian strikes on transport infrastructure and road-paving efforts to cut off the movement of potential Russian reinforcements towards a particular point of attack. Most important, of course, We will witness the Ukrainians strangling logistics."

under pressure

US MGM-140 Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) (Getty Images)

The Ukrainians, for their part, face two different sources of pressure: supplies and time.

Regarding the first point, Farrer and the former US official said that Ukraine needs more long-range missiles, such as the US MGM-140 Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which can be launched from its HIMARS launcher. Ukrainians already.

The Ukrainians have repeatedly requested the MGM-140 missile system since last February, a Ukrainian military official told Defense One.

The official did not say whether Washington had yet supplied it to Ukraine, as the system is not yet on the Pentagon's published list of weapons supplies.

Russia's air defenses are very effective against long-range missiles, and Ukraine has been able to hit targets in Crimea without using them, according to Sergei Grabky, a colonel in the Ukrainian Army, in a podcast titled "Geopolitics Decanted" on August 3. .

It appears that at least one of the Ukrainian strikes against Crimea was carried out with a suicide march purchased through the Chinese site "Ali Baba" for about eight thousand dollars.

According to the former US official, if the Ukrainians wanted to take control of their command posts, they would need intense firepower. “What I have been told about the current artillery shells that we provide to the Ukrainians is that they are already doing well in hitting ammunition depots and fuel supplies. But when it comes to "With the Russian command posts, they are protected by some kind of air defense system that can shoot down missiles. So the only way to destroy the command post is to exhaust the air defense system by firing more missiles."

Time is the other source of pressure on Ukraine.

While the onset of winter is expected to make life difficult for Russian soldiers in the country, American and European politicians may want to see some results of their aid before the first snow falls this winter.

The American analyst said that the real danger that Ukraine faces is not to launch an attack that fails militarily, but to launch an attack that does not convince the West enough: Why give them more then?"

Russia is also increasing the pressure with a series of upcoming referendums to declare the territory captured by a Russian region.

While such efforts will not convince the international community or the Ukrainians, they add a complicating factor to the scene.

According to the American analyst, "This is an important element, as there are strong fears that Russia may consolidate its political control over these areas, and that Ukraine will not be able to recover them at that time."

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This article is translated from and does not necessarily reflect the Medan website.

Translation: Hadeer Abdel Azim.