RAMALLAH -

September 13 marks the anniversary of the signing of the "Oslo" agreement between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel, under which the Palestinian Authority was established.

What is this agreement?

The Oslo Declaration of Principles, a political agreement signed, with an international presence, was called the PLO as the "sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people" with Israel on September 13, 1993.

The agreement was signed at the US White House by then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on the Israeli side, and on the Palestinian side, late President Yasser Arafat.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas presents maps of the rest of the Palestinian territories since the Balfour Declaration until 2020 (European)

What is the purpose of the agreement and negotiations?

The agreement provides for "an end to decades of confrontation and conflict, and the recognition of their mutual legitimate and political rights."

It addressed the structure and composition of the Palestinian Authority, and stated that the goal of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations was, among other things, the establishment of a Palestinian interim self-governing authority.

According to the agreement, the transitional period does not exceed 5 years, and leads to a permanent settlement based on Security Council Resolutions No. 242 (which stipulated Israel’s withdrawal from the occupied territories in 1967) and No. 338 (the cease-fire between the Arabs and Israel).

On September 28, 1995, he signed in Washington, DC, the second phase of the agreement (Taba/Oslo-2), according to which the Palestinian Authority would recover 30% of the area of ​​the West Bank.

How divided the agreement the Palestinian territories?

The Taba Agreement divided the West Bank into 3 areas, with Israel retaining control over the borders, external security, Jerusalem, and settlements, and "responsibility for the overall security of the Israelis."

The three regions are:

– Area “A”: It is subject to the security and administrative authority of the Palestinian Authority, which is the city centers, and its area is 21% of the area of ​​the West Bank, which is about 5,760 km, out of 27,000 km² that is the area of ​​historical Palestine.

Area B: Administratively under the Palestinian Authority and security for Israel, it is estimated at about 18% of the West Bank, and it is mostly populated areas in villages and suburbs.

Area “C”: It is completely under Israeli control for security and administration. It is the least populated and largest in area, estimated at 61% of the area of ​​the West Bank.

image from memory...

The moment a member of the Al-Aqsa Brigades handed over his weapon to the Palestinian Authority, after a decision by the Fatah movement through the Palestinian Authority to dissolve the resistance formations in the West Bank and Gaza.

The history of the photo dates back to the nineties of the last century after the #Oslo shame agreement, in which it ceded 78% of Palestine to the entity.

pic.twitter.com/z5I3JRIINw

— Yahya Bashir |

Yahya Basheer (@Yahya_M_Basheer) September 8, 2022

What is the fate of the lands controlled by the Ramallah authority?

After the head of the opposition Likud Party at the time, Ariel Sharon, stormed the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque on September 28, 2000, the Al-Aqsa Intifada broke out. Within less than two years, Israel reoccupied all Palestinian-controlled areas in the West Bank, and in 2005 withdrew unilaterally from its settlements in the Gaza Strip.

Why did not establish a Palestinian state?

The outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Intifada came more than a year after the end of the transitional period without the establishment of a Palestinian state, and months after the failure of the Camp David summit in Maryland (July 11, 2000) as a result of disagreements over the issue of Jerusalem and the refusal to consider it the capital of the Palestinians.

The summit brought together US President Bill Clinton, then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Palestinian National Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat.

According to the data of the Research Center of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Israel established 38 settlements in the occupied territories from 1967 to 1977, an additional 78 settlements until 1990, 12 new settlements between 1990 and 2000, and 99 outposts between 2000 and 2012.

Today, the left-wing Israeli Peace Now movement says that 132 settlements and 147 outposts are spread in the West Bank.

This is the reality that made the possibility of establishing a contiguous Palestinian state impossible.

As for the number of settlers, it has multiplied several times during the past three decades, as it was estimated at 105 thousand in 1991, about 210,000 in 2000, 340,000 in 2012, about 451,000 in the West Bank, and about 230,000 in East Jerusalem.

The areas divided by the Oslo Accords in the West Bank (Al-Jazeera)

Why was the Oslo agreement signed?

Professor of Political Science at Hebron University, Bilal Al-Shobaki, answers by saying that the two parties to the agreement did not believe that it would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, but each party had its own philosophy that prompted it to this agreement.

Israel - and speaking of Al-Shobaki - saw in it an opportunity and a wide space to continue settlement and Judaization while reducing the forms of Palestinian struggle, and neutralizing a large movement such as "Fatah", which was active from outside and inside Palestine.

He added that the negotiations for Israel were "an end and not necessarily a means that might lead to results on the ground, and relieved itself of the burdens of occupation."

As for the Palestinians, the Palestinian academic explains that the leadership of the Liberation Organization was not at the heart of one man, "a part that believed that the agreement might lead to a state, including the current President Mahmoud Abbas, and another who saw in it a form of conflict management, and going to it is the departure of the obliged, not the chosen."

Al-Shobaki points to a regional variable that pushed the Palestinians to Oslo. On the one hand, the PLO lost geography that put it in direct contact with the Palestinian lands, and thus lost the ability to engage in militancy, and on the other hand, it lost Arab material and political support after siding with Saddam Hussein in his invasion of Kuwait. .

In light of these changes, a Palestinian group, led by the late President Arafat, saw that Oslo might be the bridge that would bring the PLO back to the interior, and carry out its work from there.

In summary, Al-Shobaki says that Oslo no longer exists legally or politically, "the transitional period has ended, and there is a temporal and spatial condition that has been violated by the Israeli side."


Why the Palestinian insistence on negotiations despite their failure?

Al-Shobaki believes that there is no consensus among the Palestinian leadership that it is the best option, but it is “the insistence of the impotent after the re-formation of the Palestinian Authority according to a new philosophy after the Al-Aqsa Intifada, based on the establishment of state institutions until their establishment or recognition.”

How did Israel get rid of the "Palestinian burden"?

According to the Palestinian lecturer, today, 29 years after Oslo, Israel does not bear the costs of managing the daily life of the Palestinian people as a people under occupation, and it has placed this on the shoulders of the Palestinians themselves.

He added, "The Palestinian has been burdened with the burdens of state institutions at a stage below the state and before liberation, and it is no longer possible to evade the huge institutional structure or retreat back because that means compromising people's daily lives."

In his belief, "the regional and international forces who contributed to the establishment of the authority, and the occupation built it to be incapable of leading the struggle against the occupation."

Simultaneously, Al-Shobaki referred to the marginalization of the PLO as a historical and human-rights front for the struggle.

Where is the US role in the conflict?

Ayman Youssef, a researcher on Palestinian-American relations, goes back to 1993, when the Oslo Accords were born under the auspices of the United States, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the international system into unipolarity.

Youssef believes that the American role differed, as the democratic administration led by Bill Clinton was more impulsive and motivated and a desire to make a breakthrough in the peace process file at that stage.

Now, Yusef adds, "the situation is different, and although the administration is democratic led by Joe Biden, the American role has differed and it has no desire to make progress, but rather adopts the Israeli point of view."

Hence, the Palestinian academic continues that the US administration is convinced that radical solutions to the conflict are not possible, and is heading towards managing it and expanding the circle of Arab normalization with Israel, without any effort to bring peace, and with no Palestinian state in sight.

Abbas mediates the Palestinian delegation to the United Nations after voting on a resolution to raise the status of the National Authority to an observer state (European)

What is the status of Palestine in the United Nations now?

In 2012, the United Nations General Assembly approved, by a majority of 138 countries, granting Palestine the status of a non-member state such as the Vatican, and this measure allowed the authority in Ramallah to participate in some voting processes in the General Assembly and to join some international bodies.

The Palestinians are seeking to apply to the Security Council for full membership, which would give them international recognition of their state.

And any country that applies to join the United Nations must obtain the approval of the Security Council first, as the United States has the right of veto (veto) before adopting the resolution in the General Assembly of this international organization.


How does the state?

Today, 29 years after the Oslo Accords, 40% of Palestinians support the two-state solution (Palestinian and Israeli) and 58% oppose it, according to a Palestinian Center for Survey Studies and Research poll published last March.

And 70% oppose returning to negotiations with Tel Aviv without preconditions.

And 68% say that the chances of establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, during the next five years, are slim or very small, and 30% believe that the chances are medium or high.

Regarding the best way to end the occupation and establish an independent state, the Palestinians were divided into 3 groups: 44% say it is achieved by armed action, 25% believe in negotiations, and 24% believe in peaceful popular resistance.

The signatories of the Oslo Agreement believed that it would lead to the establishment of a state for them (Al-Jazeera)

What is on the horizon?

Al-Shobaki believes that Israel has succeeded in gradually transforming the Palestinian national movement into political parties, "and it is not possible now to take steps back, because the price of this is great at the level of the street, which is not prepared for any revolution or struggle."

He added that the occupation is in complete control of the scene, while the National Authority has transformed from the seed of a state into a large municipality that partially manages the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and is concerned with the affairs of the population in a service far from the national or political dimension.

After 29 years of "Oslo", Al-Shobaki summarizes the scene "from the seed of a state in 1993 to humanitarian services and facilities such as the fourth generation of communications, according to what President Biden announced on his recent visit to Bethlehem."