More than 400 dead in the first 96 hours.

This is how the scenario looks in the event of a comprehensive and prolonged power failure in the Rheingau and Untertaunus.

Against the background of a possible gas shortage and the resulting possible widespread power failures, the Rheingau-Taunus district is dealing with the expected consequences and the options of the district administration and the 17 municipalities to cushion these consequences.

Oliver Bock

Correspondent for the Rhein-Main-Zeitung for the Rheingau-Taunus district and for Wiesbaden.

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What to do when the filling stations no longer deliver fuel due to a lack of electricity, when the telephone and mobile phone networks fail, when the emergency power generators run empty due to a lack of diesel and heating fails across the board?

According to district fire inspector Christian Rossel, the extent of the damage depends primarily on the duration of the crisis.

Short-term shutdowns of circuits, for example in the course of rationing, are manageable.

A real blackout, however, would have consequences for which the district would find it difficult to prepare.

That would then be a different life that is difficult to imagine today, says Rossel.

He expects that citizens and companies will arm themselves in terms of personal responsibility, as far as they can.

The district has no capacity to equip old people's and nursing homes with emergency generators, for example.

After all, a third of the 100 fire brigade equipment houses in the 811 square kilometer area can be operated with emergency power, and it is foreseeable that there will be even more.

Two hours after the power failure, many fire and alarm systems would go out

The district house also has a powerful emergency power system with 1000 liters of diesel as a reserve.

However, they are only sufficient for 16 hours of continuous operation.

If all the emergency generators are running in a circle, then several tens of thousands of liters of fuel have to be refilled every day.

Where to get it when the gas stations are shut down?

These are all questions that the district and the specialist service led by Rossel are currently dealing with intensively.

For this purpose, staffs were set up and working groups set up to get an overview.

"Communication," says Rossel, is of crucial importance.

Will the rescue workers in the district be able to vote, organize and coordinate themselves without electricity, and how do emergency calls from private households reach the rescue control center?

The district has had Berlin experts draw up an analysis that proves, among other things, that the lights go out very quickly in some town halls in the district and that the administration will then only be able to act to a very limited extent.

Just two hours after a power failure, many fire and alarm systems will no longer work and mobile communications will have failed.

After eight hours, the emergency services' digital radio also gave up.

At the latest when the substations fail after 24 hours, the first sewage treatment plants in the district will also stop operating.

According to the analysis, the "mass die-off" of livestock begins shortly beforehand, some of which can no longer be cared for.

In the event of a power failure lasting four days or longer, destruction through looting and fires, which can break out for a variety of reasons, is also foreseeable.

This total damage could add up to almost 200 million euros.

More than 400 dead in 96 hours

Because the clinics and homes will run out of electricity, for example to operate ventilators for a longer period of time, the analysis assumes around 300 deaths among the clinic and nursing patients and 140 “other” deaths.

But the consultants don't just paint a gloomy scenario.

They also make recommendations: These include the establishment of a hazard prevention center, the formation of crisis and administrative staffs, the development of logistics for the supply of fuel and the creation of a "special blackout protection plan" in coordination with the municipalities.

These are just the most urgent issues that the district has already faced.

The specialist service is also to be increased with additional staff: a total of nine new positions are planned, three of which are intended for civil protection.

When it comes to natural gas, the district has fewer chances of intervening itself than when it comes to electricity. According to Rossel, Mainova, Süwag and Eswe Supply will only be able to announce when and where the gas supply will be restricted with a short lead time.

There is no clear situation picture of what will happen.

"We cannot act, we can only react and maintain communication," confirms District Administrator Frank Kilian (independent).

Rationing or reducing energy at the beginning of the year must at least be taken into account, says Kilian.

According to Rossel, a "technical distinction" in the gas network between protected and non-protected customers will be difficult if not impossible.

If there were a gas stop, 60,000 of the 183,000 residents in the district would be directly affected.

Rossel says that cannot be compensated for.

The district will only be able to provide support “where the greatest need is”.