Late last month, a myth spread rapidly on Chinese social media.

This is the so-called 'Hanjin Theory' (旱震理論), which states that 'a great earthquake will come after a great drought'.

It was after the first great drought in over 60 years, centered in Sichuan Province.

This fear became a reality in less than ten days.

On the 5th, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province.

At the time when the Hanjin theory spread, the Chinese authorities and state-run media, which had started to evolve as there was no causal relationship between drought and earthquakes, were overshadowed.



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The largest earthquake since 2017 in Sichuan...

72 dead, 12 missing

At 12:52 p.m. on the 5th, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province, killing 72 people so far.

With 12 people still missing, the number of victims could rise further.

About 250 people were injured, 249 buildings including houses collapsed and 13,500 were damaged.

Seven hydroelectric power plants were also tentatively counted as damaged.

More than 50,000 people were affected, and communication and electricity in 40,000 households were cut off.

About 200 tourists are isolated in the touristic Hailuo District.

By the morning of the 7th, there were 13 aftershocks, and the fear of the residents did not go away.

China's state-run Global Times reported that it was the largest earthquake in Sichuan since the 7.0 magnitude earthquake in Jiuzhaigou in 2017.



Sichuan is the most earthquake-prone region in China.

Sichuan Province is located on the boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates, and it is believed that fault activity increases as these two tectonic plates collide.

Sichuan Province is also the site of the Great Wenchuan Earthquake that killed 86,000 people or went missing in 2008.

The Global Times, citing experts, said that the Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the Longmen Mountain fault zone, while the Luding earthquake occurred in the Shenshuihe fault zone, so there was no connection between the two earthquakes.

He added that the Senshuihe fault zone has an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.0 or greater every few decades.



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"Hanjin Theory proves once again" vs "There is no causal relationship between drought and earthquake"

The 'Hanjin Theory' was coined in 1972 by a man named Geng Ching-Guo, who served as the director of the Earthquake Prediction Prediction Center.

As the basis of the theory, 'the theory of the origin of geothermal heat' and the 'theory of the origin of the burial effect' were also proposed.



▶ “After a great drought, a great earthquake is coming”…



Despite the Chinese authorities' explanation that the Hanjin theory lacks scientific evidence, netizens are reacting that the Hanjin theory has been proven once again

.

On Weibo, China's largest social media, the hashtag #A major earthquake must come after a great drought # reappeared, 'I suggest looking at the Hanjin theory', 'Even if it's not necessarily true, it's worth a reference', 'At least the Tangshan earthquake and the Wenchuan earthquake were predicted with this theory.”



However, Chinese authorities still insist that there is no causal relationship between drought and earthquakes.

On Weibo, the hashtag #experts say this Sichuan earthquake is not related to drought is uploaded along with it.

The Hanjin theory is still only a hypothesis and has not been proven by scientific research.

Drought cannot be used as a basis for earthquake prediction.



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Chinese netizens have mixed reactions.

There are articles defending the government's announcement, such as 'this earthquake is related to fault zones rather than drought', 'earthquake is not related to extreme weather', etc. predicted that an earthquake would occur after a major drought a few days ago,' and 'the words of experts are for reference only.'

Although the earthquake itself cannot be prevented, the critical view is reflected that at least the damage could have been reduced if the earthquake had been predicted.


Chinese media "Earthquake rescue looks reminiscent of the Longjing of the Red Army"

Chinese authorities and state media are using the earthquake as an opportunity to escalate patriotism.

The state-run Global Times reported on the 7th that "a video of Special Task Forces installing a rope bridge over a torrent and then rescuing residents on a rope with their bare hands has spread widely on Weibo."

He also wrote that this video is reminiscent of the 'long march' of the Hong army from 1934 to 1936.

The Long March refers to the march of the Chinese Communist Party, the Red Army, who walked 12,000 km through the siege of the Kuomintang Army.

The Global Times wrote, 'At that time, the Red Army finally occupied the bridge occupied by the Kuomintang Army, hanging from the iron ropes of the plankless Luding Bridge, even in the midst of fierce machine gun fire by the Kuomintang Army.

Luding Bridge is a bridge in Luding County, Sichuan Province, where an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 occurred.

“Whether it was 80 years ago or in the future, the Chinese military and police can overcome difficulties,” he wrote.



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In a commentary, the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, delivered President Xi Jinping's instructions that "saving lives should be our top priority."

"Disaster situations are orders and time is life," he said.

On the 16th of next month, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), which will decide whether or not President Xi Jinping will be re-elected for a third term, will open.

It is read as evidence that people are concerned that a natural disaster might worsen public sentiment ahead of President Xi's 'Coronation'.