Politicians see it as the gradual end to the isolation of the "Democrats" in the country

Prospects for the far-right to advance in the Swedish legislative elections

  • Anderson meets with her constituents.

    AFP

  • Moderates leader Ulf Christerson.

    AFP

  • Outgoing Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson.

    AFP

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Swedes are voting (Sunday) in a legislative election, in which the competition appears fierce, with the right ready for the first time to govern with the support of the "extreme right", which is making more progress than ever before, and the "left" seeking a third term.

The anti-immigration nationalist Sweden Democrats, long a political pariah in the Scandinavian country, is tipping the scales with a possible deal with the "traditional right", with opinion polls showing it is on course for a second place in the election results.

Elections in a minute

Sweden, which is undergoing the delicate process of joining NATO, and will take over the rotating presidency of the European Union on January 1, has been since 2014 under the Social Democrats, the largest party in the country since the 1930s.

Outgoing Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson, who took office a year ago to revive her party, has the highest level of voter confidence to stay in office, with 55% of positive opinions.

She is largely behind her rival from the "Moderates" party, Ulf Christerson (32%).

But the campaign was dominated by themes favorable to the right-wing opposition: crime, bloody gang-settlement, integration problems, and high electricity and energy bills.

Much speculation remains about the outcome of the election, as the two likely new coalitions (Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party and Center Party on the left, in competition with the right, represented by the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and Sweden Democrats) converge in the opinion polls.

According to the latest opinion polls (Monday), the left coalition may get between 48.6 and 52.6%, compared to 47.1 and 49.6% for the extreme right/right, but the numbers fluctuate.

The previous elections in 2018 led to a prolonged political crisis, as it took four months to form a minority government led by the Social Democrats.

Major issues remain unresolved, but the rapprochement between the right and the extreme right contributed to clarifying the political situation and returned Sweden to two blocs.

tectonic movement

“This time, we can say that one of the two groups will achieve a majority,” says Jan Turiel, a professor of political science at Stockholm University.

It is impossible to predict either of them, but one of them will get the majority.”

Anders Lindberg, editorial writer for Aftonbladet asserted that the gradual end of the isolation of the Sweden Democrats, and the emergence of the party as the first potential organization for an alliance with the right, "consists of a major change in Swedish society."

The party, the heir of a neo-Nazi group when it was formed at the end of the 1980s, was at 1% less than 20 years ago, and did not enter parliament until 2010. With an anti-immigration rhetoric attached to the defense of the state-patron, it managed to win the trust of the working classes, pensioners and the skilled. Limited numbers, especially among men, taking advantage of the arrival of large numbers of immigrants to the country (500,000 immigrants 10 years ago, or about 5% of the population).

"Crime and immigration are at the fore," Lindberg said, "while if we look through history, Swedish elections have always been about the welfare state, the economy and jobs, it's a tectonic movement."

Magdalena Andersson, Sweden's first female prime minister, came to power in November 2021, succeeding Stefan Lofven.

During his 10 months in power, the former finance minister and swimming champion managed to win the trust of the people.

While the country's accession to NATO has so far been a red line, it managed to convince its camp that the Russian-Ukrainian war justified accelerating Sweden's candidacy, which had been free of military alliances for two centuries.

Terrible failure

"A lot of people trust her as prime minister, including those who wouldn't think of voting for the 'Social Democrats'," says Jan Turiel.

After six years of hardening her party on immigration, she has toughened her tone on integration, acknowledging a "failure" in many neighbourhoods.

According to the latest opinion polls, the "Social Democrats" received between 28.5 and 30 percent, compared to the historical lowest rate of 28.3% in 2018. They are ahead of the "Sweden Democrats" (18.8% to 19.8%) and the "moderates" (17.6%). to 18.1%).

If he can still target the position of prime minister if the Right Union wins, an alliance with the "extreme right" would be bad news for the leader of the "moderates" Ulf Christerson.

He may have to give up a lot of weight in favor of the "Sweden Democrats", or even see them push into government, political experts say.

Outgoing Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson enjoys the highest level of voter confidence.

Sweden has been under the Social Democrats since 2014, the largest party in the country since the 1930s.

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