In recent weeks there have been several large explosions in Crimea, causing devastating damage.

Among other things, the Saki military airport and an ammunition depot of the Russian armed forces near Dschankoj were affected.

Other explosions took place near the Belbek military airport near Sevastopol and not far from Kerch, where the Moscow-built bridge connects mainland Russia with Crimea.

In several cases, drones were also used in the attacks.

Markus Wehner

Political correspondent in Berlin.

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According to US and European intelligence agencies, these attacks are the work of an elite Ukrainian unit operating behind the lines.

The Russian Defense Ministry has also admitted that at least some of the incidents involved "sabotage".

Among other things, large stocks of ammunition stored in the open air by the Russian armed forces were destroyed.

The fact that a sabotage unit from Ukraine can strike Crimea is a disaster for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Nobody on the Russian side had expected that it could happen, it was even ruled out.

After all, from the Russian point of view, the annexed peninsula is an integral part of their own territory and therefore unassailable.

Thousands of Russian tourists vacationed in Crimea this year, many fleeing after the explosions.

The attacks caused great unrest in the Russian military, which felt compelled to take countermeasures.

If the enemy can strike in Crimea, where else will they do it?

The highest warning level was declared on the Russian military bases - up to the far north of the country.

Putin: keep the population out of the war

For the Ukrainians, the peninsula is still their (albeit occupied) state territory, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has now reaffirmed that it too should be reconquered.

Particularly bad for the Russian side: The attacks in Crimea destroyed the image spread internally of a special operation that is taking place only in Ukraine, but which does not affect Russian territory and its inhabitants.

But if the Russians fail to guarantee calm in Crimea, what about the "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia would like to add to its territory, and the Russian-occupied territories where it wants to set up his state order?

The acts of sabotage in Crimea would have given Putin the opportunity to further escalate the war, to respond with a major military response.

He would have had an excuse to do so.

But Putin didn't do it.

A plausible reason for this is that he is sticking to the narrative of a special operation, as planned by the FSB secret service.

The Russian population should support the war, but at the same time they should be kept out of it.

This applies particularly to European Russia on this side of the Urals, and even more so to the capitals of Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

This is also the reason why Putin does not want a general mobilization that would affect all men.

This does not mean that the mood in the Russian army is stable.

On the contrary, morale is considered bad.

The soldiers probably know the real situation, not least the high number of casualties, which is probably around 20,000.

According to official figures, almost 14,500 Russian soldiers were killed in the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, which lasted almost ten years from 1979 to 1989.

Russia achieved this death toll in Ukraine in half a year.

Many small actions keep hope alive

In eastern Ukraine, too, Russia is not progressing as quickly as planned.

Donetsk and Luhansk should have been taken long ago, and Russian forces should have advanced far to the south.

But the Ukrainian army stopped the offensive in Donbass.

Added to this are the notable successes of the Ukrainian troops in the area around Cherson, which have not been resounding so far.

The authorities of the Russian occupation in the region announced on Monday that they are temporarily halting their plans for a referendum on belonging to Russia.

The Ukrainian armed forces are able to keep the Russian army occupied, depriving it of its freedom of action.

Together with the actions in Crimea, it can be stated that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has long since begun, even if it consists of many small actions.

These small victories are important for Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian leadership.

They make an optimistic outlook possible and keep the population's hopes of a great victory alive.

In view of the successes of the hybrid counter-offensive, Kyiv even sees the possibility of regaining territory.

The Ukrainian leadership is therefore currently not interested in negotiations.

The same goes for the Russians.

Putin will first try to maintain what has been achieved so far.

An escalation of warfare, which the Russian military wants, is apparently not in the offing, the war of attrition continues.

The Russian leadership is only planning for the next few months.

She hopes for the winter: that the high energy prices will wear down the EU states, that the elections in Italy will produce a right-wing populist government, that the protests from the far right and far left will increase with the active support of Moscow and that the mood will change, that the West tired and divided.