The counter-offensive by the Ukrainian forces is real, but it will not be quick

"The

."

wrote it a week ago

, immediately taken up by the state agencies Interfax, Tass and Ria Novosti.

From there, the launch, accompanied by estimates of hundreds or thousands of casualties in the Kiev army, ricocheted with quick copy and paste across the entire Russian propaganda network in the West.

These days, anyone who has browsed the Facebook pages of the major Italian news outlets, found the launch repeated countless times in the comments to each post on the conflict in Ukraine, presented as an incontrovertible reality in denial of Western fake news.

Seven days later, there is no concrete evidence to support this alleged defeat, while many sources, including Russian ones, report a

.

The latest report from

, the US think tank which, thanks to documented daily analyzes on open sources, has become the main point of reference for monitoring the progress of the conflict, reports "verifiable progress" on at least two guidelines in the Kherson region.

One is from the north: the photo on this page of a

on top of a building was geolocated by multiple analysts in

, just south of the border between the Dnipro and Kheson regions.

Russian military bloggers also confirm Moscow's withdrawal from this location.

Further south-west, both the maps drawn by Western analysts and some of Russian provenance show a Ukrainian wedge of

in the territory controlled by Moscow, or as they say in military jargon, a

.

It is very short to reach the

one of the most important arteries in the region.

Taking control

, already compromised by the numerous attacks in recent weeks on the bridges over the Dnipro River.

For several weeks, Ukrainian artillery, mainly thanks to US-supplied

multiple rocket launchers , has hit military infrastructure and bases

Every day, even today, photographic and video testimonies of these attacks appear online.

The strategy seems to bear some fruit: the mercenaries of the Wagner group, in these days, would be complaining of not receiving enough ammunition or sufficient support from the aviation.

"It will take as long as necessary"

It is not the chronicle of a triumphal advance

, such as those seen in the Middle Eastern wars of the past two decades.

Moscow continues to have far greater firepower than its defenders, whether we are talking about ground artillery or air force.

"

Andriy Zagorodnyuk

, a former Ukrainian defense minister now head of

the Kiev think tank

, told the

The analyzes recently published by the Anglo-Saxon press foreshadow a long time, even beyond winter.

“Ukrainian officials say the offensive on the southern front is proceeding slowly, but they also say that

,” writes the

the success of the operation can take many forms, as Western analysts confirm.

Even without quickly regaining much ground, Kiev can achieve progress by forcing Russia to reveal the position of its units and bases, get on the defensive, give signs of weakness.

Kiev claims

, but the military aims to weaken Russian forces by striking command posts and ammunition depots behind enemy lines.

Kherson is located on the west bank of the Dnipro River, which Russian troops must cross to enter, resupply or leave the city.

The Ukrainian military says its attacks on bridges across the Dnipro and the smaller Inhulets River northeast of the city have largely

to Russian forces in the city.

, with Ukraine claiming to have damaged the river bridges enough to prevent heavy vehicles from crossing.

The

hosted an analysis significantly titled "

" by

, professor emeritus of King's College London, considered the dean of British strategic studies.

“There is a lot of ground to cover - writes Freedman - the front is about 350 km long, from

, where Russia still plays a dangerous game around a nuclear power plant, the most prized target, the occupied city of Kherson.

Although Ukraine has achieved a more favorable balance of force and may have equated the Russians in the south, a superior force is generally considered necessary to have an irresistible force that can penetrate Russian lines.

Moscow is resorting to desperate measures to have more men on the front lines, and

.

But

.

Ukraine has an advantage in

although in many areas it is still small. "

Russia, according to Freedman,

in the conquest of

or

, based on intense artillery barrages to weaken the defenders, consequently destroying the urban centers.

Kiev does not want to fight street by street in Kherson, reducing it to rubble.

"This campaign is not simply aimed at regaining the territory, but

," writes Freedman, while the Kremlin plans to inflict high losses on Kiev and erode the support of Western chancelleries. .

However, “in this

one key difference remains: while the Ukrainians are fighting to survive as an independent state, the Russians are struggling to maintain hostile territory.

Only they have the possibility of abandoning the war and returning home ”.

In this perspective, a variable as important as it is difficult to assess is the

, and consequently for how long Moscow can continue its "special operation" with this intensity.

wrote

on Wednesday that “

For Russia, six months of war have led not only to colossal and irreplaceable manpower losses, but also to a huge waste of weapons and military equipment: guided missiles are already very scarce, artillery shells and armored vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year and the state of military aviation precludes a full-scale air campaign.

Due to the sanctions, Russia cannot continue the full industrial production of arms and replenish its arms stocks, which are rapidly running out ”.

If these estimates turn out to be correct, after the harsh winter months,

And the Donbass?

From April to June, Moscow

, eventually completing or nearing the conquest of the Donetsk region.

A similar scenario was expected in the

region , with the capture of cities like

and

, but so far it has not happened, despite

these and other centers hard.

Over the past two months, the front line has seen minimal, almost insignificant changes.

The latest British intelligence update quantifies Russian advances in the order of

It is too early to be certain, but there are early signs that something could change.

The

website published a report on Thursday by

, who managed to interview Ukrainian soldiers fighting on this front, and gave an account of a

.

The latest news may indicate that this is beginning to happen: the

has verified that Ukrainian forces have crossed the

and recaptured

, a small town about 20 km east of Sloviansk.

We will have to wait a few days to understand if it is an isolated episode or the beginning of a trend reversal in this area as well.