After GDP overwhelms the UK, India is hotly discussing "catching up with Germany and surpassing Japan", Indian officials: India will be the second largest in 2047

　　[Global Times correspondent in Pakistan Cheng Shijie Global Times correspondent Hu Popo] The latest report released by the State Bank of India (SBI) on the 3rd shows that according to the current economic growth rate, India will become the world's third largest economy by 2029.

The report predicts that India's gross domestic product (GDP) will surpass Germany's in 2027 and is likely to surpass Japan's in 2029, achieving its goal of entering the "top three in the world".

And just last Friday, Bloomberg reported that according to the GDP statistics released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Indian economy surpassed the United Kingdom in the last quarter of 2021 and continued to expand its lead in the first quarter of this year, and has now become the It is the fifth largest economy in the world after the United States, China, Japan and Germany.

This news excited Indian public opinion. For a time, entrepreneurs and politicians posted on social media "singing" India's economic achievements.

However, some economists said that it remains to be seen whether the high growth of the Indian economy can continue.

Rush from fifth to third?

　　After a correction, India's nominal GDP in the first three months of 2022 was $854.7 billion, compared with $816 billion for the UK in the same period, according to the IMF.

In addition, UK GDP will shrink by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2022, which will further widen the gap between the two sides.

Meanwhile, the pound has fallen 8% against the Indian rupee this year.

The IMF predicts that India's GDP in 2022 will continue to overwhelm the UK.

If India can maintain its current momentum, by 2027, its economy will be about 20% larger than that of the UK.

　　The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department believes that India has adopted a successful economic development strategy since 2014 and is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy by 2029.

Arvind Vermani, a former chief economic adviser to the Indian government, also supports this analysis.

He said that by 2030, India will become the third largest economy after the United States and China.

excited tone

　　Many Indian entrepreneurs, politicians, and media are delighted that India's GDP surpasses that of the United Kingdom.

A large part of the reason is that Britain was the suzerainty of India.

Anand Mahindra, chairman of India's Mahindra Automobile Group, made no secret of it on social media: "Cause and cause are not happy! This news will make every Indian who works hard to feel gratified."

　　The official Twitter of the Bharatiya Janata Party tweeted on the 3rd, "The Modi government's changes have enabled India to achieve its goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy. Overtaking the UK to become the world's fifth largest economy, India's economic growth is a shining example! "Indian Finance Minister Sitharaman was heartened by this statistic.

She said that India is the fastest growing economy in the world, India's economic growth rate will remain in double digits, and the possibility of India's recession is zero.

The Office of the Minister of Finance also posted on social media for the first time, saying, "Ten years ago, India ranked only 11th in the global economy, and now it has become the fifth place after the United States, China, Japan and Germany. A big economy." Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar praised India's "great social transformation" and said "India is ready for a 7% to 8% growth and recovery."

Subramaniam, an official at the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, believes that according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision, by 2047, India will become the world's second largest economy.

He said, "It is hard to imagine how far our economy will develop in 2047 because it changes very fast. India's economy used to account for 25% of the world's economy. As India's economy grows, we will regain that position."

Can India do it?

　　However, Shahi Tharoor, the leader of the Indian Congress Party, believes that India should not be carried away by the current "economic achievements".

He said, "I am cautiously optimistic about (statistical results) because India is still a country with an extremely large population base. We need to benefit more people from the economic dividends brought by GDP growth." "The Hindu" He said that at present, India's per capita GDP is still low, the growth rate of the manufacturing industry has slowed down, and there is also a large trade deficit.

From these detailed data, we can still see the hidden worries of India's economic development.

Economists are also concerned about whether sustained high growth can be achieved.

Bibeck de Broy, chairman of the Indian Prime Minister's Council of Economic Advisers, said that while a growth rate of 7% to 7.5% does not seem too high, historical data shows that maintaining such a growth rate for a long time is a difficult task.

Only once in the past 30 years has India recorded five consecutive years of GDP growth above 7%.

　　A previous commentary published by Al Jazeera believed that as the pressure of the epidemic in India has eased, agriculture and manufacturing have performed well, and the Indian economy has grown rapidly, but there are still hidden worries behind it.

The report believes that due to the low statistical base due to the long-term slowdown of the Indian economy, it is not surprising that the growth rate has jumped sharply. Whether the subsequent growth rate can continue this trend remains to be seen.

　　U.S. ratings agency Moody's also recently lowered its growth forecast for India's economy.

The company believes that India's GDP growth will slow to 7.7% in 2022 from 8.3% in 2021, and will slip further to 5.2% in 2023.

Some economists believe that rising interest rates and a slowdown in the global economy will have a negative impact on domestic economic activity in India.