Will Mount Fuji erupt again?
In fact, the Japanese have no idea.
As we all know, Japan is a country with many earthquakes and volcanic activity.
Since this century alone, many volcanic eruptions have occurred across Japan: in 2000, Mount Usu in Hokkaido erupted, causing 10,000 nearby residents to evacuate their homes; All residents took refuge in the outlying islands; in 2014, Mt. Gogoku erupted at the junction of Nagano and Gifu prefectures, killing or missing 63 tourists on the top of the mountain; in 2015, Kagoshima Prefecture’s Kouerabujima volcano erupted, and the same It was all the residents of the island who went out to evacuate; in 2018, the Kusatsu Shirane Mountain in Gunma Prefecture erupted, killing one member of the Self-Defense Forces and injuring 11 residents.
Statistics show that there are currently about 1,500 active volcanoes in the world, of which more than 7% are concentrated in Japan.
Japan's land area only accounts for 0.25% of the world's total.
That is to say, the proportion of active volcanoes in Japan is 28 times the global average.
Including uninhabited islands and underwater volcanoes, Japan has as many as 110 active volcanoes.
Some of these volcanoes are alarmingly active. For example, the Sakurajima volcano, which erupted on July 24 this year, erupted 10,000 times from 1955 to 2011 alone!
The severity of volcanic eruptions often varies from place to place.
Sometimes, its eruption will be very violent, and the erupting magma rushes out with a high temperature of thousands of degrees, and it is also mixed with volcanic ash and a lot of water vapor.
Wherever the lava goes, everything turns to ashes.
The catastrophic effects of even a mild eruption cannot be underestimated.
For example, volcanic ash will travel far away, causing serious harm to human life, health, economy and society.
For example, the core of this discussion - Mount Fuji.
Mount Fuji is the highest mountain in Japan.
In the eyes of the Japanese, Mount Fuji has an unusual meaning, and it is not even an exaggeration to call it "holy mountain".
In 2013, Mount Fuji "got its wish" and was listed as a World Natural Heritage.
In the past, Mount Fuji was considered a "dormant volcano".
However, according to related concepts, all volcanoes that have erupted within 10,000 years are "active volcanoes", and the last eruption of Mount Fuji was in 1707, just over 300 years ago, which is obviously not careless.
For a mountain range that has been formed for hundreds of millions of years, more than 300 years is just a blink of an eye, so it is not unfounded to include Mount Fuji in the "active period".
In the past 3,200 years, Mount Fuji has erupted about 100 times, roughly every 30 years, but it is a bit abnormal that it has not erupted for more than 300 years.
Of particular concern to experts is the 2011 earthquake in northeastern Japan.
Although more than 10 years have passed, the seismic activity of the Japanese archipelago has not only not leveled off, but has also shown signs of increasing activity, which will undoubtedly push various active volcanoes including Mount Fuji into an active period.
Some observers said that the snow cover on Mount Fuji has been decreasing year by year, and water is pouring out from time to time, these are bad signs that cannot be ignored.
What would happen if Mount Fuji really erupted?
You know, Mount Fuji is just over 100 kilometers from Tokyo.
After that eruption in 1707, ash was several centimeters thick on the streets of Tokyo (then called Edo).
According to Japanese volcano experts, if there is another eruption of similar intensity to Mount Fuji, the amount of volcanic ash will reach 490 million cubic meters, which is 10 times the solid waste formed by the "3.11" earthquake in Japan in 2011.
Three hours after the eruption, electric trains in Tokyo and Yokohama would be unable to run due to ash on the tracks and roads had to be closed.
The disruption to traffic will prevent vehicles transporting daily necessities and food from being able to deliver to supermarkets, and the lives of Tokyo's citizens will face a severe test.
Airports are also unable to take off and land flights due to too much volcanic ash on the runways.
A large amount of volcanic ash may overwhelm power lines and cause widespread power outages.
Tap water is also unusable because too much volcanic ash is mixed in.
Likewise, communication networks can be disrupted by volcanic ash that fills antennas.
What is even more frightening is that many houses in Japan are wooden structures with limited load-bearing capacity, and are likely to collapse under the gravity of volcanic ash.
The above calculations are only economic accounts, and the more precious and unquantifiable accounts such as health and life cannot be calculated at all.
Like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions have certain warnings, but they are difficult to predict.
With the current technical means, at best, forecasts can be made several days or even hours in advance, and the accuracy is worrying.
It is almost an impossible task to organize a large number of residents to evacuate during the golden rescue time after the eruption.
Therefore, only early preparation is the only option.
In order to minimize the damage caused by volcanic eruptions, Japan has set up a national joint volcanic eruption forecasting committee, which implements 24-hour all-weather observation of 47 of the 110 active volcanoes, and Mount Fuji is of course the key monitoring object.
In April 2020, the Japan Central Disaster Prevention Conference formulated relevant countermeasures in response to the possibility of Mount Fuji eruption, called on all departments to make prevention plans, and allocated funds to purchase disaster prevention materials.
Yamanashi, Shizuoka, and Kanagawa prefectures, where Mount Fuji is located, have carried out disaster prevention training. Kanagawa Prefecture also purchased new generators and excavators to cope with the massive volcanic ash and possible power outages after the eruption.
In June this year, the Japanese National Police Agency took further preventive measures, including purchasing a large number of dust masks and goggles to distribute to local police.
It should be said that whether Mount Fuji will erupt is beyond human control, but whether it has the ability to reduce the losses caused by the eruption is a test of human wisdom.
Chen Hongbin