When it comes to the energy transition, many people think of wind turbines and solar roofs.

The power of the wind and the sun is said to bring light when it is dark and warmth when it is cold.

It costs little and protects the environment.

So far the dream.

Morten Freidel

Editor in the politics of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper

  • Follow I follow

In order for it to come true, Germany used to need gas, billions of cubic meters every year.

Gas-fired power plants should step in when there is a calm and the sky is cloudy, or when a lot of electricity is being used.

Just a few months ago, experts were demanding that Germany should build ten times as many gas-fired power plants in the next few years as it has so far, with an output that corresponds to that of around 16 nuclear power plants.

For a long time, gas was the real winner of the energy transition.

It should be the bridge that Germany takes to the renewable future.

Then Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off supplies.

Since then the bridge has collapsed.

The federal government reacted by announcing that it would push ahead with the expansion of wind turbines and solar cells even more ambitiously than it already did.

So she decided to start marching without a bridge, straight through the valley.

Whether you find this wise depends on how steep you think the slope on the other side is.

Some engineers consider it too steep.

It starts with the goals.

The traffic light wants to build many more wind turbines on land than before, especially from 2025. Michael Beckmann, Professor of Energy Process Engineering at the Technical University of Dresden, has calculated what that means: In order to achieve its goal, the government would have to do four every day Set up wind turbines in Germany for the next ten years.

And that's already counted in their favour, because there are only four if they erect wind turbines of the latest generation, which have a particularly high output but are also particularly large.

If the federal government were to build smaller rotors, it would have to be about eight every day, day after day, for ten years.

How, asks Beckmann, is that supposed to work?

Where should the craftsmen come from, where should the materials,

that are in short supply around the world at the moment?

Rare earths are also found in wind turbines.

Not to mention the political resistance.

Citizens are already complaining about wind turbines in their vicinity, some districts no longer want to build them, and countries like Bavaria are lagging behind, also because the rotors are rather unpopular with Bavarians who love the landscape.

Even with radically simplified approvals, construction shouldn't stop anywhere for the traffic light to work.

Beckmann considers this to be "unrealistic, not to say impossible".

because the rotors are rather unpopular with the landscape-loving Bavarians.

Even with radically simplified approvals, construction shouldn't stop anywhere for the traffic light to work.

Beckmann considers this to be "unrealistic, not to say impossible".

because the rotors are rather unpopular with the landscape-loving Bavarians.

Even with radically simplified approvals, construction shouldn't stop anywhere for the traffic light to work.

Beckmann considers this to be "unrealistic, not to say impossible".

How much energy the wind turbines deliver is uncertain

Added to this are the costs, which not only Beckmann thinks would be exorbitant.

They are also likely to increase every year, because politicians assume that wind turbines will suddenly become more expensive as soon as they are built in large numbers.

It has to do with the tenders.

Companies that build wind turbines apply when an area is designated for construction somewhere.

Whoever submits the lowest bid wins the contract.

However, it is already the case that there are too few offers for the advertised areas, and companies simply cannot keep up.

If a lot more land is now released for construction, then there will hardly be any offers.

Anyone who submits one can then ask for almost any price, because they know: they will be awarded the contract anyway.

Beckmann believes it could cost as much as $20 billion each year

to build the wind turbines, including the connections, alone on land.

But the federal government also wants to build huge wind farms at sea, as well as solar systems.

She has even more ambitious goals there than with the wind.

"These are costs that can almost be compared to those of German unity."