After more than 6 months of war, the conflict in Ukraine appears to be far from resolved, and Moscow and Kiev seem determined to continue fighting to an unknown extent.
So, how will the conflict that turned into a war of attrition end?
What are the possible scenarios for its end?
To answer these questions, we review what was mentioned in an analytical article published by the American magazine National Interest under the title "How will the Russian-Ukrainian war of attrition end?"
It sheds light on the reality of the war and tries to anticipate its consequences.
In his article in the magazine, Mark Katz, a professor of political science at American George Mason University, points out that the war did not go according to the calculations of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expected when the invasion of Ukraine began last February that his military campaign would lead to the surrender or a quick fall of the president's government. Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky.
But the fierce resistance with which the Ukrainians met the Russian “invasion” and the generous arms supplies that rained down on Kyiv from Western countries - especially from the United States - prevented the achievement of what Putin aspired to, and after 6 months of fighting, Katz sees that the conflict has turned into a war of attrition. .
The writer says that despite Zelensky's admission that Russian forces occupy about 20% of Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainian forces backed by the West may be able to prevent the Russians from making further progress, but Kyiv most likely does not have the ability to expel Putin's forces outside its borders.
Despite all of the above, the author of the article says that it does not seem that either side is ready for a ceasefire, which means that the war may continue for more months and perhaps years.
Scenarios
The National Interest article reviews several possible scenarios for the end of the conflict in Ukraine, which, in his opinion, has turned into a war of attrition that may be protracted.
Among those scenarios is that one of the parties to the conflict could achieve a military victory, as if Russia could - despite the difficulties it is facing now - change the course of the war and achieve its main goal of overthrowing the Zelensky government or forcing it to surrender.
Or that Western-backed Ukrainian forces can somehow push Russian forces out of most, if not all, of the territory they have captured.
But the writer reminds us that wars may not necessarily end with one of its parties being able to inflict a military defeat on its opponent;
Wars of attrition may end in other ways;
Including the internal collapse of one of the parties to the conflict due to the requirements of the war, as happened in Germany at the end of the First World War.
The continuation of the fighting for years without one of the opponents being able to win the battle in his favor may push the parties to the conflict to accept a ceasefire and sit at the negotiating table because of the high costs of the war, as happened in the Iran-Iraq war that lasted for years from 1980 to 1988.
The writer believes that there are factors that may decide the outcome of the war in favor of one of the parties, including the continued flow of Western weapons to Kyiv, which will enable the Ukrainians to continue the war, or force them to surrender if it stops.
In return, Putin needs continued Russian public support for his war to be able to continue the fight.
The article also points to a possible role for the US elections in the course of the war, as it believes that if Putin is able to continue fighting until 2024, and former US President Donald Trump is nominated and wins the elections, this will mean the end of American support for Kiev, which helps Moscow achieve Its objectives are in Ukraine.
The American academic concludes in his article that if neither Russia nor Ukraine - as is now likely - can achieve a military victory in the near future;
The war will continue until either side collapses or both give up trying to defeat their opponent.