International relations theories for decades have provided reasons for optimism, suggesting that major powers can maintain cooperative relationships and resolve their differences without engaging in armed conflict.
But the thousands of new college students starting classes around the world this week will learn that basic theories of international relations warn of a coming conflict between great powers.
This is what author and academic Matthew Kronig, a professor at Georgetown University in the United States, sees in an article in the Foreign Policy magazine, in which he sheds light on the fierce competition between superpowers and the transformations that the world is witnessing, signaling the change of the unipolar global order that followed the Cold War.
According to the author, realist international relations theories focus on the balance of power, and have maintained for decades that the bipolar world order that prevailed during the Cold War and the unipolar world order represented by American hegemony and prevalent since the end of the Cold War were relatively simple and not prone to accidental wars caused by miscalculation.
These theories also assert that nuclear weapons have raised the cost of conflict and made the possibility of wars between great powers unimaginable.
In addition to other factors, including international institutions and agreements - such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and others - that were established after World War II and whose credibility was enhanced and expanded after the end of the Cold War, and provided ways for the major powers to resolve their differences peacefully.
Unfortunately, almost all of these means and guarantees now seem to be collapsing before our eyes, as the main driving forces of international politics indicate, according to international relations theories, that the new Cold War between the United States, China and Russia is likely not to be a peaceful conflict.
With regard to the balance of power, the American academic - who also serves as deputy director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategies and Security of the Atlantic Council - points out that the world is now witnessing a shift towards a multipolar system.
Although the United States remains the world's dominant power by almost every objective measure, China has risen to second only in military and economic power.
As for Europe, it is also an economic and organizational superpower, while Russia maintains the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons on earth.
The major powers in the developing world - such as India, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil - are committed to the path of non-alignment in the conflicts of the great powers, according to the author's article.
The writer believes that multipolar global systems are characterized by instability and remain vulnerable to the possibility of unintended wars as a result of miscalculation, pointing to the First World War as the most prominent example of this.
He also believes that this instability is due to a number of reasons, including that each country finds itself worried about many potential enemies.
An example is given by the United States, where the US Department of Defense is concerned about possible simultaneous conflicts with both Russia in Europe and China in the Indo-Pacific region.
In addition to a possible conflict with Iran, where US President Joe Biden once stated that “the use of military force is still an option on the table as a last resort to deal with the Iranian nuclear program,” and based on the above, the possibility of the United States entering a war on 3 fronts is a matter not impossible.
The article notes that the main conflict in the world order today is as expressed by Biden when he said that "the battle is between democracy and tyranny."
The writer cautions that the division or separation between democracy and tyranny in international politics is not limited to the style of governance only, but is related to ways of life.
This is a fact reflected in the speeches and writings of Chinese Presidents Xi Jinping and Russian Vladimir Putin, who often talk at length about their ideological ideas about the superiority of authoritarian regimes and the bankruptcy of the democratic approach.
The writer concludes that the world has now returned to an era similar to the twentieth century, in which ideologies clash, and the competition between democratic and authoritarian regimes to prove which of them can best serve their people, which adds a more dangerous ideological element to the current conflict according to the article.