Eleven years after the Fukushima disaster, which had put a serious brake on nuclear power, this energy is seeing the tide turn, and industrialists and pro-atom politicians are not hiding their optimism.

Eminently symbolic: the intention of Japan itself to eventually launch the construction of new power stations.

The government announced on Wednesday a reflection on future "new generation reactors, equipped with new safety mechanisms", in the name of carbon neutrality but also in the face of soaring electricity and gas prices, which are affecting the archipelago. since the war in Ukraine.

In the immediate future, Tokyo plans to restart certain sites and extend their lifespan, a hairpin turn for a country which last year drew less than 4% of its electricity from nuclear - against 30% before 2011, then produced by 54 reactors.

The project benefits from a more favorable context, while public opinion is worried about shortages and measures its dependence on imports of gas, oil and coal.

Other countries on the path to disengagement have turned around, such as Belgium, which wants to extend two reactors for ten years.

In Germany, which was to close the last three at the end of 2022, a taboo was broken when the Minister for the Climate, the environmentalist Robert Habeck, judged in February that the question of a postponement could be "relevant" in the context of war in Ukraine.

To decide, Berlin is waiting for new expertise of its electrical system with regard to winter needs.

"Prolonging nuclear power is not a solution to the energy crisis", objects Gerald Neubauer, energy expert for Greenpeace Germany, who argues that it is of limited effectiveness in replacing Russian gas: "gas is mainly used for heating, not electricity".

Climate argument

But for Nicolas Berghmans, expert at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), "extending power plants can help".

"Europe is in a very difficult energy situation, with several overlapping crises: the problem of Russian gas supply, the drought which has reduced the capacity of the dams, the low availability of the French nuclear fleet... so all levers matter".

The sector had already regained momentum with the climate argument, as nuclear energy does not directly emit CO2.

The atom has thus increased its share in many scenarios of the IPCC, the UN climate experts.

As a boom in electrification is announced, in transport, industry or construction, several countries have announced their desire to develop their nuclear infrastructures: first China, which already has the largest number of reactors, Poland, the Czech Republic or India, which want to reduce their dependence on coal.

France, Great Britain and even the Netherlands have expressed their ambitions, and even in the United States Joe Biden's investment plan encourages the sector.

While nuclear power, present in 32 countries, provides 10% of global electricity production, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raised its projections in September 2021, for the first time since Fukushima: it now foresees a doubling of installed capacity by 2050 in the most favorable scenario.

However, IPCC scientists recognize that "the future deployment of nuclear power may be constrained by societal preferences": the subject divides opinion, because of the risk of catastrophic accidents or the still unresolved problem of waste.

Countries, such as New Zealand, remain opposed to it, and this dividing line was also expressed in Brussels in the debate on its inclusion or not in the list of "green" activities.

There is also the question of the capacity to build new reactors at controlled costs and within controlled deadlines.

"Construction times are long", underlines Nicolas Berghmans: "we are talking about medium-term solutions, which will not resolve the issue of tensions on the markets", just as they will arrive too late, after 2035, to resolve the climate issue, which can on the other hand immediately benefit from the "industrial dynamics" of renewable energies.

© 2022 AFP