Military confrontations between the Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray Liberation Front continued for the fourth consecutive day, ending a 5-month truce and opening a new chapter in the conflict.

The battles between the two sides renewed in northern Ethiopia with the intensification of air raids and hit-and-run on the ground fronts, and "indifference" to UN calls for an "immediate cessation of hostilities".

On Thursday, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres renewed his call to the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Liberation Front for an immediate cessation of hostilities and to create conditions for the resumption of an effective political dialogue.

In this regard, the researcher and specialist in African affairs, Abdel Qader Muhammad Ali, attributed the reasons for the renewed battles to the blockage of the negotiating horizon, referring to what he described as the inability of African mediation.

He explained the aspects of this inability by what he considered Africa's weakness "in applying parallel and balanced pressures on the two parties with a deep lack of trust between them, which prevents the formation of a ground to build on, in addition to the great divergence in demands."

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Muhammad Ali explained that the Tigray Front is demanding the restoration of the western region, while the government is afraid of this demand for fear of opening a logistical supply channel for the front from Sudan.


complex struggle

The new confrontations come at a time when the Ethiopian street and the international community were awaiting a round of negotiations between the two sides of the conflict within the efforts of the African Union envoy, but everyone was surprised by the outbreak of war again.

In this context, the Sudanese researcher in African affairs, Abbas Mohamed Salih, stressed that the renewed confrontations were caused by the lack of trust between the parties and their erosion, which hastened the collapse of the truce sponsored by the African mediator.

Saleh added to Al Jazeera Net that the collapse of the truce is also due to the divergence of positions and the agenda of the parties on many issues and the adherence of each party to preconditions.

Abbas considered that the conflict is complex and more complex local and regional dynamics are intertwined, and thus requires a strong and effective mediation mechanism capable of exercising its influence with an understanding that matches the sensitivity of the positions of all parties at every stage, which is what the African mediation team lacked, according to him.

Field Developments

On the ground, the battles expanded to the Afar region in the Yalu region in the north of the country, where heavy weapons were used, and resulted in the death of a family of 7 people and dozens of wounded, according to sources who also confirmed that the Tigray Front penetrated into some areas in the Amhara region and in some mountainous areas.

The Tigray Front said that raids were launched on a residential area, killing and wounding civilians, including children. A spokesman for the Tigray Front condemned those raids, and called on the international community to "intervene to lift the siege and put pressure on Addis Ababa to reach negotiations to end the war."

The air raids are the first since the renewed confrontations, and since the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral ceasefire and declared a humanitarian truce last March.


Expected scenarios

Regarding the scenarios of new confrontations between Addis Ababa and the Tigray Front, Muhammad Ali said that the situation is open to several possibilities, according to the main objective of the clashes.

He considered that the renewed fighting may be just an attempt to attract the attention of the international community focused on the Ukrainian war, or it may be a maneuver by one of the parties to push down the negotiation ceiling.

The researcher expected a sharpening of the escalation according to a set of indicators, the first of which is that the battles will continue for 3 days without any conciliatory gesture, in addition to the government’s statement in which it announced that it will bomb military installations and use the air force, as well as the Tigray Front’s seizure of 600,000 liters of fuel in the warehouses of the World Food Organization. It is also an indication of the possibility of using it to move its war mechanisms.

Yesterday, Friday, the government accused the LTTE of violating the declared ceasefire and humanitarian truce, and said it would take measures against military targets in Tigray. The Ethiopian Government Communications Office called on the international community to "condemn the Tigray Front and put pressure on it to adopt the peace option."

Muhammad Ali did not rule out that the new conflict would turn into a comprehensive confrontation, especially in light of what he called the absolute silence of the international community.

He added that this comprehensive confrontation, if it occurs, will be more violent and bloody than the previous rounds, for two main reasons, namely the failure of the negotiated solution and the continuous military build-up by the two sides of the conflict during the past months.