Turkey and the Syrian regime..political and economic gains that support rapprochement and reconciliation

ANKARA - On August 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu sparked a storm of controversy, when he revealed a short conversation he had with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad, calling for "reconciliation between the regime and the opposition in some way.

Cavusoglu's conversation - on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement meeting 10 months ago in Belgrade - raised doubts about Turkey's desire to abandon its supportive approach to the opposition and demand a political transition in Syria.

The controversy raised by these statements did not last. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cut doubts when he stated - on his return trip from the Ukrainian city of Lviv last Friday - that his country does not aim to defeat Bashar al-Assad in Syria, as he said, "Advance steps must be taken. with Syria in order to sabotage plots against the region.

Erdogan added that his country "has no ambitions in Syria, and attaches importance to its territorial integrity, and the regime must realize this," and added, "Dialogue between countries cannot be abandoned, it can take place at any time, and it must be done."

Erdogan: Turkey does not seek to defeat the Assad regime (Reuters)

No preconditions

While the statements of Turkish officials were preceded by press reports, some of which claimed that a meeting was being prepared between Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the Shanghai Organization summit, the Turkish Foreign Minister denied planning for this meeting, stressing that Assad was not invited to the summit, but stressed that “it is not for Turkey.” Preconditions for dialogue with Damascus.

The Turkish journalist - close to decision-making circles - Abdul Qadir Salafi revealed that he asked if Erdogan would meet with Assad, adding that the answer was: "At the present time, there is no expected contact at the political level," but added: "Be careful, it was said: In At the moment, he did not say: No.

For his part, writer Mehmet Barlas - in the Turkish (pro-government) newspaper Sabah - saw that "Assad is one of the victims of the American-made Arab Spring." And spoiling the Turkish-Syrian relations significantly, to the extent that he convinced Erdogan that Assad will fall after a short period,” and indicated that “work is being done anew to restore relations at the diplomatic level.”

Groundless Convergence

While the new Turkish approach towards the Syrian file seems closer to a reversal of attitudes, the Syrian opposition, which often prefers silence in this situation, rules out a serious rapprochement between Turkey and the regime, at a time when observers refer the whole issue to Ankara's desire to reap immediate political and economic gains. , without waiting for this path to reach its end.

Commenting on Al-Jazeera Net on the new Turkish position, a member of the political body in the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, Yahya Maktabi, says that they respect the internal affairs and orientations of all countries, but he stressed - at the same time - the "option of political transition in Syria, based on decisions international law and its implementation, in particular the Geneva 1 statement and resolution 2254.

The leader of the Syrian opposition reminded that "there will be no stability or security for Syria and neighboring countries, nor the return of refugees, except by getting rid of Bashar al-Assad and the major criminals with him."

While expressing the opposition's appreciation for what Turkey has provided to the cause of the Syrian people at all levels, he said, "We do not see a coherent ground for a rapprochement between Turkey and the Assad regime, because his regime has not only committed its crimes and terrorism against the Syrian people, but its evils have reached neighboring countries, especially through His support for the Democratic Union Party,” a party that Turkey accuses of being linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, and labels them as terrorists.

Syrian refugees fear the normalization of countries with the Assad regime and the possibility of forcible return to their (European) country

dangerous aspects

For his part, the academic and political expert Mahmoud Al-Hamza warned of the consequences of the return of relations between Turkey and the Syrian regime to its previous era, expressing his belief that "reconciliation, if it occurs, will bring disasters to Turkey."

The academic - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - pointed to what he considered serious negative aspects of the Turkish rapprochement with the Syrian regime, and said that "the Kurdistan Workers' Party worked with the supervision and support of the (Syrian) regime against Turkey and against the Syrian revolution, and therefore the Turks should not be under the illusion that the Assad regime will be a neighbor." He is kind, respects borders, and does not interfere in Turkish affairs."

The advanced Turkish position towards the Syrian regime was met by the latter with a call for dialogue, but in a less enthusiastic language, as the regime’s foreign minister confirmed - during his visit to Moscow a few days ago - that his regime “will not set any conditions for dialogue with Turkey, but we demand Ankara to withdraw from Syrian territory, and to stop supporting the Syrian regime.” armed groups".

Refugees and the economy

Analysts believe that Turkey's gains from rapprochement with the Syrian regime in terms of the refugee file and support for the economy, and through strengthening relations with Russia, are among its most prominent goals behind its new policy, regardless of the possibility of actually restoring relations between the two parties.

In this regard, Mahmoud al-Hamza expresses his belief that "Turkey has not entered seriously into the issue of reconciliation, knowing that they are discussing this matter, and there may be secret negotiations, but there are no serious results."

The political expert pointed out that behind the Turkish efforts are internal factors such as preparing for the elections and what is related to confronting the opposition's propaganda.

He suggested that the Turkish president "wants to calm the situation at home and return the refugees to northern Syria and other cities."

On the economic front, Reuters said that the Turkish economy received support from Russia this summer, through cash flows that amounted to about $ 5 billion, in addition to a significant increase in the number of Russian tourists.

Meanwhile, the central bank’s net foreign exchange reserves have nearly tripled since early July and reached $15.7 billion, according to the same source.

As for the adviser on economic and investment issues residing in Turkey, Jalal Bakkar, he explained that the money that was transferred to Turkey from Russia amounted to more than 6.7 billion dollars, between cash flow and direct and indirect investments, concentrated in the real estate sector and then energy, in addition to the transfer of some Russian factories and production lines.

Bakkar added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that this contribution led to the revival of the Turkish economy and the rise of the Istanbul Stock Exchange index.

He pointed out that the Russians were the most investors in the real estate sector last July, buying more than 1,273 properties, and considered it "a very huge and historical number in one month."

While Bakkar saw that "the recent political understandings are what brought stability to the Turkish economy," academic and political expert Mahmoud al-Hamza stressed that "Turkey has started this path, but reaching the final goal is neither soon nor easy."