It represents a major change in Ankara's policy towards Damascus

Turkey may sacrifice its Syrian allies to get rid of militias on its borders

• The Turkish army is protecting the Idlib enclave, where the opposition militants are located.

  AFP

• Cavusoglu and Mikdad meeting sparked protest by the Syrian opposition.

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Despite the absence of the Syrian war from the front page news, the conflict continues unabated, as well as the ongoing diplomatic efforts of groups and countries that are originally party to the conflict, and that seek to obtain deals that serve their national goals.

In the midst of these shifting sands, it is not surprising that rumors and commentaries are spreading through Syrian communities like wildfire, and that these spreading rumors elicit real reactions on the ground.

Çavuşoğlu and Miqdad meet

The responses came last week, represented by the admission of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, after his meeting with the Syrian Foreign Minister, Faisal Miqdad, which is the first known meeting between the two sides since the start of the civil war in Syria a decade ago.

Cavusoglu, who was speaking at a press conference in Ankara, also mentioned something else of interest. He said, “We need the Syrian opposition and the Syrian government to reach an agreement.

There must be a strong administration in Syria that can control all parts of the Syrian territory.” As much has happened in the disputes between Syria and outside powers over the past ten years, many political changes have been announced in the form of hints.

protests against the opposition

But what is not surprising is that Syrians inside the country and in Turkey were not willing to wait to see what happens.

Çavuşoğlu's comments immediately sparked protests in parts of Syria in the north that are still under the control of the opposition and Turkey, where most of the opponents of the Syrian government moved, while most of the rest of the Syrian state was retaken by the Damascus government.

There is an undeniable logic for Turkey, which is that it presents itself as a mediator between the Syrian government and the opposition. However, the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement puts Turkey in a bad position, as it will appear to be abandoning its Syrian allies, and undermining the plan that Ankara had spent several years and paid dozens of. Millions of dollars to create it.

If Cavusoglu's comments are realized on the ground, they will represent a major change in Turkish policy, and represent the abandonment of a group of allies in favor of victory over a group of militias.

Turkish first tip

Çavuşoğlu's comments are the first indication that Turkey could abandon its plan, which it has been following for several years, which requires the transfer of Syrian refugees to the Syrian side of the border, provided that they are under the protection of Turkish soldiers.

The comments come right after a meeting between the Turkish presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia's Vladimir Putin, and Iran's Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran as part of the Astana process, so it is not surprising that this is seen as a change of policy.

pocket protection strategy

Since 2016, Turkey has protected three of these enclaves along the Syrian-Turkish border.

Syrians who were seeking refuge in Turkey were transferred to these limited spaces, their children study in schools built by the Turks, they use the Turkish currency, and their lives are run by Turkish rulers, and they are supervised by Syrian soldiers, who receive their salaries from the Turkish government.

Although these enclaves were controversial, and represented a violation of the sovereignty of Syrian territory, they were a practical solution to the two biggest challenges facing the Turkish government, namely how to remove millions of Syrian refugees from Turkish territory, and how to keep militias away from the Turkish border.

The issue of Syrian refugees has become a local priority for Turks, as the overwhelming popular anger among Turks over the large number of Syrian refugees has not subsided at all.

In fact, this issue could fuel enough anger that the Turkish president loses the election next year.

Turkish broker

But if Ankara becomes a mediator between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the opposition, many of the benefits of these enclaves will collapse. In fact, even the mere hint that this might be an option, Cavusoglu said, could render the whole endeavor unworkable.

Most of those living in these Turkish enclaves do not want to return to the rule of President Bashar al-Assad, as they fear arrest, and this is true of the 50,000 Syrian opponents in the Syrian National Army, which is funded entirely by Turkey.

The people living in these enclaves fear the most, more than anything else, is the so-called “Sinjar moment”, meaning that they wake up one morning and find the Turkish soldiers have left, while the Syrian government army is behind them, and controls the place, a reference to the town that was The Yezidis live in it, who have been subjected to armed attacks after the withdrawal of the Kurdish forces, and many cases of killing and abuse have occurred to them.

Even rumors that these areas will be left by the Turks and left to the Damascus government's army, could stop many refugees from moving there, and would surely make the militants opposed to the Damascus government ready for such a moment.

Kurdish threat

The only reason that would lead to the plan to abandon these enclaves is the conceivable threat of creating a Kurdish homeland.

Ankara has fought a long war against the PKK insurgency inside Turkey, and it does not want it to have new allies from the Kurdish militias on its borders.

These militias, with the support of the United States, control very large parts of eastern and northeastern Syria, in areas where natural resources are concentrated.

The last thing Ankara wants to happen to this region is to become a de facto homeland for the Kurds, and Erdogan has made it clear that he is ready to use military force to prevent this from happening.

potential alliance

This highly likely potential alliance between the Kurds and the Damascus government is being considered by Ankara, but it will come at a significant cost.

In terms of the importance of the priority of the Syrian government, the desire to restore the eastern part of Syria from the influence of the United States is much more important than the small enclaves that Turkey created on Syrian territory, but if the agreement between Ankara and Damascus results in the return of the lands controlled by the Kurds, only the enclaves that It is controlled by Turkey far from the authority of the Damascus government.

It is inconceivable that Damascus, which has aggressively sought to regain its lands in one of the regions, can be satisfied with leaving other parts under Turkish control.

Ankara will realize that this means that it has to relinquish these enclaves to Syria, and its best plan now is to move millions of Syrian refugees with these enclaves.

Of course, solving Turkey's biggest challenges will make the others more difficult.

Faisal Al Yafi is a freelance journalist who has worked in the Middle East and Europe

Cavusoglu's comments sparked protests in parts of Syria in the north still under opposition control and Turkey, where most opponents of the Syrian government moved, while most of the rest of the Syrian state was retaken by the Damascus government.

Ankara has fought a long war against the PKK inside Turkey, and it does not want it to have new allies from the Kurdish militias on its borders.

These militias, with the support of the United States, control very large parts of eastern and northeastern Syria.

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