What do Indians think about the dream of a century-old independent country?
[Global Times reporter Yuan Jirong, Global Times special correspondent Wang Haiying and Liu Yupeng] "We must turn India into a developed country in the next 25 years, in our lifetime." On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of independence on August 15, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a speech at the Red Fort in New Delhi, describing such an "Indian dream" to the people.
In 2047, the 100th anniversary of India's independence, what kind of country will India become?
Regarding this issue, Indian public opinion and some Indian people interviewed by the "Global Times" reporter appeared very calm.
For Indians who believe that the government is always "drawing the cake" or that there will always be various political slogans before the election, the goal of "becoming a developed country at the centenary of independence" is a "resilient goal"; For 30-year-old young Indians, there is no reason not to believe that through their own struggles, they will have a "successful career" after 25 years and witness India "catching up with Germany and surpassing Japan", but they feel that the specific measures of the government are not so convincing. .
Despite being favored by the West, some Indian scholars wrote a book a few years ago, saying that "India's growth story is not well told", and how will India's new growth story be presented in the next 25 years?
'Resilient goals' and 'campaign generosity'
For the past few days, there has not been much discussion in the Indian media on whether the goal of "India to become a developed country in 25 years" can be achieved.
After a report in "India Today" titled "India must become a developed country in 25 years: Prime Minister Modi lays the foundation for India's next decade in his Independence Day speech", an Indian netizen named "Green" left a message saying, This is a "flexible target".
The Global Times reporter interviewed several Indian friends about how to look at the goal put forward by Prime Minister Modi of "India to become a developed country in the centenary of independence". Convincing concrete measures.
A 28-year-old young Indian who worked in the field of communications after graduate school said: "After 25 years, I will be 53 years old. I majored in business administration. I think I have a successful career at that time." A 40-year-old Professors from Indian universities who are engaged in social science research and have been to China many times said that when Modi was in power in Gujarat, he liked to learn from China's development experience of reform and opening up. Indians also likened the state to "Gujarat of India".
In his speech on Independence Day, Modi's grand goal is a bit like describing an "Indian dream" to the Indian people, but this is somewhat like the generous speeches of Indian leaders at all levels in the election.
He believes that what needs to be done domestically in India is to carefully analyze and discuss how high the economic growth rate needs to be maintained and how to increase infrastructure construction to achieve this goal.
When it comes to the reform and development measures that the Indian government has taken or is taking in recent years, the Indian ordinary people recognize that the Modi government has successfully promoted the implementation of the tax reform bill and realized a unified tax system across the country.
Correspondingly, they believe that one of India's major current and future problems also involves "unification".
India has never been a completely centralized country, relatively loose alliances, different languages, multi-party governance at the central and local levels, factions, corruption... All these are actually interrelated, intertwined and linked Move the whole body.
A 50-year-old Indian small business owner told the Global Times reporter: "The biggest problem and hidden danger in India is the contradiction between castes and the widening gap between the rich and the poor, which will exacerbate the already serious society. contradiction."
In his speech, Modi, who was born on September 17, 1950, set national development goals for India at the centenary of independence, but he did not provide much detail on his vision of how to make India a developed country in the next 25 years.
Modi's mention of supporting domestic power, defense and digital technology development is not enough to support India's policy orientation to become a developed country.
As Asi, a visiting professor at the University of Delhi, said, whether India's goal of becoming a developed country in 25 years will definitely be achieved, and what is the specific definition of a developed country at that time, it should be a "special developed country" with Indian characteristics.
Assi told the Global Times reporter that India has cancelled its five-year plan since 2017, and instead the Modi government will determine the strategic development goals based on India's actual situation.
Assi said that he knows that China's "two centenary goals" have attracted worldwide attention, while the Indian government did not have a similar "centenary goal" before. This time Modi's goal for the centenary of independence will naturally attract international attention. s concern.
On August 16, Russia Today TV quoted the British "The Times" as saying that India still has a long way to go to become a developed country.
India, the world's sixth-largest economy, is expected to grow by more than 7 percent this year, arguably one of the fastest among major economies.
But in terms of GDP per capita, India ranks only 144th globally.
As of 2020, the average wage for workers in India is $1,935 per year.
India is still classified as a "lower-middle-income" country, while China has become an "upper-middle-income" country, although the IMF estimates the figure will rise to $3,769 by 2027.
Russian media also analyzed that despite the current high unemployment rate in India and domestic tensions caused by being accused of pleasing the majority of Hindus, the ruling party of the current prime minister may still be the winner in the upcoming 2024 general election. By.
The 5 trillion target and the reality of over $2,000 per capita
The Red Fort has witnessed many times that Modi has put forward strategic goals related to national development since he came to power.
In 2016, Modi said there that he would double farmers' income within a few years; in 2018, he proposed India's goal of achieving a gross domestic product (GDP) of $5 trillion by 2025.
But neither goal has been achieved.
For India, the goal of "catching up with Germany and surpassing Japan" or even becoming the third largest economy in the world is not realistic.
According to IMF data for fiscal year 2021/2022, India's GDP is $3.2 trillion, and its per capita GDP is $2,280.
Some European and American media have emphasized that the World Bank currently classifies India as a low- and middle-income country, with a per capita GDP between $1,086 and $4,255.
India's slogan and dream of becoming a developed country is not the creation of Modi.
Twenty years ago, the founder of the Bharatiya Janata Party and then Prime Minister Vajpayee said in his Independence Day speech in 2002 that India would enter the ranks of developed countries by 2020.
During the subsequent "Tenth Five-Year Plan" (2002-2007), the Indian government accelerated the privatization of state-owned enterprises, liberalized the sale of some daily necessities including agricultural products, improved the investment environment, and streamlined government agencies. With an average annual economic growth rate of 7.8%, India has become one of the fastest growing countries in the world.
During the subsequent "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" (2007-2012) and "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" (2012-2017) period, the Indian Planning Commission also had ambitious development goals.
In January 2015, despite pressure from opposition parties, the Modi government officially abolished the 65-year-old Planning Commission responsible for preparing India's five-year plan.
In order to meet the needs of the market economy, the Modi government has also established the National Transformation Council of India.
The Global Times reporter has studied and visited India's National Transformation Council, and learned that the Prime Minister's Office of India has notified the agency to prepare India's fifteen-year vision, seven-year strategy and three-year action agenda.
In 2017, the agency mentioned China 67 times in a document, suggesting that the Indian government learn from China’s experience, and hope that through transformation, India will achieve an annual economic growth forecast of more than 8% in the next three years, and lay the foundation for future poverty reduction. .
Modi's goals can indeed be traced from some of the previous plans.
For example, the "Three-Year Action Agenda" drafted by the National Transformation Council of India and announced by the Ministry of Finance of India in 2017 is divided into seven parts. It plans a program for agricultural transformation and focuses on urbanization and balanced regional development.
The agenda also recommends measures to combat corruption, reform the civil service and electoral systems, reform the judicial system, streamline human resources, make extensive use of information and communication technologies to increase efficiency, build inclusive societies, and eliminate barriers and discrimination among social groups.
Overall, the "Three-Year Action Agenda" is to follow China's example to set up large-scale special economic zones, promote the pace of urbanization, develop a globally competitive manufacturing industry, and shift from an export-oriented strategy to an export-substitute strategy.
According to the "India Express" report on August 7, Modi also presided over the seventh council meeting of the National Transformation Council of India, which is the first offline meeting since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
"Increasing the collection of GST will require collective action from the central and states. This is crucial to strengthen India's economic position, especially to become a $5 trillion economy," Modi said at the meeting.
According to the assessment report of some international institutions such as PricewaterhouseCoopers, by 2050, India will be the most promising country among developing countries.
The report "Towards 2050" published by Goldman Sachs in 2011 also predicted that in the first half of the 21st century, India is expected to become the country with the fastest economic growth in the world.
According to pre-pandemic forecasts, India is likely to become the world's third largest economy around 2030.
This is based on an average annual growth rate of 6%-7% for the Indian economy until 2030.
After 2030, India's economy will increase in size, and its growth rate will slow down. It is expected that the average annual growth rate from 2030 to 2050 will be 4%-6%, and in 2050, it may reach or be close to the level of the United States in 2020.
By the middle of the 21st century, India's per capita GDP could exceed $10,000, equivalent to China's 2020 level.
However, even so, India's economy is still in the ranks of developing countries.
The "Five Resolutions" and Irrational Populist Decision-Making
"Modi will use the 'five determinations' to make India a developed country in 25 years." The Indian Tribune reported this way.
"Becoming a developed country in 25 years" was the first point of Modi's "five determinations" in his speech, followed by "getting rid of colonial mentality", "being proud of India's traditions and heritage", "building unity and unity" India" and "emphasis on civic duty".
Lin Minwang, deputy director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times reporter that these "five determinations" are the embodiment of Modi's governing philosophy and reflect Modi's ambition to reshape India's country and society - in addition to building Developed countries also called on people to enhance their national pride and self-esteem, and even called "India is the mother of democracy". The implication was to criticize the US and the West for pointing fingers at Modi's national governance and human rights issues.
Lin Minwang believes that Modi is calling for a united and united India, instead of emphasizing India's pluralism as the past Indian leaders have been proud of. He emphasized that the obligations of citizens are the first, rather than putting individual rights first.
However, Indian scholar Puja Mehra wrote in his Lost Decade (2008-2018): How India's Growth Story Turned into Storyless Growth: Since 1991, India has had two re-elections. The government of Singh and Modi, but during their time in power, India also lost more than 10 years of historical development opportunities. Official corruption in the former hindered economic reform, and irrational populist decision-making in the latter also damaged the economy. development of.
Five years ago, a senior director of economic affairs of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry told the Global Times reporter that India is currently at a critical point of economic take-off and rise.
But as recently as 2017, about 60 percent of India's nearly 1.3 billion people lived on less than $3.10 a day, according to the World Bank.
Some international public opinion has recently paid special attention to the fact that since Modi came to power, India's nearly 200 million Muslim population has been gradually marginalized.
In May of this year, the School of World Economics and World Politics at the Russian Higher University of Economics held a seminar online. Professor Sergei Lunev of the school gave a speech entitled "India as a Great Power".
Lunev analyzed from the perspectives of economy, politics, military, culture, population, etc.: First, India's economy is catching up with the United Kingdom, and will continue to maintain a high economic growth rate in the post-epidemic era; India is generally considered to be "the most One of the democratic Asian countries”, whose political system is considered close by the West; India has a high military budget and ranks among the top in arms imports, a large part of which is supplied by Russia; under Modi, the Indian government has also realized that It is necessary to develop "soft power"; as a big country, India has too many poor people, and such socio-economic indicators also make India criticized.
The Russian scholar concludes that India's weakness is that its development is "often questioned from within and too much expected to be recognized by the West".
In terms of foreign policy, Modi's "Indian Dream" is also inseparable from balancing relations with other major powers, especially with China and the United States.
Gary Schilling, a well-known expert in the field of economic and investment consulting in the United States, believes that India has a great advantage over China, and that is population growth.
Some foreign media speculated on this, "When will India surpass China economically", and the answer is that India must grow at a rate of more than 10% per year in order to approach China's economic development level.
Some British media also analyzed that although India has undergone tremendous changes since its independence from the United Kingdom in 1947, India still has a long way to go to become a developed country.