When the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out last February 24, many may not have expected it to last long, but what happened is that this war is about to complete 6 months, with no signs of its approaching end.

On the contrary, there are possibilities that this war will be prolonged, as a report by the French news agency explains, in which I spoke to experts and asked them questions such as:

Can the war last for years?


What are the factors that countries can rely on?


Will the conflict continue?

Analysts the agency spoke to believe that there is no reason to stop the conflict, as no settlements or peace negotiations are on the horizon, in light of the highly contradictory positions.

"The front is stabilizing. Even if the Russian army continues to launch (limited) attacks, we see that there is a loss of momentum; Moscow is on the defensive in a large part of the The advanced sites and in part of their back lines are in Ukraine."

"It is possible that the Ukrainian army will launch a large-scale operation to restore part of the Kherson region, or even the city of Kherson, in the short or medium term," he added.

For her part, says Marie Dumoulin, director of the "Wide Europe" program at the European Council on International Relations, "We are heading into a conflict that may be very long, given that there is the beginning of some form of balance of power between the two parties."

"We can think that (the conflict) may last until 2023 at least," she says, noting that presidential elections are scheduled in the two countries in 2024, and she wonders, "Will this play a role, and in what direction?"

For his part, Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev believes that the conflict may continue for "more years", and says that "Russia lacks human resources, it is mired in a quagmire. But Ukraine also lacks the human resources to launch a counterattack, and it does not have heavy offensive weapons."

According to Dmitriy Minnik, the Ukrainian army has the advantage of "supplying Western weapons and equipment that may be of the latest generation or superior to that of the Russian army, and the Ukrainians have the advantage of defending their lands and their morale is higher."

Can the Ukrainians continue their resistance?

Winter can be difficult for Ukrainian society, with the possibility of interruptions in the heating supply.

"The country is on the verge of default; 40% of schools will not be able to open at the beginning of the school year; there is a shortage of fuel," notes Marie Dumoulin.

The expert stresses that "the Ukrainians have a desire to achieve at least a tactical victory by winter, because this will re-motivate the forces and society, and justify their demands from Western partners."

Minnik believes that the Ukrainian army has the advantage of "supplying Western weapons and equipment that may be of the latest generation or superior to what the Russian army has, and the Ukrainians have the advantage of defending their lands and their morale is higher," he said.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was keen to confirm the unity of his people, saying that "the absolute majority of our people have no doubts that we will achieve victory for Ukraine."

"We are united, we have more confidence in ourselves now than we had several decades ago," he said.

In turn, Konstantin Kalachev points out that the "reserve of patience" of the Russians "is much greater than that of the Europeans", and believes that "Russia hopes to win by attrition."

Can the Russians bear the economic cost, especially?

"The Russian economy is not in crisis right now," says Chris Weaver, founder of the consulting firm Macro Advisory.

The government uses budget revenues from economic and industrial programs to "finance the army, provide social assistance, and support in the field of employment and income."

For her part, Dumoulin notes that the impact of sanctions is "starting to show in some sectors";

She says that "the Russian government has reserves; it also has a financial backing that helps mitigate the effects a little, but this will not last forever."

The effects of the downturn in economic activity may begin to be felt strongly in the fall.

"But I don't think that Russian President Vladimir Putin would give up his war just because economic activity is low," she adds.

In turn, Kalachev points out that the "reserve of patience" of the Russians "is much greater than that of the Europeans", and believes that "Russia hopes to win by attrition."


What is the expected scenario?

The most likely scenario is "a prolongation of the war".

“We can reasonably rely on this scenario,” Dumoulin says, noting that “a gradual slackening will begin to appear on the western side, and therefore it will not facilitate Ukraine’s support.”

This comes at a time when European countries have to ease the discontent of their people due to the high prices of energy and food.

For his part, Dmitriy Minnik says, "We are in a war of positions amid a slow Russian occupation of the territories, and a fierce defense of the Ukrainian army."

However, according to Dumoulin, "it will likely reach a point where Putin will rely on Western laxity and show some openness... urging Western leaders to pressure Ukraine to end the conflict on Russian terms."

In her view, one cannot rule out a scenario in which "the Westerners continue their support for Ukraine, and at some point the balance between Russian and Ukrainian forces on the ground will be adjusted in favor of Ukraine," even if it is the least likely scenario.

According to Minek - who remembers the demonstrations last March in Russia against the war on Ukraine - "what may exacerbate the situation between the Russian authority and the rest of civil society is the declaration of war and martial law or general mobilization."

He notes that "it will be difficult to control the situation in major cities such as Moscow or St. Petersburg, where the obsessive rhetoric against the West has less impact," he said.