A scenario for the possibility of a war between the major powers

In a hypothetical conflict, China is approaching the point of global priority

• The Chinese aircraft carrier Yuanang during exercises in the Yellow Sea.

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• China is monitoring the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

  AFP

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The study authors came up with two scenarios for a systematic war between the United States and China: The first envisions a low-intensity conflict unfolding in many parts of the world, across many domains, and over many years.

As for the second scenario, it envisions a high-intensity war resulting from the low-intensity war, and the occurrence of aggressive actions by the two countries to destroy the opponent's ability to fight the war, and it carries with it a very high risk of escalation to the most destructive levels.

The American Research and Development Corporation (RAND) recently published a study in about 120 pages entitled “The Return of Great Power War,” prepared by a number of researchers, led by senior researcher in the field of defense and international affairs, Dr. Timothy Heath, and a researcher in the field of policies in the institution, Kristin Gunness.

Through careful analysis of current and historical data of relevant factors, expected trends, and research-based predictions, the researchers imagine several scenarios for a systematic conflict between the United States and China under hypothetical conditions in which China is close to reaching a point of global priority.

Based on academic and research findings related to the likely course of international security and war in the coming years, China's position on future war, relevant past major power experiences, and historical patterns of interstate wars, the study's authors attempt to explore the possibility of a war related to the power shift between the United States and China.

The authors of the study came up with two scenarios for a systematic war between the United States and China: Imagine.

The first is a low-intensity conflict unfolding in many parts of the world, across many domains, and over many years.

As for the second scenario, it envisions a high-intensity war resulting from the low-intensity war, and the occurrence of aggressive actions by the two countries to destroy the opponent's ability to fight the war, and it carries with it a very high risk of escalation to the most destructive levels.

Both scenarios occur in the context of a deeply fragmented international situation, in which the US and Chinese militaries are under severe strain as a result of the continuing war effort, while dealing with a range of unconventional threats and responding to demands for support from struggling partners.

Although the study's authors' analysis relates to a hypothetical conflict situation in which China is close to attaining a global priority, their findings could inform defense planning for potential contingencies even for the time being.

One of the most prominent findings of the researchers is that any systematic conflict between the United States and China is likely to extend to all parts of the world, and to all areas, including cyber and outer space.

Such a conflict will take a systematic form, and may last for years.

The conflict will not end unless one of the two sides gives up the fight and admits its submission to the other.

The U.S. and Chinese militaries could also find themselves under too much pressure in a systemic conflict due to the competing demands of continuing the war effort, dealing with a range of acute transnational threats, and helping partners meet their security challenges.

The researchers also found that any low-intensity war could involve large-scale fighting conducted primarily by partner states and non-state groups, and the risk of escalation would remain high as either side would tire of the indecisive nature of such fighting and seek more ferocious actions to put an end to it. for war.

Researchers believe that the PLA may favor fighting US forces in low-intensity warfare, operations that rely on less expensive and less risky weapons, and methods such as long-range precision attack, cyber operations, and support for irregular forces.

The researchers concluded that although such a war might begin with less modest war aims, it would be difficult to resist the temptation to escalate, due to the underlying motive of hegemony over the other side.

The fighting could include large-scale missile attacks throughout the Indo-Pacific region with the aim of destroying US military power.

At the end of their study, the researchers made a set of recommendations, including the need for US planners to take into account a broader set of contingency possibilities for a low- or high-intensity war with China, which could involve combat options beyond hotspots such as Taiwan.

Planners should consider the possibility of a conflict between the United States and China, not a single battle or clash over a particular hotspot such as Taiwan, but a series of naturally connected, geographically dispersed engagements between U.S. and pro-Chinese forces spanning many areas.

Such a conflict could last for years, and would put severe pressure on the US military, which already faces demands to provide security assistance to allies and partners, and may also deal with severe cross-border threats.

The United States should consider enhancing its ability to fight a low-intensity war, which is a more likely scenario than a high-intensity war for any conflict between the US and China.

Planners must also ensure the ability to defend and secure vital critical points in the Middle East and along the Indian Ocean.

They should also focus on building alliances, weapons, and platforms that help excel in getting information.

• The study authors came up with two scenarios for a systematic war between the United States and China: The first envisions a low-intensity conflict unfolding in many parts of the world, across many fields, and over many years.

As for the second scenario, it envisions a high-intensity war resulting from the low-intensity war, and the occurrence of aggressive actions by the two countries to destroy the opponent's ability to fight the war, and it carries with it a very high risk of escalation to the most destructive levels.

• Researchers believe that the Chinese military may favor fighting US forces in a low-intensity war, operations that rely on less expensive and less risky weapons, and means such as long-range precision attack, cyber operations, and support for irregular forces.

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