ISTANBUL -

Less than a year before Turkey's upcoming June parliamentary elections, the competition between the ruling coalition and the opposition coalition is heating up after a series of opinion polls showed the government could lose the parliamentary majority and decline in popularity, against the backdrop of the deteriorating economic situation.

But the ruling coalition seeks to influence the convictions of the Turkish street through positive economic indicators to start pumping the discovered gas next year.

The inflation rate last July reached 79.6% on an annual basis, which is one of the highest rates of inflation in the world, while the trade deficit rose by 184.5% in last June on an annual basis, to reach 8.16 billion dollars, according to the figures of the Turkish Ministry of Trade. .

For its part, "Moody's" credit rating agency lowered Turkey's credit rating from B2 to B3, the lowest level in its history.

Moody's said increasing pressures on the balance of payments and the risk of a further decline in foreign exchange reserves were behind the rating.

The value of the Turkish lira has fallen this year by about 25%, after it fell by 44% last year.

While the lira is currently trading near 17.95 against the dollar, the Turkish Central Bank raised its forecast for the dollar price against the Turkish lira for the end of this year from 18.99 to 19.65.

While the Turkish economy, on the other hand, is not without positive indicators, the government is looking forward to more of them in terms of gas extraction.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Donmez recently announced that the gas discovered in the "Saqaria 1" field will enter the pumping phase in the first quarter of 2023.

The official announcement of the expected date of putting Turkish gas into use opened a discussion about the availability of the capabilities required to achieve this in practice, and its repercussions - if it happened - on the local economy, and then on the attitudes of voters.


The contribution of gas to the Turkish economy

Turkish economic researcher Yilmaz Ozturk believes that with the start of production scheduled for next March, according to the Turkish government, 30% of domestic gas needs will be met, while saving about 4 billion dollars to the Turkish treasury.

Ozturk adds, to Al Jazeera Net, that the production will be at a local cost, and this will be reflected in the form of a decrease in gas prices, given that the production will be using local means such as ships and platforms.

But he pointed out that gas extraction could not be better than the proposed timing, because about 25% of Turkey's long-term gas contracts expired last year.

While the Turkish economy is currently suffering from the high costs of energy imports due to the global energy crisis, it is certain - according to the researcher - that the national gas will contribute to providing the value of about 900 million cubic meters of gas in the first quarter of 2023. Ozturk believes that the most important results of this It is manifested in a significant reduction in inflation as a result of lower costs of energy used in the industrial sector.

While experts do not disagree about the expected significant contribution of gas discovered in the Black Sea and any other subsequent discoveries, there is a discussion about the realistic expectations of starting gas extraction and the impact of its use on macroeconomic indicators in the first quarter of 2023.

The energy expert and head of the international resources company "Global Resources Corporation" for strategic consultancy Mehmet Ogucho believes that extracting, processing and using local natural gas takes at least 7 to 8 years, Ozturk was quoted as saying.

But the former director of Turkey's Botaş Oil Pipelines, Gökhan Yırdım, who acknowledges that production takes time, stressed that it could be speeded up using different technologies.

Gas a "turning point" in the elections

And if the scenario of starting to use domestic gas is achieved in March 2023, will the Turkish economy witness enough positive indicators to make a shift in the attitudes of Turkish voters in favor of the president and his party (Justice and Development)?

Turkish writer and political analyst Yusuf Kateboglu believes, in an interview with Al Jazeera Net, that the gas discovered in the Black Sea will have a "very large positive impact" on the economy, expecting to announce other discoveries before the end of this year in the field of gas, in addition to oil extraction, and the start of operating Akkuyu nuclear plant, stressing that these and other "achievements" will affect the decision of the Turkish voter.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Kateboglu said, "There are surprises that we will witness, and an improvement in the economy," and added, "It is still too early to say that the economic conditions that negatively affect and disrupt the Turkish voter will continue at this pace."

He believed that President Erdogan will not find it difficult to win the presidential elections in view of the above.

Despite this, the Turkish writer acknowledged that the AKP and its nationalist ally "may have difficulty obtaining a majority in parliament", although it is still too early to predict the results, according to the spokesperson.

For his part, Mehmet Celik, editor-in-chief of the Turkish English-speaking newspaper, Daily Sabah, believes that the government’s efforts to transform the country from a country that relies on abroad in the field of energy to a country that extracts and produces oil and gas, using sometimes soft and hard power, “will have an impact on Certainly in the behavior of voters."

According to the statements of the Turkish journalist to Al-Jazeera Net, this impact will be on two levels, one of which is strategic in the long term and the other in the short term;

It is related to the June elections.

And Celik admits that "the economy will certainly be at the center of the voter's decision, while the economy is in a bad shape."

He added, "If the gas discovered in the Black Sea is put into use, and this is reflected on citizens' heating and electricity bills prior to the upcoming elections, this will strongly affect their decision, and it will be a turning point in voters' attitudes."

He believed that "it is easy for the voter to put his trust again in the government without waiting for the expected strategic shift in the long term to occur when he sees its signs at the beginning of the road."