“Only God can remove me from the presidency.” A phrase attributed to right-wing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was among several troubling signals he sent that he might refuse to relinquish power if he lost the elections to his rival, leftist former President Lula da Silva.

With the presidential, congressional and state elections scheduled for October 2 approaching, Bolsonaro - a former army officer - is accumulating statements charged with skepticism about the possibility of a peaceful transition of power, at a time when opinion polls show da Silva's (76-year-old) investigation is progressing. Whatever.

Bolsonaro, 67, said - in a previous statement - that he sees 3 alternatives for his future: imprisonment, death or winning the presidential elections, noting that the chance of imprisonment is excluded because "no one on earth" can intimidate him.

This leads Brazilian analysts to believe that the Liberal Party candidate may follow the example of US President Donald Trump when he refused to admit losing the 2020 elections, as he spoke of vote tampering, accusing Democrats of stealing the victory from him, without providing evidence for that.

This prompted Trump's supporters to storm Congress on January 6, 2021, in an effort to prevent its members from ratifying the outcome of the presidential elections that resulted in the victory of current President Joe Biden, in an incident considered the most dangerous in the course of American democracy.

When Trump was elected president, Bolsonaro said, "I'm a fan of the Trump project because he wants a great America and I want a great Brazil."

There are common points between Bolsonaro and Trump. Politically, they are classified among the populists, and ideologically they are affiliated with the conservative right and use its religious slogans to mobilize the masses, and both of them adopted, in the face of the specter of defeat, the strategy of questioning the electoral system.

Lula da Silva leads Bolsonaro in opinion polls (Anatolia)

alarming signals

In the past months, the president's alarming statements have been repeated, and have raised speculation that he may not give up power easily, which would enter a spiral of turmoil in the largest country in Latin America, with a population of 216 million.

In late July, Bolsonaro - who spent 15 years in the military - said the army was on his side.

Bolsonaro has been trying to persuade the military to back his criticism of the electronic voting system adopted since 1996, and his talk of the military's support for him has raised fears that he may not concede if he is defeated in the presidential election or try to encourage a military coup.

Bolsonaro had repeatedly attacked the judges of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, saying that the electronic voting system allowed fraud, but his allegations were rejected, not only by government officials, but also by leaders in his party.

The Guardian says that although Bolsonaro has the support of many in the military, it is not clear whether the military leadership is sabotaging the democratic process.

And the newspaper quotes - according to researcher Pablo Nunes - that conditions are currently available in Brazil to produce a situation similar to what happened in the United States after Trump refused to recognize the outcome of the presidential elections.

Nunes adds that although violence is inherent in Brazilian reality, it has escalated through Bolsonaro's use of violent rhetoric as a means of resolving political disputes.

Last week, Bolsonaro, during a meeting with farmer leaders, called for guns, and according to the Sou da Paz Institute, firearms licenses for the first two years of his rule rose by 65%.

The Guardian quoted Felipe Borba, a researcher at the University of Rio de Janeiro, as saying that he may be preparing his supporters to act if they lose the elections.

It is ironic that the current president - who is accused by his opponents of adopting violent rhetoric - was the victim of a stabbing he was subjected to in September 2018, weeks before the presidential elections, and is still suffering from its effects until now.

Bolsonaro denies his opponents' accusations of stoking violence and plotting a coup against the election results, and rejects his categorization within the extreme right.

A demonstration in support of democracy took place a few days ago in Sao Paulo (Reuters)

the specter of violence

The election campaign was officially launched yesterday in preparation for the October 2 poll, to which more than 156 million voters were called, amid fears of violence in a state of intense political polarization.

The Labor Party candidate (Da Silva) was supposed to start his campaign on Tuesday morning at a factory in Sao Paulo, but the meeting was canceled after the security team detected potential risks, according to Brazilian media.

Lula da Silva's campaign has asked him to tighten his protection to counter potential threats to him, which is why he wears a bullet-proof vest, according to the Guardian.

As for Bolsonaro, he went to the town of Juiz de Fora (southeast of the country), where he was stabbed 4 years ago, where he gave a speech on a theater built on the same intersection where the stabbing took place on September 6, 2018.

"The city in which I was born again," Bolsonaro said, addressing his supporters under the slogan "God, homeland, family and freedom."

"Lola, thief, you are in prison," chanted supporters of the far-right leader, who wore T-shirts in the colors of the Brazilian flag.

And in the past few weeks, in the midst of demonstrations on both sides, supporters of Bolsonaro attacked two gatherings of da Silva supporters, and shot dead an official of the Workers' Party in the city of Foz de Iguaçu, in Baraza state, on the border with Argentina, according to the Brazilian newspaper Guardian.

According to Bloomberg Agency, the outbreak of violence during the elections may lead to the intervention of the army, while not imagining the possibility of a split in the security establishment.

"Bolsonaro wants to present himself as God's chosen one who has survived the assassination attempt," political analyst Adriano Loreno of the Prospectiva consultancy told AFP, considering that these elections are "the most polarizing since the restoration of democracy" after the period of military tyranny between 1964 and 1985.

With regard to the elections themselves, the latest opinion poll conducted by the IPEC Institute stated that the former leftist president had 44% of voting intentions in the first round, compared to 32% for the current president (Bolsonaro).

Previous polls gave da Silva a larger lead, but Brazilian analysts believe that the difference will narrow as the vote approaches.

Analysts say da Silva is more popular with young people than Bolsonaro, which gives him a greater chance of winning the election.

The former president, who took office between 2003 and 2010, faced corruption charges and was sentenced to 12 years in prison, of which he spent about 1.5 years, before the Supreme Court overturned his sentence.