Washington
- The United States has been hostile to the Taliban movement since its emergence in the nineties of the last century, until confronting it in a failed attempt to eliminate it militarily and ideologically after the events of September 11, 2011.
Over the course of 20 years, the American military machine, after its occupation of Afghanistan, did not succeed in curbing the influence of the Taliban. Rather, this movement was able to confront the American forces and the internationally recognized Afghan government, in order to restore its control over the capital, Kabul, and then control the rest of the Afghan lands, coinciding with the completion of the American withdrawal at the end of August. August 2021.
A year after the Taliban seized power, US interests in Afghanistan remain largely the same, but with limited US influence over the Taliban.
Kate Bateman, an expert on Afghan affairs at the American Institute of Peace, believes that Washington's interests in Afghanistan are still largely the same as they were before the Taliban seized power in mid-August 2021, primarily preventing "terrorist groups" in this country from threatening the United States or its allies, and maintaining On regional stability, protection of human rights, especially the rights of women, girls and minorities, and addressing the economic crisis that has severely deteriorated the situation of Afghans.
Leaders of the Taliban government celebrate raising the largest flag of the "Islamic Emirate" in Kabul (European)
The carrot and stick with the Taliban
Since the movement's control of Kabul, the Taliban's relationship with anti-American organizations, led by "Al-Qaeda", has become Washington's most important concern regarding the movement and Afghanistan.
Washington does not classify the Taliban among the "terrorist movements" in the lists of the State Department, but instead puts many of Afghanistan's leaders on the lists of international "terrorists."
Washington accuses the Taliban's interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, of being closely linked to al-Qaeda.
A UN report estimates that he is "a member of the broader al Qaeda leadership, but not of al Qaeda's core leadership."
A major proponent of the view that the Taliban would change, if appropriately matched, was Professor Barnett Rubin of New York University, an expert on Afghanistan, who claimed in a paper he published with the United States Institute of Peace in March 2021 that the United States should "abuse influence." which it enjoys toward easing sanctions on the Taliban, who are seeking international recognition and assistance.
At the same time, the United Nations issued a report last May indicating that 41 leading members of the Taliban serve in the cabinet or other high-level government positions in Afghanistan, and they are on the UN sanctions lists.
Today, the Taliban are far better armed than the Taliban that ruled most of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The movement now has thousands of American armored vehicles and M16 rifles abandoned by American forces that rushed to withdraw from their bases last summer.
Today, the Taliban also faces a much weaker political and military opposition movement in Afghanistan than it was before the attacks of September 11, 2001.
Consequences of the chaos of withdrawal
Some American analysts say that in Afghanistan we can see a mixture of the disastrous American withdrawal from Saigon-Vietnam in 1975, and the withdrawal of the summer of 2014 in Iraq when the forces of the "Islamic State" organization seized a large part of the country.
Indeed, this prediction seemed realistic, and the world watched as thousands of desperate Afghans tried or stuck to planes leaving Kabul airport last August.
On August 25, 2021, 13 American soldiers and at least 170 Afghans were killed outside Kabul airport by a suicide bomber sent by the Afghan branch of the Islamic State.
The Taliban took over the entire country even before the last American soldiers left the country.
The Biden administration also now faces a political dilemma of its own making.
With many millions of Afghans on the brink of starvation, Americans cannot turn their backs entirely on Afghanistan.
However, US officials believe it is difficult to help the Afghans without somehow supporting the Taliban.
The Biden administration has tried to ensure that all US aid to Afghanistan is managed in a way that it does not end up in the movement's hands, but realistically any help it sends into Afghanistan tends to help the Taliban stay in power.
The Americans doubt the Taliban's ability to implement the Doha Agreement in 2020, especially with regard to "fighting terrorism" (Al-Jazeera)
The dilemma of Taliban relations
There has often been significant skepticism within US policy circles about the Taliban's willingness to fulfill its "counter-terrorism" obligations under the terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement.
The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri (the leader of al-Qaeda), who was living in a safe house in Kabul belonging to the Taliban’s interior minister, on July 31, by a US drone strike, came to cast doubt on the Taliban’s fulfillment of its promises regarding the fight against terrorism, as the US government considered al-Zawahiri’s presence a clear violation of the Doha agreement .
Observers considered that the killing of al-Zawahiri reflects a major dilemma in the field of "fighting terrorism" and the possibility of the United States continuing to engage pragmatically with the Taliban on humanitarian and economic issues, despite its flagrant violation of its commitments to combating "terrorism".
However, defenders of al-Zawahiri's assassination believe that the operation proves the effectiveness of a remote counterterrorism strategy.
At the same time, Zawahiri's presence alone indicates that the terrorist threat emanating from Taliban-run Afghanistan is more serious than previously thought, and that successful targeting of al-Zawahiri is not necessarily evidence that drone strikes will be able to rein in the continuing threat from Afghanistan.