It seems that the path of escalation is moving towards more complexity after the crowds yesterday, Friday, of both the Sadrist movement and the coordination framework in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, due to the insistence of each of them to implement their demands in the way they wish, which opened the doors to several scenarios that al-Sadr may resort to, including the declaration of disobedience. civil and general strike.
Yesterday, Baghdad witnessed a united prayer for al-Sadr's supporters, this was met by demonstrations by supporters of the framework who demanded - carrying the flags of Iraq and the popular crowd and pictures of the Shiite Supreme Leader Ali al-Sistani and another for the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan - for the return of Parliament, the formation of a new government and respect for state institutions, as they demanded the Speaker of the House of Representatives. By ending the suspension of work and active action to vacate the Council and activate its legislative and oversight work.
In addition, they affirmed their adherence to the demands of the framework forces to nominate Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani as the next Iraqi prime minister, and rejected calls to dissolve parliament or prejudice judicial and constitutional institutions, calling for respect for the prestige of the state and not to infringe upon it.
Nuri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law coalition (the major coordinating framework forces), said, "The demonstrations made it clear without a doubt that the street cannot be controlled by one party without the other," in a clear reference to the Sadrist movement.
This complexity in the political scene comes 10 months after the last legislative elections and the failure to form a new government, and after hundreds of al-Sadr’s supporters stormed the parliament building on July 30, and announced their sit-in inside the Green Zone until their leader’s demands to dissolve parliament and go to new elections are met. , In addition to preventing the passage of the formation of a government headed by the framework candidate.
Legal Obstacle
The above political knot has increased the chances that al-Sadr will head towards other escalatory paths, especially after his demand by the Supreme Court to dissolve Parliament within a week.
Legally, the judiciary does not have the power to dissolve parliament, and what reinforces this view is a previous television talk by the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zeidan, in which he denied the possibility of the judiciary interfering in dissolving the parliament, in addition to article 64 of the Iraqi constitution stipulating that the parliament is dissolved by a majority vote. The absolute number of its members, and voting is at the request of one-third of the members of the Council, or a request from the Prime Minister, and with the approval of the President of the Republic.
When the House of Representatives is dissolved, the President of the Republic shall call for general elections in the country within a maximum period of 60 days from the date of the dissolution.
Salman expected that the Sadrists would turn to civil disobedience, and many of those affected by the situation in the country would join them (Al-Jazeera Net)
Civil Disobedience
Realistic readings indicate the impossibility of any of the Shiite parties going back, and this opens the door to several scenarios, including Al-Sadr’s continuation of his sit-in to force the framework blocs to accept the dissolution of Parliament, according to political analyst Dr. Haider Salman, who expected that some of the framework blocs would agree to Al-Sadr’s demand , bet that more time.
Observers believe that al-Sadr has more than one pressure card against the framework and the forces opposing it, including his declaration of civil disobedience, especially since he has many supporters and supporters within the state institutions, with his insistence on his position and the absence of a third party to reform between him and the framework, which is the strongest scenario - according to Salman- With confirmation that many of those affected by the current regime will join this rebellion if it is announced.
Al-Moussawi considered that Al-Sadr is still betting on putting pressure on the political parties to accept the idea of dissolving Parliament (Al-Jazeera)
The current, the frame, and the kazami
Dr. Salman’s opinion differs greatly from the opinion of political researcher Haider al-Moussawi, who reduces the possibility of al-Sadr going to a scenario of civil disobedience or a mass strike, considering that al-Sadr is still betting on the issue of pressure on political parties - including the framework - to accept one idea: dissolving parliament and conducting Elections under the government of Mustafa Al-Kazemi.
Al-Moussawi sees in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that the real dispute between Al-Sadr and the coordination framework is not over the dissolution of Parliament, but rather everyone agrees to dissolve it and go towards early elections, but the dispute is that the framework insists that a session of Parliament be held and the formation of an electoral government that lasted for one year, with the possibility of He relinquishes his candidate, provided that a settlement is reached by Sadr's acceptance of this candidate, and the government works to change the election law and then conduct it.
Al-Moussawi’s speech means that the framework refuses to hold the elections under the Al-Kazemi government, “for fear that cases of fraud and manipulation of the elections will be repeated, as happened in the last elections,” according to the framework’s view.
Al-Arar: Options are open to the Sadrist movement because it has several cards (Al-Jazeera)
The chest after the position of the judiciary
In agreement to some extent with the front that expects al-Sadr to go towards civil disobedience, political researcher Ziad al-Arar acknowledges that the options are open to the Sadrist movement because it has several cards, and this is what is likely to go to other sit-ins, including civil disobedience, which may be changing in more than one place. And conservative, and this depends on reality and developments and the outcome of the deadline given by al-Sadr to the Iraqi judiciary to consider the political blockage.
And if al-Sadr went to the civil sit-in, would it be for a temporary or an open period?
This is answered by the fact that it may be open or temporary in some places.
Regarding al-Sadr’s position in the event the judiciary refuses to dissolve parliament, al-Arar says that for every action there is a reaction, but that there is no intention from the Sadrist movement to escalate against the judiciary or official institutions, but he has an intention to continue public pressure by taking all means and measures to address the political blockage by going to early elections.
Al-Arar agrees with Salman that Al-Sadr will continue to the end, and will not back down from his demands until they are achieved by setting the date for early elections and working to change the approach to the political process.
Al-Faili ruled out that Al-Sadr would resort to using the civil disobedience card (Al-Jazeera Net)
The position of the Kurdish forces
As for the professor of political thought at Al-Mustansiriya University, Dr. Issam Al-Faili, it is unlikely that Al-Sadr would resort to using the civil disobedience paper, especially since he has many tools that can be activated in all Iraqi provinces, and he almost has dozens of treatments under his hand, and each of them has a time and place based on the most From a political team is preparing for this topic.
By referring to previous experiences with regard to civil disobedience, Al-Faili indicates - to Al Jazeera Net - that he contributed to disrupting all life and in all joints, and therefore he is able to fail any party.
He stressed that civil disobedience may be joined by liberal and secular forces and other politically unorganized forces, who are discontented with the current political situation.
Regarding the position of the Kurdish forces regarding the current situation, Al-Faili explains that these forces are basically divided, as is the case with the Sunni and civilian forces, but none of them wants to break the nature of the will to agree with Al-Sadr, because the political equation does not lie in the formation of the government, but also in what follows its formation.
He points out that the Kurds do not tend to have more escalation, especially that the hypothesis of dissolving the parliament may be part of the process of persuading the Sunni and Kurdish house, and this is clearly demonstrated by their talk that there will be no complaint in the event of elections.
This proposition leads Al-Faili to ask that if a parliament session is held outside Baghdad, as is being circulated now, will this step be exposed to the wrath of the Sadrist movement?
Tishreen forces and conflict management
During the past weeks, al-Sadr tried several times to court the civil and October forces emanating from the arenas of protests and demonstrations in 2019, in a move to gain their support against the reform he called for, but to date there is no official position for these forces, even if some statements appeared from them that stood with al-Sadr. .
However, no October forces are able to conduct any conflict management or adopt an initiative in conjunction with the current crisis between al-Sadr and al-Maliki, for two reasons: the first of which identifies the Iraqi journalist Mustafa Nasser as emerging forces with little knowledge and experience in the political play that extends internationally and regionally, and the second is internal divisions and disputes. Among them, which dispersed their decisions.
Nasser expects that these forces will be divided and dissolved in 3 areas: the framework, the current, and neutrality.
Pointing out that it is not possible to imagine "October" as a unified force, a deep organization, or an effective pressure force.
As for the political forces, they split against themselves, and some of them became identified with the current, others with the framework, and a third on neutrality.